Opinion | New Delhi Failed To Anticipate China바카라�s Reaction To The Change Of Indian Map

One cannot but be surprised at our political, historical and strategic naivety in underestimating the likely Chinese reaction in what they feel are siege situations against them. Any number of signals had come to reveal their anger against India well before the present border stand-off which exp­loded on the night of June 15. Yet we ignored all that, assessing that these were due to their internal power struggle or that they wanted to coerce us during the proposed WHO inquiry on the origins of coronavirus.

Instead, we were fed with visuals of certain incidents which we thought were due to our over-arching global influence, but which in the Chinese mind were provocations. The first incident was on May 24, when two prominent BJP parliamentarians attended the 바카라�virtual swearing in ceremony바카라� on May 24, along with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, of the second term of Taiwan바카라�s President Tsai Ing-wen. China lodged a formal protest, describing their attendance as efforts to undermine its national integrity.

ALSO READ: After Galwan Face-off, Why Future Looks Tense For Sparring Neighbours India And China

The second was on June 2, when President Donald Trump invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the G-7 Summit when the China border 바카라�stand-off바카라� was also discussed. Soon thereafter, Russia suggested that without China바카라�s presence G-7 would be meaningless. China also ridiculed Trump바카라�s attempts 바카라�to draw a small circle바카라� against Beijing.

The third was PM Modi바카라�s 바카라�virtual summit바카라� with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on June 4 to conclude a 바카라�comprehensive strategic partnership바카라�. Scott Morrison is a red rag for China due to his alignment with Trump on the coronavirus origins. He does not know how to overcome his own problem about Australian actor Karm Gilespie, who is facing a death sentence in China on drug charges.

ALSO READ: Believe It Or Not, China Has Been Grabbing Land For Forty Years, Say Ladakh Residents

There were many such earlier incidents, which we should have taken note of to prep are adequate border vigilance. We failed to do that. In one of my recent columns on the border stand-off I had referred to a 1970 top secret CIA case study of the Chinese reaction to the then mighty Soviet Union on similar border problems. The study had revealed the Chinese habit of exacerbating border tensions when bilateral relations worsen: 바카라�Mao바카라�s land claim was indeed part of the bitter political feud, and Mao바카라�s main goal was to extract a political surrender, rather than small territorial concessions, as the price for a final settlement바카라�.

The paper also highlighted China바카라�s double standards. The concept of 바카라�Line of Actual Control바카라�, which they had ins­isted on India, was not demanded from the Soviets. 바카라�In dealing with the Soviets the Chinese have maintained a convenient silence on the ploy they used against the Indians바카라�. It also assessed that these border claims were moves to provide Mao a political victory. Their tactics of 바카라�pushing and shoving바카라� on the Ussuri and Amur river basin were intended to humiliate the Soviet Union. Finally, this resulted in the 1969 skirmish and the brutal deaths of 59 Soviet soldiers, which unnerved the USSR. The paper also said that Mao was prepared to 바카라�accept more punishment for his forces than they thought he would바카라� and he was 바카라�prepared to live with a tense border situation indefinitely바카라�.

ALSO READ: Opinion | That China Has Claimed Galwan As Its Territory Indicates Strategic Intent, Planning

Yet China would wait patiently for solving border problems when bilateral relations improve. In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev made a conciliatory speech at Vladivostok which was received well by Deng Xiaoping, who set aside 바카라�intractable issues바카라� to be solved by 바카라�future generations바카라�. The final settlement signed on June 2, 2005 was beneficial to China, as Russia parted with the upstream end of Bear Island to China, thereby restoring Fuyuan Channel to it as its inland waterway.

Chinese assertiveness and arrogance increased with simultaneous border agreements with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which had inherited some of the border issues after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. All of them were enticed with liberal financial aid, although in the long run they are the losers by accepting the leasing of large tracts of land to Chinese farmers who are building enclaves within these countries. Already, local agitations have erupted.

ALSO READ: China's PLA Capable Of Fighting Transformational, Algorithm War; India's Old Resolution Mechanisms Won바카라�t Work

In 1971 and 1972 China considered India as Soviet Union바카라�s surrogate as the transcripts of Zhou-Enlai-Kissinger and Zhou-Enlai-Nixon talks would indicate. Zhou blamed Nehru for claiming 바카라�their바카라� Aksai-Chin plateau from 1956 onwards under Nikita Khrushchev바카라�s instigation. In 1972, Zhou inc­luded Indira Gandhi among China바카라�s adversaries for threatening Pakistan. China바카라�s opinion about India improved after Rajiv Gandhi바카라�s epoch making visit in 1988, although it came after the 1987 Sumdorong Chu valley stand-off.

For about 10 years things were normal till May 13, 1998, when New York Times published the leaked letter of Prime Minister Vajpayee to President Bill Clinton, blaming China for our nuclear tests during the same year. That rekindled China바카라�s suspicion that we were gravitating towards the US to encircle them. The same fears were confirmed since 2014, when our strategic relations with America were raised to a higher level by Prime Minister Modi. A number of incidents had confirmed their fears.

ALSO READ: Opinion | Modi Government's J-K Gambit Has Had Pakistan, China And Nepal Riled

On June 3, 2019, Open Democracy, a UK based political website published a piece, titled India and America collude to disrupt China-Pakistan Economic Corridor . It contained sensational allegations that the US was out to unsettle Pakistan바카라�s Balochistan, the heart of CPEC, with Indian help. It alleged that RAW via its proxies had 바카라�propagated바카라� numerous murders of Chinese engineers in Balochistan, and that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), supported by India, had attacked the Chinese consulate in Karachi in November 2018.

On February 6, 2020 the Lok Sabha was informed that the government had conveyed its concerns to the Chinese on the 바카라�China-Pakistan Economic Corridor바카라� (CPEC), which passed through those parts of the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh that are under illegal occupation of Pakistan. It had also asked them to cease such activities.

ALSO READ: Why Blanket Ban Of Chinese Products Not Feasible In India

On November 2, 2019, New Delhi released new maps of India showing the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh consequent to the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019. The new map did not take into consideration the disputed Aksai Chin and showed it as part of Ladakh, leading to a protest by China바카라�s foreign Ministry spokesman: 바카라�The Indian Government officially announced the establishment of so- called Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh Union territories which included some of China바카라�s territory into its administrative jurisdiction바카라�. They claimed that this violated border accords signed by India.

That this new map was strongly objected to at higher levels in the Chinese leadership was not known publicly in India. This was known only on June 12 this year when a national daily released a report by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), linking the present LAC tension to the new map. According to the daily, this report, for the first time, criticised the new map which 바카라�posed a challenge to the sovereignty of Pakistan and China바카라�. The report was distributed by the Chinese embassy in Islamabad. It said that the new map 바카라�forced China into the Kashmir dispute, stimulated China and Pakistan to take counter actions on the Kashmir issue and dramatically increased the difficulty in resolving the border issue between China and India바카라�.

ALSO READ: Indian Cricket And Its Many Chinese Connections -- Why BCCI Is On A Difficult Pitch

Also, the report revealed that the Chinese foreign minister had voiced 바카라�his strong opposition바카라� to our external affairs minister S. Jaishankar during his visit last year following the abrogation of Article 370. 바카라�The week before the August visit, Union home minister Amit Shah had spoken in Parliament about taking back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Aksai Chin. The most important remark to be noted in the CICIR report is that India바카라�s 바카라�double confidence바카라� behind the change of maps is due to its 2019 election victory and that the United States and some other Western countries 바카라�puffed India up from an ideological point of view바카라� to hedge 바카라�against China바카라�,바카라� the article in the daily noted.

Foreign minister Jaishankar, with his vast experience of Chinese leadership, should have anticipated Chinese reaction on the ground at a time of their choosing. Did he catalyse our better border vigilance?

ALSO READ: Pangong Tso

Immediately after the incident on June 16, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi seized the early propaganda advantage by accusing India of 바카라�violating the consensus of the two sides by illegally crossing the border twice and carrying out provocative attacks on Chinese soldiers, resulting in serious physical clashes바카라�.

Compared to that, India바카라�s reaction, especially by our external affairs ministry, was feeble, confused and delayed. We were not even able to issue a statement to the distraught public giving details. Even the casualty figures could not be confirmed till 10 pm on the 16th. Even now this is tentative. There was not even unanimity on whether the incident was within the buffer zone or in India바카라�s territory. Why then did our spokespersons repeat claims that the Chinese did not occupy our territory?

ALSO READ: Present In Past Tense

Thus, China is using the same language it used against India while justifying its 1962 incursions into India. In 1972, Zhou en Lai had accused Nehru of being a surrogate of Nikita Khrushchev during his talks with President Richard Nixon in Beijing. The same charge is now levelled against Narendra Modi. The 1962 attack was to insult Nehru, while the 2020 attack is to discredit Narendra Modi.

(Views expressed are personal)

The writer is a former special secretary, Cabinet Secretariat.