Donald Trump바카라�s Eastern Bloc Problem 

In his influential book Democratic Ideals and Reality Halford John Mackinder summarises his Heartland Theory with the following statement: 바카라�Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.바카라� This theory suggests that controlling Eastern Europe is the first crucial step toward global dominance. Although the validity of this theory is debated, the ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a reminder that the region is still relevant and that great power competition over it continues.  

The Eastern Bloc was a term used during the Cold War to describe the group of Eastern European states that, while not officially part of the Soviet Union, aligned their military and economic policies with it and sided with Moscow in its strategic rivalry with the United States. This bloc included Albania, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Poland, and Hungary. Although geographically closer to the Soviet Union, these countries were also of significant interest to the United States, which sought to exert influence in the region as part of the broader Cold War competition. 

At the end of World War II, the Eastern Bloc was established to solidify Soviet influence in the region and serve as a buffer between the USSR and the West. The Potsdam agreement had divided Germany and put East Germany under the Soviet influence which also became part of the bloc. Two years later, the Truman Doctrine was introduced by the United States to counter the spread of communism and support democratic states threatened by Moscow.  

The Marshall plan was largely rejected by the Eastern bloc states due to Soviet pressure. In 1948, when the Soviet Union expelled Yugoslavia바카라�its former closest ally바카라�from the bloc, the Truman administration seized the opportunity to weaken Soviet influence by providing substantial economic aid to Yugoslavia. Although Yugoslavia maintained an independent foreign policy and chose to remain non-aligned, its neutrality was still a strategic victory for the United States. 

After NATO was established in 1949 and West Germany was admitted, the Soviet Union formalised its alliance with Eastern Bloc states by creating the Warsaw Pact as a counterbalance. At NATO바카라�s first meeting, the possibility of a counter-revolution in Albania to overthrow the communists was discussed. Launched in 1949, Operation Valuable lasted several years but ultimately failed for the US and its allies. 

Following Stalin바카라�s death, uprisings erupted across the Eastern Bloc. The 1953 protests in East Germany, the 1956 demonstrations in Poland, and the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 all prompted Soviet military intervention. In 1961, Albania broke away from the Eastern Bloc and aligned itself more closely with China.  

A particularly significant event occurred in 1968바카라�the Prague Spring바카라�ending in the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. While the US and its allies condemned the invasion, they refrained from taking action, as the US was already entangled in the Vietnam War and pursuing an arms agreement with the Soviets. This event led the US to informally acknowledge Soviet dominance in Eastern Europe. However, it also strained Soviet-Romanian relations, ultimately fostering Romanian sympathy toward the US and paving the way for President Nixon바카라�s historic visit. 

Meanwhile, the struggle extended into the psychological sphere. The US continued funding media outlets like Radio Free Europe to challenge Soviet narratives within Eastern Bloc states. Although no direct military action was taken, the US actively supported liberation movements in the region. This included both explicit and, at times, implicit backing of movements like Solidarity, providing financial aid, equipment, and training to undermine Soviet influence. 

Eventually, the weakening of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 triggered a series of Velvet Revolutions across the Eastern Bloc, creating an opportunity for greater US involvement. The United States began signing economic partnership agreements and expanding USAID initiatives, while Congress passed the Support for East European Democracies Act to assist Central and Eastern European states in building effective democratic institutions. Additionally, the US promoted educational exchanges and facilitated the spread of English through programmes like the Peace Corps. 

However, US influence in the region was not always strengthened through purely diplomatic or economic means. Following the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the Clinton administration initially provided security guarantees to the newly formed states. Over time, however, US involvement escalated militarily through NATO interventions바카라�first in Bosnia in 1995 and later in Kosovo in 1999. While NATO바카라�s bombing campaign drew criticism from major powers such as China and Russia, it did not deter NATO바카라�s continued expansion in the region. 

In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO, marking a major shift in the region바카라�s geopolitical landscape. This expansion continued in 2004 with the accession of Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia, further strengthening US influence in Eastern Europe. Former Warsaw Pact members that once stood in opposition to NATO were now integral parts of the alliance. Albania joined NATO in 2009, reinforcing this trend. Following Russia바카라�s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the US increased its military presence in the region, increasing troop deployments in Poland and Romania to deter further Russian aggression. 

However, based on President Trump바카라�s past policy decisions and current approaches, US policy in the region is likely to differ from traditional strategies. During his first term, the Trump administration emphasised bilateral and transactional relations with former Eastern Bloc states, rather than pursuing a multilateral approach. 

In his second term, Trump expressed skepticism about NATO and encouraged greater defence investment from European allies. With several former Eastern Bloc states failing to meet the 2 per cent defence spending threshold, it remains uncertain how the US will engage with these countries moving forward. Given their geographical proximity to Russia, the Trump administration may choose to limit deep multilateral collaboration with these states in order to manage NATO바카라�s influence. 

Additionally, the Trump administration reduced USAID operations, which had traditionally been a key tool for maintaining US influence in the region. This raises questions about whether alternative methods of influence will emerge or if there will be a decline in US presence and support. 

While former Eastern Bloc states may be inclined to distance themselves from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, there is also a possibility they could draw closer to Russia to avoid Ukraine바카라�s fate바카라�particularly if the war ends with significant Russian territorial gains. In this context, Trump may find common ground with right-wing governments in the region, such as Viktor Orbán바카라�s government in Hungary and Robert Fico바카라�s government in Slovakia.  

However, under Trump바카라�s 바카라�America First바카라� ideology, US engagement with these states is likely to remain more limited, and this may decrease further after the war in Ukraine concludes. Even if cooperation on certain issues occurs, it is unlikely Trump will press these countries to choose sides between the West and Russia. 

Ali Mammadov is a PhD researcher at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and a Fellow at the Center for Security Policy Studies.