What To Know About Sudden Rebel Gains In Syria's 13-Year War And Why It Matters

The Syrian civil war, a conflict that has lasted for 13 years and claimed the lives of an estimated half-million people, has once again captured global attention. A recent and unexpected offensive by rebel forces, spearheaded by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has led to the capture of Aleppo, one of Syria's most significant cities. This surprise development marks the first major attack on Aleppo since 2016 and signals a potential turning point in a war that has already left deep scars on the Middle East and beyond.

Aleppo: A Symbol of Syrian Conflict

Aleppo, a city steeped in history and once a vibrant hub of trade and culture, has been central to Syria's civil war. Before the conflict, it was home to 2.3 million people. In 2012, rebel forces captured the eastern part of the city, making it a stronghold of opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad바카라™s regime. However, in 2016, government forces바카라”backed by intense Russian airstrikes바카라”recaptured Aleppo after a devastating siege. The fall of Aleppo symbolized a significant turning point in the war, solidifying Assad's grip on power.

The current rebel assault on Aleppo, led by HTS, is the first since the city바카라™s recapture and represents a significant challenge to Assad바카라™s authority. The offensive extends into the surrounding countryside of Idlib and Hama provinces, with Syrian government forces scrambling to launch airstrikes and deploy reinforcements to halt the insurgents' advance.

Why This Offensive Matters

The resurgence of fighting in Aleppo comes at a precarious time for the region. The war in Syria had seen little change in territorial control in recent years, but this attack has the potential to reshape the battlefield. Charles Lister, a Middle East analyst, suggests this offensive could have "game-changing" consequences if the Syrian military fails to defend its positions effectively.

The situation is further complicated by the involvement of multiple foreign powers. Russia, a key backer of Assad, is preoccupied with its ongoing war in Ukraine, potentially limiting its ability to provide immediate support. At the same time, Turkey maintains forces in Syria and holds sway over the opposition coalition that includes HTS. The possibility of heightened tensions between Russia and Turkey looms large, as both nations have strategic interests in Syria.

The implications extend beyond Syria's borders. The conflict could become a destabilizing factor across the Middle East, especially as other regional tensions persist. The ongoing Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza and Hezbollah's involvement in Lebanon create an already volatile backdrop. The resurgence of fighting in Syria risks adding another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical landscape.

Who is Leading the Rebel Offensive?

HTS, the group spearheading the attack, has a complex and controversial history. Originally an offshoot of al-Qaida, HTS has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, first emerged during the early days of the Syrian conflict in 2011. The group initially engaged in violent extremist activities, including bombings, religious policing, and property confiscation from minorities.

In recent years, HTS has attempted to distance itself from its extremist roots. The group officially severed ties with al-Qaida in 2016 and has worked to present itself as a more moderate force in opposition-controlled territories. It has focused on civilian governance and cracked down on extremist factions within its ranks. For example, last year, HTS permitted the first Christian Mass in Idlib in years. However, critics argue that HTS continues to harbor and cooperate with armed groups that operate against U.S. and allied forces.

The Role of Foreign Powers

The involvement of foreign powers has been a defining feature of Syria바카라™s civil war. Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed militias have been instrumental in helping Assad maintain control over 70% of the country. Meanwhile, the U.S. has about 900 troops stationed in northeast Syria, primarily to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State (IS). Turkey also plays a significant role, both militarily and diplomatically, in supporting opposition forces.

The renewed fighting in Aleppo raises questions about how these foreign powers will respond. Russia바카라™s focus on Ukraine and Turkey's support for Syrian rebels could lead to increased friction. Additionally, Israel바카라™s recent strikes in Aleppo targeting Hezbollah and Syrian military assets add another layer of complexity. Such actions underscore the fragility of the situation and the potential for broader regional escalation.

Potential Consequences

The offensive has highlighted the ever-present threat of IS sleeper cells, which could exploit the chaos to regain a foothold in Syria. Although IS no longer controls territory, it remains a lethal force, capable of carrying out attacks in both Syria and Iraq.

Furthermore, the offensive could exacerbate Syria바카라™s already dire humanitarian crisis. Over 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, and millions more are internally displaced. A resurgence in fighting could displace even more people, adding to the strain on neighbouring countries and fuelling anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe, where Syrian refugees have been a contentious issue.

The unexpected rebel advances in Aleppo highlight the persistent instability of Syria's civil war. This escalation not only poses a formidable threat to Assad's regime but also threatens to drag the region into even greater chaos. Major global powers, including Russia, Turkey, and the U.S., must navigate this crisis cautiously to prevent worsening the already fragile situation.

As the battle for Aleppo unfolds, its outcome will likely have far-reaching implications바카라”not just for Syria but for the broader Middle East. Whether this offensive marks a turning point in the conflict or a temporary surge in violence remains to be seen.  As the fighting intensifies, it serves as a poignant reminder of the immense human suffering and geopolitical complexities that have defined Syria's 13-year war.