Book Review: 바카라˜War Time바카라™ Pins Hope On Diplomacy To Manage Conflicts

The world is believed to have had dreadful catastrophic extinctions in the past and, today with so many nuclear bombs piled up, the ultimate destruction does not seem inconceivable. Ambassador Rajiv Dogra바카라™s book War Time takes us through the contemporary geopolitical developments of the 21st century to give a sense as to whether the apocalypse is finally upon us. 

Ambassador Dogra's erudite narration of geopolitical developments stems from his long distinguished diplomatic career and scholarly reflections. He draws the reader바카라™s attention to the ongoing geo-political churning where outcomes could potentially redraw the international order. His persuasive assertion about the imperceptible decline of the West is based on inevitable trends바카라”two exasperating wars of the last century, prolonged Cold War, demographic deficit, military adventures in West Asia, migration flows, etc. The waning American hegemony, the author opines, will likely give in to significant accommodation and adjustments.

The book analyses various geopolitical situations and challenges confronting them. The diminution of Europe is attributed to its fallacy of unwittingly pushing its industry and technology to the 바카라˜factory of the world바카라™, and, more recently, allowing the Chinese BRI investments into Europe that further weakened the links within. Today, Europe, caught between an assertive China, a revisionist Russia and an erratic America, cannot guarantee its own security much as the French President Emmanuel Macron would like to believe. In the Gulf, Saudi바카라™s ambition to dominate the region clashes with Iran바카라™s vision for it. Islamism that replaced Arab nationalism has become a potent tool to help consolidate the newfound oil wealth of the Gulf Sheikdoms. A nuclear Pakistan obsessed with maintaining a proxy war with India could prove to be a formidable challenge in future.

The rise of China, Dogra argues, owes much to the US policy of appeasement towards China, which it sought to use as a counterweight to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In doing so, the West led itself into the Thucydides trap, quite oblivious to China바카라™s strategy of 바카라˜biding its time and hiding its strength바카라™, designed to restore the glory of its Middle Kingdom. The author notes that the gap in the strategic parity between the two powers will be filled in by a multipolar world constituted by emerging economies that will play a stabilising role on vital issues. Their increasing numbers will only strengthen their bargaining power to be able effectively seek persuasion and accommodation from the big powers.
 

The book analyses with pragmatism the shifting geo-political and economic weight towards the Indo-Pacific region, which sees it as a potential theatre of major conflict. In this configuration, Dogra thinks, the West over-values India바카라™s role and underestimates the politico-economic interdependence of China with the region. He would like India to be more actively engaged with the region and its 바카라˜Look East바카라™ policy, occasionally served as a placard during high-level visits, should seek higher trade and economic integration.

The author points to the growing dangers to liberal democracy and individual freedoms emanating from within the state, more directly from authoritarianism, technology, and terrorism, as well as due to increasing intolerance of the other바카라™s beliefs, cultures, traditions, etc. The unsuspecting intrusive age of all-embracing surveillance can be a potent tool in the hands of the state against its own citizens. Similarly, AI technologies could lead to an unprecedented boom but could spell catastrophic doom, if rubbed in the wrong way. The author laments that retreat of 바카라˜universal civilisation바카라™ and 바카라˜multiculturalism바카라™, based on the concept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (Sanskrit for The world is one family), is happening at a time when the world is fully interlocked.  

The author바카라™s prognosis of a major contestation in the not-so-distant future is situated in the South China Sea. The compelling logic portends China바카라™s proclivity to fight one or possibly two major wars before 2035, either with Taiwan or India before the major US-China war. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine presents an ominous picture where much is at stake for the West. Repulsing the Russian aggression assumes primacy, but a prolonged simmering conflict could render the US too exhausted and insolvent to take on a fight in South China Sea simultaneously. Not defending Taiwan or Japan is not an option, for it could run the risk of undermining the US global hegemony, and a retrieve from there could alter permanently the geostrategic balance.

In the emerging scenario, India would have to reckon with unacceptable risks of having to fight two adversaries simultaneously on either side. The author advocates India developing credible options and capabilities for blunting any aggression or misadventure. Its effective response should go beyond the usual 바카라˜fateful attitude바카라™ and India's foreign policy, currently trapped in linguistic swamp, ought to be pragmatic. Decreasing dependence on foreign defence equipment would enhance India바카라™s real strategic autonomy.

In the decade of War Time ahead, preparation for war might be necessary to avoid it. The war is not about right or wrong, it is all about who is left behind. Dogra pins hope on diplomacy to be able to manage conflicts through compromise, conciliation and common ground. The world needs to keep reminding itself that history is a consequence of its choice and also responsibility.
 

(The author is an officer in the Indian Foreign Service Officer)