Will Trump바카라™s Tariff War Lead To Realignment Of Global Forces?

Donald Trump has finally unveiled his reciprocal tariff plans against friends and foes alike that he believes had for too long fed on American generosity. In one stroke he has reversed US trade strategy that has promoted free trade and an open global economy since the end of the Second World War. The protectionist measures announced on Wednesday cater to Trump바카라™s support base. His defenders are against globalisation, believing that manufacturing jobs have moved out of America because of liberal trade policies which encouraged the dismantling of tariff barriers.

India has been slapped with a 26 per percent tariff on all exports, China 34, the EU 20, Vietnam 46, Taiwan 32, and the UK 10. Economists predict a trade war that will result in a recession.

Trump바카라™s message to the world is that there will be no more free lunches. Whether his disruptive economic gamble will pay off remains to be seen. If this is part of a` `shock and awe바카라™바카라™ negotiating tactic to force countries with which the US has large trade deficits to re-work bilateral trade agreements that will be fair and equitable to both parties, is not clear. In the long term this will benefit the US. Now, Trump says that America has for too long been taken for a ride by the rest of the world.

But there are downsides to this. Most countries will not take it lying down. China, Canada, and the EU are ready to strike back. Though Canada and Mexico are not affected by this round of tariffs, they already have substantial tariffs imposed on them earlier. The 25 per cent tax on all imported cars will have a devastating effect on Mexico, which has large car manufacturers operating from the country. Canada too will take a tough stand, with elections slated for April 28. Prime Minister Mark Carney바카라™s Liberal Party is pushing ahead of the Conservatives in opinion polls for now. The Canadian PM바카라™s refusal to bow to Washington has given him an edge. Ottawa had already announced 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of imported goods from the US; that includes orange juice, wine, spirits, and beer. Though Carney had announced these earlier this year, the implementation will begin now. Tariffs on aluminium and steel were announced in an earlier round of tariffs by Trump. For India, it is a mixed bag, but many are optimistic that New Delhi could now be forced to begin the long-awaited second-generation reforms. So far there is no mention of either agricultural or pharmaceutical products.

In the short term, tariff hikes will result in high prices for American consumers. Even if companies promise to invest in the US, it will take some time for their plans to yield results. Job creation will take a couple of years, and the political risks are high. More so as people are already affected by job losses thanks to Elon Musk바카라™s shedding of hundreds of jobs from what he called a bloated bureaucracy. Musk, as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is immensely unpopular. Also, cuts in social services and health care will add more pain to ordinary citizens.

Pascal Lamy, former WTO director general, said in an interview to CNN that Trump바카라™s tariffs are "likely to be bad economic news." He wants to negotiate with the US "with a gun in its pocket." The EU, according to him, should look for alternative trade markets to compensate for the high cost of selling to America. He said China could provide a good opening as well as several African countries.

Trump바카라™s tariff war will also affect America바카라™s global image, and if carried out with threats and intimidation, as it is being done, could result in a long-term realignment of the global power structure. "I think the tariffs will push geo-economics into line with President Trump's geopolitical leanings towards a system of spheres of influence rather than a US-led order (which he sees as unfairly costly to the US). China may gain somewhat, but it may have the effect of energising Western countries to trade more with each other, too. I worry about the economic impacts on the US and the global economy," says Joanna Spear, research professor at the George Washington University.

Many experts say that Trump believes in the 19th-century doctrine of dividing the world into spheres of influence, with the US as the preeminent power ready to take over Greenland if it must. China and Russia are the other two poles in Eurasia and Asia. There is, so far, no clarity on this, and it remains mere speculation, though several Western experts believe that is how the Trump administration looks at the world. But unlike President Vladimir Putin and China바카라™s Xi Jinping, Trump is likely to use America바카라™s strong economy and tariffs as the tool rather than the US military.

The world is in a flux with anxiety and uncertainty looming large. Few can actually predict what finally happens. But for now the world economy will hurt. Most countries will have to bear the brunt of Trump바카라™s tariff wars, including Americans.