The Pathan Suits: Can Imran Khan Lay A New Path For Pakistan바카라�s Fractured Polity?

Imran Khan looks a bit like he used to at the top of his run-up, keen as a rapier and bustling with intent. He바카라�s a man on a mission, addressing public meetings twice a day across electoral battlegrounds. Still extremely charismatic at 65, he바카라�s the only real crowd-puller whose presence can make a difference to a candidate running under the banner of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). Pakistan, like India, labours under the slippery first-past-the-post system바카라�a few floating votes can settle a game. And if anyone can swing the ball in dead air, it바카라�s the Pathan.

The schedule must be gruelling even for a physically fit Imran, but it doesn바카라�t show. The excitement of what comes next must be driving him. Pakistan is staring at an electoral lan­­dscape shorn of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, the duo that dominated politics in the post-Zia era. That바카라�s a huge, roiling vacuum. What that means is, perh­­aps for the first time since 1996, when Imran founded his party, there is unparalleled confidence about the PTI바카라�s chances in an election.

Read Also: Pakistan Is On Gradual Path To Democratisation

The party may have launched its manifesto after the other two main parties바카라�the Pakistan People바카라�s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)바카라�but Imran has been spelling out his agenda for months now. At a big rally in Lahore back in April, he gave his 11-point agenda for governance. A month later, he unveiled his 100-day action plan.

The PTI바카라�s senior leadership is confident enough to assert that it will lead the lower house of parliament and it바카라�s unfazed by the allegation levelled by all other parties that it is the 바카라�ladla바카라� (favourite son) of the powers that be. While the PPP and the PML(N) struggle with corruption cases and arrests (as well as security concerns for the latter), the PTI is seen to be racing ahead without any such impediments.

Read Also: The Many Merits In His Stars: Can Likely Pak PM Imran Khan Produce A Nuanced India Policy?

Imran바카라�s journey took 22 long years. But it finally seems that he might just get a seat at the power table. Till 2013, his party had not won more than one seat in Pakistan바카라�s directly elected lower house. The PPP and PML(N) had Pak­istan바카라�s regional hinterlands all sewn up, with deep bases in Sindh and Punjab. In a way, it바카라�s the urban middle class that grew rapidly during Gen Pervez Musharraf바카라�s regime that flocked to Imran after the military dictatorship ended, finally allowing the PTI to appear as a mainstream party.

It was no surprise therefore that, even though the PTI did not do too well in Punjab in the 2013 election, his party ran the PML(N) close in urban centres like Lahore and Rawalpi­ndi. It emerged as the second most popular party in Karachi as well. Over the next five years, despite criticism that Imran wasn바카라�t focusing on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), the province his party ruled, the former cricketer challenged the Sharif-led PML(N) so aggressively that he has managed to emerge as the main contender in the latter바카라�s home province of Punjab.

With the PML(N) beset with grave legal and political problems, it바카라�s no surprise that the PTI thinks it will finally make it. Asad Umer, a senior party leader, feels the PTI will get a solid chunk of seats in the National Assembly. As it is, the PTI, according to most surveys and observers, is set to ret­urn as the single largest party from KPK, which has never voted for one party twice in a row.

A victory in Punjab is not a given, like in KPK, but Imran seems to be sitting pretty. In south Punjab바카라�the less developed part of the province where parties tend to be relatively weak and an election victory hinges on influential individuals known as 바카라�electables바카라� (often part of the landed elite)바카라�the PTI is in a strong position. In the past couple of months, many electables have defected from the PML(N) to hop on to the PTI bandwa­gon바카라�as good a signal from the weathervane as you would want.

Read Also: Don't Expect Radical India Policy From Likely Pak PM Imran Khan

While Imran promises to strengthen institutions, eradicate corruption and focus on human development, in the words of Asad Umer, it바카라�s hard to say what Imran as prime minister may bring for Pakistan바카라�s neighbours.

Oddly, for a Pakistani so well-known internationally, for  cri­­cket and socialising, his foreign policy agenda remains less clearly articulated than his domestic governance plan. Partly, this is because foreign policy is rarely an issue in Pakist­ani ele­ctoral politics. Most parties barely skim the surface of foreign policy in their manifestoes; rarely are the details filled in during speeches or interviews. No wonder, an article in The Friday Times noted: 바카라�None of the three parties have come up with ambitious or innovative promises to reboot the foreign policy.바카라�

The PTI바카라�s manifesto does speak of a dialogue with India and working on a blueprint for the resolution of Kashmir. But few details are available. Critics allege the PTI바카라�s proximity to the military means the latter will continue to dominate foreign and security policy. Or at the very least, when in power, Imran will stick to the prevailing view that while Islamabad will not say no to a dialogue with India, it sees little chance of a breakthrough as long as Narendra Modi is in power.

바카라�The PTI will face more constraints than any other party bec­ause of the hawkish line they have taken all along vis-a-vis India. Hence, if there is a visible chance for it to start a structured dialogue process again, it will be hard to sell, especially because of the ongoing case of Kulbhushan Jadhav. But it바카라�s the only party to promise realistic structural changes in the ministry of foreign affairs,바카라� says Mariana Babar, a senior journalist.

All that is still hypothetical, of course. Because, though the PML(N) may be down for the moment, it바카라�s not out of the race. On July 13, Mian Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif put all rumours of a deal바카라�or of the two running away from Pakistan, as they has done in 2000바카라�to rest as they flew back from London to offer themselves for arrest. A week earlier, they had been convicted to ten and seven years바카라� imprisonment by an accountability court in Pakistan.

They returned amid a harsh crackdown on the PML(N), which had planned a big show of street power in Punjab바카라�s biggest city to welcome them. All day long, party workers and leaders dodged containers, arrests and other hurdles to reach Lahore. Though the main rally did not make it to the airport in time for the flight, journalists allege their channels were discouraged from airing visuals of the crowds in and around Lahore. Scores were arrested from the rally by the police, including top PML(N) leaders, some of them party candidates. The police have also opened criminal cases against thousands of PML(N) members for breaking 바카라�election rules바카라�. The next day, Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz바카라�s younger brother, warned that 바카라�only the PML(N) is being targeted바카라� and [being denied] a level playing field바카라�, reported Dawn. Though he now leads the party and is its prime ministerial candidate, Shahbaz is not a charismatic crowd-puller.

The perception is that Nawaz바카라�s absence from the campaign trail will be a huge loss in Punjab, traditionally the province that determines who occupies the executive바카라�s seat in Islamabad. But his dramatic arrest has also set off talks about a sympathy vote. And Sharif is playing the 바카라�victim바카라� card to some effect. Even if he hasn바카라�t changed the game conclusively, it바카라�s certainly a new factor for Imran to counter. Others have noted this. For instance, Babar Sattar, a lawyer and commentator, tweeted: 바카라�Election 2018 is about #NawazSharif.바카라�

Of the 272 national assembly seats in the lower house, 148 are from Punjab. The other three provinces share the remaining 129. Hence, it바카라�s said that the road to Islamabad passes through Punjab. This is especially axiomatic for the PML(N), essentially a Punjab-based party. It swept the province last time to dominate the lower house, with little more than a symbolic presence in the other provinces.

This time around, though, his party may pay a price for his attack on the military establishment. That onslaught, after his disqualification, has caused not a little private dismay among his party leadership. Besides his own cases, the Nat­ional Accountability Bureau has, in recent months, aggressively pursued corruption cases in Punjab which has been ruled by Shahbaz for a decade. Senior party leaders have been called in multiple times for questioning. A bureaucrat close to Shahbaz has been under arrest since February.

The PML(N) fell afoul of the establishment in 1993 and 1999 and lost power on both occasions; it바카라�s not a new experience for them. In the last week of June, the judiciary also disqualified two PML(N) candidates for contempt of court despite widespread criticism. In reaction to one disqualification, that of a former federal minister, Daniyal Aziz, a confidant of Maryam Nawaz, the latter said in London, 바카라�Why don바카라�t they disqualify the entire party in one go instead of doing it one by one?바카라� It바카라�s hard to remember the last time an election바카라�s fairness was called into question so vociferously.

The defections in south Punjab create another factor of fluidity. Six former assembly members rejected the PML(N) tickets they had been awarded at the last mom­ent, leaving the party no time to nominate new candidates. 바카라�The PML(N) has left so many seats uncontested all over Pakistan바카라�as if it바카라�s not a serious contender,바카라� says Asha바카라�ar Rehman, resident editor of Dawn in Lahore.

The party also faces a threat from new religious parties such as the Tehreek Labaik, which is reaching out to the Barelvi vote, traditionally seen to be part of the PML(N) support base. Such parties may not be able to win seats but can change the outcome in closely contested races.

In this context, if Nawaz is unable to campaign in the final weeks before the election, a victory might be tough to achieve. To provide a parallel, the PPP바카라�s Bilawal Bhutto and his father were unable to hold any rallies in Punjab in 2013, and the party was virtually wiped out in the province.

However, not everyone agrees with this assessment. For many, Sharif바카라�s defiance and his pop­­ular standing in Punjab can offset his physical absence from the campaign trail. On July 18, The News quoted journalist Nusrat Javeed as saying, 바카라�the PML(N) votebank will gel with Sharif바카라�s return, the campaign will be intense.바카라� Others say it may be hard for the PML(N) to counter this forced enfeeblement, but the beneficiary will not be PTI, but the ind­­ependent electables. They foresee a hung parliament and a weak government.

Electables are a constant in every general election; in 2008, independent candidates in Punjab garnered around 11 per cent of the vote (PPP and PML-N got short of 30 per cent each). This time, they have taken on a sinister connotation due to two factors. One, the sudden implosion of PML(N) in Balochistan, which cost it its majority in the Senate, with a relatively unknown Baloch politician now Senate chair­man.

The second factor is more intriguing: the Election Commi­ssion바카라�s decision to give the 바카라�jeep바카라� symbol to two PML(N) sta­­l­­warts who left the party on the eve of polls바카라�Nisar Ali Khan, who served as Nawaz바카라�s interior minister, and Zaeem Qadri, who had served as the Punjab government바카라�s spokesman. Dawn reported that in Punjab바카라�s 120 constituencies alone, as many as 66 independents will be contesting polls on the jeep symbol. It바카라�s hard to imagine them forming an actual party after the election, but they can play a role in a hung parliament.

The PPP, meanwhile, is a shadow of its former self; despite Benazir바카라�s son leading it, it is predicted to be limited to Sindh, home province of the Bhuttos. Having been decimated in Punjab in 2013, the last five years have gone waste: minus a charismatic leader, the party has been unable to revive itself there.

 BB바카라�s widower, former president Asif Ali Zardari, is seen to be a liability as far as the voter in Punjab is concerned. He has shown little comfort with populist politics, but is at home with what is called 바카라�jod tod ki siyasat바카라�. So instead of attempting to improve the PPP바카라�s electoral chances, he aims to play kingmaker in case of a hung parliament. That seems to be the ceiling of ambition for the party that once was the only party of the federation in Pakistan post-1971.

 So will a party born a quarter century after the 1971 war sweep the game away? Will the PML(N) trump the odds? Or will democracy have to rest on the loose sands of a coalition regime? Anything, it seems, is possible in this election. Rarely has an election been so feverishly contested, in more ways than one, and been so uncertain.

By Arifa Noor in Islamabad