India Pursues Vigorous Diplomacy To Make Pakistan Act On Terror

The brief, but intense, military face-off between India and Pakistan, with its attendant fev­erishness, seems to be over. How­­ever, to construe it as the end of PM Narendra Modi바카라�s war on terror inside Pakistan could perhaps be a mistake. Except that the theatre has now expanded to also include the diplomatic front.

Not that the other front has entirely cooled. Yes, in an interesting manifestation of a thaw, the two sides agreed to hold a mee­ting along the Attari-Wagah border in Pun­­jab on March 14 to discuss the Kar­tarpur Corridor. The proposed passa­geway will enable Sikh pilgrims from India to visit and pay homage to Guru Nanak at his final resting place at Kar­ta­r­pur gurudwara in Pakistan. It might seem to be a positive sign of de-esc­alation, but the unabated exchange of heavy shelling and firing between rival troops along the Line of Control indicate otherwise.

바카라�All options are open,바카라� sources in India say, on the eventuality of another terrorist attack from Pakistan. Indeed, political and diplomatic circles are hotly speculating about a further bout of hostility, and what form and intensity it might take. In plainspeak, if there was another terror attack on India from across the border, New Delhi바카라�s response could well be as dramatic as the February 26 airstrike on the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist facility at Balakot deep inside Pakistan.

How Pakistan reacts to such an event and if this could spark a full-fledged  armed confro­nta­tion bet­w­een the nucl­ear-armed neighbours con­tinue to be tetchy questions among regio­nal nations and those beyond volatile South Asia.

India had dubbed the Bal­akot operation as a 바카라�non-­military, pre-emptive바카라� strike to deter the JeM from launching attacks, a rea­soning that Pakistan had refused to acc­ept. Within 24 hours of the airstrike, it had flown its fighter jets across the LoC into India, targeting Ind­ian military facilities. The timely, effective joining of battle by Indian fighters notwit­hstanding, the ensuing dogfight ended in IAF fighter pilot Abhinandan Varthaman bailing out of his aircraft into Pakistani territory and being captured.

His safe return has contributed to a pause in overt hostilities, though India maintains it is in no mood to relent on the pressure on Pakistan until it disma­ntles the jehadi infrastructure on its soil.

For now, India seems to have concentrated its focus on increased diplo­ma­tic pressure바카라�something that reportedly bore down heavily on Pakistan after both the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrike. New Delhi has activated its missions in different world capitals and entrusted ambassadors to apprise host countries of the reason behind India바카라�s act­ions. Documentary evide­nce sha­red with Pakistan in the aft­ermath of the Pulw­ama attack clearly shows the vic­ious hand of the Jaish hand behind the murderous act. It has been shared with other governments.

Much of the initial drive was led by ext­ernal affairs minister Sushma Swa­raj, who briefed her Chinese and Russian counterparts, Wang Yi and Sergei Lavrov, in China바카라�s Zhejiang last week. On March 1, she notably also became the first Indian leader to address the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Her pre­sence at the OIC foreign ministers바카라� meeting as a  바카라�guest of honour바카라� was both historic and also an attempt by OIC leaders to correct a 50-year-old wrong.

In the first Islamic Conference, convened hurriedly at Morrocan capital Rabat in 1969 in the wake of an attack on the Al Aqsa mosque in Palestine by an Australian fanatic, India was invited as a country with a substantial Muslim population (60 million out of a population of 540 million in 1969). But when Pakistan president Yahya Khan objected and refused to attend the proceedings, India was forcedly kept out.

This time around too, Pakistani foreign minister Mehmood Qureshi made a similar demand of withdrawing the invitation given to Sushma Swaraj. But neither the host UAE nor other members of 57-member organisation heeded Islamabad바카라�s plea. A sulking Qureshi had to sit out while Swaraj spoke before the OIC leaders. She not only stressed on India바카라�s pluralism but also argued that 바카라�the fight against terrorism cannot be seen as a fight against any particular religion바카라�.

Significantly, the conspi­cuously warm welcome to Swaraj didn바카라�t stop the OIC from declaring its customary pro-Kashmir resolut­ion바카라�an embarrassment for New Delhi, given the strongly worded call for India to cease its 바카라�atrocities바카라�. But, equally sig­­­­­ni­­fi­­cantly, its refusal to withdraw the invitation  to India indicates a growing keenness in the Islamic world to balance its old, natural tilt towards Pakistan by  actively engaging New Delhi.

Meanwhile, growing international pressure seeking urgent action against terrorist groups based in Pakistan바카라�inc­luding by the global money-laundering watchdog FATF바카라�s vigil against terror funding바카라�seems to have had some salutary effect. Last week, it launched a drive against 44 proscribed terror outfits that had hitherto been operating freely. On March 5, it also took both Masood Azhar바카라�s brother, Mufti Abdul Rauf, and son Hamad Azhar into 바카라�preventive custody바카라�. But there is nothing yet to suggest that these two JeM leaders, who had been named in the Indian dossier given to Pakistan, were to be tried for any crime. In the ongoing drive, Pakistani officials also took into custody 42 leaders of other proscribed groups. It also put former Lashkar-e-Toiba chief Hafiz Saeed바카라�s Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Falah-­e-Insaniyat Fou­n­d­ation (FIF) on the list of banned terror outfits.

But the fact is, neither Masood Azhar, reported to be seriously ill, nor Hafiz Saeed were arrested, rai­sing questions in India about the genuineness of Pakistan바카라�s new, ostensible drive against terrorists. New Delhi actually has enough reason to be disappointed with Paki­stan. Sev­eral terrorists flourishing in Pakistan had earlier been identified, with supporting documents, of being involved in terror acts in India. Though Pakistan, in order to mollify Indian outrage after a fresh terror act, takes some highly publicised action against them in the initial stages, soon they are released using the old바카라�and vague바카라�excuse of 바카라�insufficient proof바카라�. They are then free to roam the country, spew venom against India, recruit jehadis and plot their next terrorist operation.

However, despite such a norm being set, a lot of hype seems to be gathering around the resolution initiated by the P-3바카라�France, the US and UK바카라�at the UN Security Council to declare Masood Azhar a 바카라�global terrorist바카라�. On March 13, it will be known whether the resolution바카라�unsuccessful four times in the last 10 years바카라�could get enough support. The key country: China, whose earlier 바카라�technical바카라� objections had stalled the move each time.

Indian officials, along with key countr­ies like Russia and the US, have been trying to convince Beijing to stand with others to see its smooth passage. If it does pass at the UNSC, Azhar would face a travel ban, an arms embargo and a freezing of all his assets. Crucially, it would seek an end to all financial aid to him too. If implemented in earnest, it will hurt him grievously. Will Pakistan do so?

바카라�I don바카라�t see how things will be different this time,바카라� says former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. 바카라�At best, it can yet again put China바카라�s resolve to fight terrorists to test,바카라� he adds. That would be interesting to watch, given China바카라�s ambiguous silence till now. Ack­now­ledging that the successful passage of the resolution could be a key diplomatic victory for India, Sibal says, 바카라�It may then raise serious question about the durability of Sino-Pakistan rel­ations. It may also tell Islamabad that the Chinese umbrella has begun to leak.바카라�

Will all this strong-arm blitz fundamentally alter India-Pakistan ties, where a wary, responsible Pakistan treads carefu­lly, mindful of India바카라�s mus­cular strategic shift after Balakot? Opt­imism notwithstanding, that looks to be a very tall ask.

***

• Pakistan has arrested two terror accomplices of Masood Azhar, and 42 others from different proscribed groups

• On March 13, the P-3-initiated resolution to declare Masood a 바카라�global terrorist바카라� will be put to vote at the UN