The India-US Bromance: Partners As Well As Competitors

When Donald Trump feted Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a 바카라�great leader바카라� and was called a 바카라�friend바카라� in return, the spotlight was back on what is often labelled a 바카라�bromance바카라� that dates back to his first stint as President of the United States. The personal chemistry, after all, was intact despite the deportation drive in which at least 388 Indians바카라�going by Indian government figures바카라�have been sent back to India, including some in chains, since Trump바카라�s second inauguration. Then, on March 17, Trump shared a video link to Modi바카라�s conversation with podcaster Lex Fridman in which the Indian PM says, 바카라�I stand for India First바카라�, while Trump is for 바카라�America First바카라�, and also recalls the 2019 Howdy Modi event in Houston where the US president 바카라�sat down below (in the audience), listening to me speak바카라�, to praise his 바카라�remarkable gesture바카라� of 바카라�humility바카라�.

Earlier, on February 13, at a public appearance with Trump during his visit to the US, Modi said, 바카라�Borrowing an expression from the US, our vision for a developed India is to 바카라�Make India Great Again바카라�, or MIGA. When America and India work together, when it바카라�s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega바카라�a mega partnership for prosperity.바카라� Later, in his interaction with Fridman, Modi said Trump seemed 바카라�far more prepared than before바카라� and had a 바카라�clear roadmap in his mind, with well-defined steps바카라�. Indeed, unlike during Trump바카라�s first tenure, when New Delhi was nervous, not knowing what to expect, this time there is confidence that India has got his measure, and cautious optimism that any disruptions the mercurial president바카라�s unanticipated moves cause can be handled.

While the world is more complicated today than it was during Trump바카라�s first term, with Russia바카라�s war on Ukraine and Israel바카라�s war on Gaza having changed the security dynamic and competition among the global powers, the US president only seems to have become more brash. He now knows how to work the levers of power in Washington and winning the popular vote that had eluded him in 2016 has given him extra swagger. Moreover, he has Silicon Valley billionaires, including the world바카라�s richest man Elon Musk, backing him.

Convinced that America had been taken for a ride by friends and foes alike, and bent on browbeating opponents to get a perfect deal, Trump has unleashed a trade war on the world and every country, including India, will have to bear the brunt. In fact, the sticking points in India-US ties under Trump 2.0 are not strategic or geopolitical, but concern tariffs and market access for US goods. As economics is linked to livelihoods, it can play into India바카라�s domestic politics and potentially disrupt goodwill between the two countries.

Moreover, Trump바카라�s insistence on reciprocal tariffs and US market access to India바카라�s agriculture and pharmaceuticals sector would have repercussions for the Modi government. The Opposition has alleged that farmers바카라� interests have been sold out, referring to Trump바카라�s off-the-cuff remarks last week that India wants to cut tariffs 바카라�way down now because somebody바카라�s finally exposing them for what they have done바카라�. 바카라�What has the Modi government agreed to? Are the interests of Indian farmers and manufacturing being compromised? The PM must take Parliament into confidence when it resumes on March 10,바카라� Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh posted on X.

The government has been ambivalent over Trump바카라�s claims, with foreign secretary Vikram Misri telling the media that 바카라�we have in recent times entered into bilateral trade agreements based on tariff liberalisation with several partners바카라� and there are 바카라�ongoing discussions with several other partners on these issues now바카라�.

Handling pressure from the Trump administration on 바카라�opening up바카라� Indian agriculture would indeed be a challenge. 바카라�Delhi will need to play a delicate balancing game as there will be turbulence, especially on the commercial front,바카라� says Aparna Pande of the Washington-based Hudson Institute. 바카라�When most countries are bracing for the next round of tariffs or sanctions from Washington, New Delhi is relatively reassured. Modi has a good rapport with Trump, and India is key to USA바카라�s Indo-Pacific strategy and the desire to counter China바카라�s rise.바카라� Perhaps this is why India is not publicly crossing swords with the US over tariffs. It hopes issues can be quietly dealt with behind closed doors during negotiations on the trade agreement announced during Modi바카라�s meeting with Trump on February 13, which set an ambitious target of $500 billion for two-way trade to hit by 2030. India had already done some groundwork with finance minister Nirmala Sitaraman helping American businesses by slashing import duties on luxury cars, high-end motorcycles and other products in the budget.

Moreover, a bilateral trade deal talked of during Trump바카라�s first tenure will be pursued more vigorously. 바카라�The two sides are committed to complete the first part of the trade pact by autumn, before Trump arrives in Delhi for the Quad (India, Australia, Japan and the US) summit,바카라�바카라� says Observer Research Foundation바카라�s Harsh Pant. 바카라�As trade talks are already on, the entire tariff table can be negotiated under the agreement. India is unlikely to retaliate with counter-tariffs as Canada, Mexico and China have done.바카라�

Commerce minister Piyush Goyal was in Washington recently for talks. India바카라�s trade surplus with the US was around $45 billion in 2024, but as a rule hovers around $35.20 billion. The US is pushing India to buy more oil and defence equipment, including helicopters, F-35 fighter jets and the Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol-cum-reconnaissance aircraft, to ease the trade imbalance. 바카라�Does India expect a good deal from Trump?바카라�바카라� asks former Indian diplomat Ambassador K.P. Fabian. 바카라�Trump seems determined to carry on his trade war even though he runs the risk of a Waterloo in the November 2026 mid-term election. It is equally enigmatic that India is determined to have a $500 billion trade target with the US that wants to raise tariffs.바카라�

Earlier in March, foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said Trump is good for India at a talk in London바카라�s Chatham House. 바카라�We see a president and an administration바카라�moving towards multipolarity,바카라� he explained. 바카라�That suits India.바카라� Since 1945, the world has seen the US and the West as a bloc, but the needle is moving towards a 바카라�more national personality바카라� as the Trump administration바카라�s self-perception is more as a nation, Jaishankar added.

Trump바카라�s emphasis on stable energy prices, too, helps India. 바카라�From Trump바카라�s perspective, the one big shared enterprise we have is the Quad, which is an understanding where everybody pays their fair share바카라� There are no free riders... So that바카라�s a good model which works,바카라� the minister said.

Strategic convergence on China바카라�s growing economic and military clout in Asia and the world is the glue that has cemented India-US ties. The US regards China as its main rival ready to usurp its position as the world바카라�s most powerful country. US secretary of state Marco Rubio had earlier said China was 바카라�the largest, most advanced adversary America has ever faced.바카라� On its part, India has a territorial issue with China and needs to build alliances to thwart Beijing바카라�s land grab on its eastern and western borders. Determined to become the paramount Asian power, China is spreading its influence in India바카라�s backyard. Besides modernising its defence forces to counter Beijing, India is also tying up with the other major powers, with the US as kingpin, and the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Australia as the other partners.

Beyond China, India-US cooperation has now grown in every sphere, including emerging technologies that can leap-frog India바카라�s growth in future바카라�for instance, the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET). Converting India into a manufacturing hub, however, could clash with Trump바카라�s bid to get companies to invest and manufacture in the US. Meanwhile, Trump blows hot and cold on China. Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to his inauguration and a Trump-Xi rapprochement could change the equation between the US and India.

Seema Guha is a senior journalist covering foreign affairs

This article is a part of Outlook's April 1, 2025 issue 'World At Reset', which explores the ongoing changes in the global geopolitical order. It appeared in print as 'Bromance'.