The Deep Roots Of Africa's Problems

When one considers the ongoing conflicts in Africa, thoughts of war, unrest and political instability often come to mind. Despite numerous initiatives aimed at fostering peace, including the African Union바카라�s (AU) 2020 theme 바카라�Silencing the Guns바카라�, violence and instability persist in many regions. This theme, integral to the AU바카라�s Agenda 2063, envisions a peaceful, integrated and prosperous Africa바카라�a centenary since the founding of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 1963. Yet, the road to achieving this vision is riddled with obstacles as conflicts continue to emerge, simmer or recur across the continent.

In 2024, 35 non-international armed conflicts (NIACs) were listed in Sub-Saharan Africa. These included conflicts in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. An array of armed groups challenge government authority or fight each other.

Southern Africa: A Mixed Picture

In southern Africa, Mozambique바카라�s Cabo Delgado province has been a focal point of unrest. This northern region faced a localised Islamist insurgency, fuelled by external support from groups operating across the border in Tanzania. While Rwandan troops were deployed two years ago to quell the insurgency and establish a tenuous peace, deeper issues remain unresolved. Elections in Mozambique, though held regularly, often fail to address longstanding political contradictions, leading to sporadic violence. At present, post-election violence is serious.

In contrast, countries such as Botswana, Zambia and Namibia offer examples of successful democratic transitions. In these nations, peaceful elections have led to leadership changes, with opposition parties sometimes taking power. These successes illustrate the potential for democratic governance to mitigate conflict, provided there is a commitment to power-sharing and an acceptance of electoral defeat. Africa witnessed 22 elections in 2024.

However, southern Africa is not immune to broader continental challenges. Economic stagnation, inequality and governance issues persist, threatening the fragile stability achieved in some nations.

West Africa: A Region Under Siege

West Africa faces mounting challenges from radical insurgencies and political instability. Groups such as Boko Haram, Islamic State affiliates and other jihadist movements have established footholds in countries like Nigeria, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as across the broader Sahel region. These insurgencies thrive on weak state structures, porous borders and widespread discontent, exacerbated by underdevelopment and poor governance.

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Despite significant efforts, including the deployment of French and other Western troops, these insurgencies have continued to gain ground. In response, some West African nations have expelled Western forces, seeking, instead, support from Russia, including the Wagner Group (now the Africa Corps) and other military advisors. This shift reflects a broader trend of the declining influence of traditional Western powers in the region.

Nigeria, once the dominant power in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has struggled to maintain its role as a regional leader. Ongoing conflicts with Boko Haram in its northern territories have sapped its resources and political will. Meanwhile, recent coups in several West African nations have highlighted growing discontent with ECOWAS interventions, as well as diminishing respect for AU suspensions and sanctions. Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger are taking new routes to quell domestic contradictions.

Central Africa: Chronic Instability

Central Africa remains one of the most volatile regions on the continent. The Central African Republic (CAR) exemplifies the region바카라�s challenges, with over a decade of internal conflict and no resolution in sight. Several NIACs involving varied militias challenge the Government. Despite the involvement of external actors, including the Wagner Group, no single faction has been able to establish lasting dominance. The result is a protracted conflict that has devastated the country바카라�s civilian population and infrastructure.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the largest country in the region, also faces ongoing instability. While some areas have seen a fragile peace, others remain mired in conflict, fuelled by ethnic tensions, resource competition and weak governance. The July 30 ceasefire agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, facilitated by Angola, has reduced fighting, but concerns remain. Nevertheless, the overall situation in the DRC has marginally improved compared to previous years, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the chaos.

Eastern Africa: Growing Complexities

Eastern Africa has experienced some of the most persistent and complex conflicts on the continent. Somalia, which has been embroiled in civil war for decades, continues to grapple with weak central authority. The government in Mogadishu remains fragile, with limited control over regions like Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland, which operate autonomously. These areas are often backed by competing external powers, including Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey and Egypt.

The involvement of these external actors has transformed Somalia바카라�s conflict from a civil war into a broader geopolitical struggle. Periodic piracy, as witnessed in 2023-24, underscores the ongoing instability and its potential to impact global maritime trade.

Ethiopia, once a regional peacebuilder, has become a cautionary tale of how unresolved political ambitions can lead to civil war. The country바카라�s ethnic federalism, initially designed to balance its diverse population, collapsed into chaos when the Tigray region revolted against the central government. While Tigrayan forces were brutally suppressed, tensions with Amhara and Oromo militias have escalated, plunging Ethiopia into further unrest. Eritrea바카라�s re-emergence as a regional military power has added another layer of complexity to Ethiopia바카라�s challenges.

Sudan, too, has seen its situation worsen. Internal conflicts have escalated, with rival factions vying for power and control. In contrast, Kenya has made progress in conducting peaceful elections, learning from past disputes. However, the country still faces challenges like corruption and taxation issues, which sparked civil unrest earlier this year.

Common Themes in African Conflicts

A World Bank report opined that 바카라�the relatively higher prevalence of war in Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation of its countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failed political institutions, and economic dependence on natural resources바카라�. This continues. Although the conflicts across Africa are diverse, they share several of these commonalities:

• Youthful Populations and Rising Aspirations: Africa바카라�s youthful population is increasingly aware of global opportunities, thanks to education, urbanisation, the internet and social media. This awareness has raised aspirations for better living and governance. However, when these aspirations are thwarted바카라�whether by contested elections, nepotism or regional favouritism바카라�frustration often turns into unrest. The widespread availability of arms, originally intended for counter-terrorism, exacerbates the situation, enabling violent responses to political and social grievances.

• Elections, A Challenge: Elections, while a cornerstone of democracy, often become flashpoints for conflict. In many cases, losing candidates accept the outcomes, but in others, they contest them, leading to violence and instability. The clamour for democracy remains strong, as seen in Senegal, Ghana and Sudan. Encouragingly, 22 nations conducted elections successfully, demonstrating the resilience of democratic institutions in Africa.

• Economic Stagnation and Resource Competition: Economic progress in Africa has slowed in recent years, even in dominant economies like South Africa and Nigeria. Many nations emerging from conflict struggle to secure the resources needed for development. The limited availability of funds often leads to fierce competition among factions, further destabilising the already fragile political systems. Climate-induced events exacerbate this.

The Role of the African Union

The African Union, established in 2002 to replace the OAU, was designed to address conflicts through 바카라�African solutions for African problems바카라�. However, its peace and security architecture faces significant challenges:

• The Peace and Security Council (PSC): Tasked with managing peace and security across the continent, the PSC바카라�s interventions have often been selective, addressing some conflicts while neglecting others.

• The Panel of the Wise: Composed of respected former leaders and eminent figures, the panel is meant to mediate conflicts proactively. However, it is rarely called upon and often acts more as a symbolic body than an active conflict-resolution mechanism.

• The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS): Intended to predict and prevent conflicts, the CEWS has largely failed due to a lack of credibility and effective action.

• The Peace Fund: This fund was established to finance AU-led peacekeeping missions, but has historically relied on external donors. As a result, peacekeeping efforts often align with donor priorities rather than continental needs.

African Standby Force and Regional Standby Brigades: Designed to provide rapid response to conflicts, these brigades remain underdeveloped. Deployment delays, as seen in Moza­m­bique바카라�s Cabo Delgado province, often force nations to seek external intervention. Similarly, the East African Standby Bri­gade has struggled to address crises in Ethiopia and Sudan, while ECOWAS forces face resistance in several West African nations.

The African Union Peace and Security Council commemorates two decades, yet the AU peace and security architecture lacks the will, resources and political support to effectively shape its security scenario for which it was created.

The Way Forward

Africa바카라�s persistent conflicts are deeply rooted in political, economic and social complexities. While the AU and regional bodies have frameworks in place to address these issues, their implementation remains inconsistent. Strengthening these mechanisms, fostering political will and addressing underlying socio-economic challenges are critical to achieve the AU바카라�s vision for a peaceful, integrated and prosperous Africa by 2063.

Africa faces the globe바카라�s largest forced displacement crisis; many instances of political instability; territorial disputes; and, climate-change-driven security challenges. The journey toward peace is arduous, but with concerted efforts and genuine commitment, Africa can overcome its challenges and fulfil its potential as a global leader in unity and resilience. The Pact of the Future seeks stronger cooperation between the UN and regional organisations like the AU and emphasises Africa바카라�s key role in promoting an effective and inclusive multilateral system.

Generating greater employment through investment in African economies may prevent the radicalisation and resort to arms that mar African societies at present. This, along with equality of opportunity, reduced corruption and a greater belief in fair play will help Africa realise its potential.

(Views expressed are personal)

Gurjit Singh is former ambassador to Ethiopia and the African Union