Coalition Tightrope: Why INDIA Alliance Must Overcome Its Own Contradictions

On October 23, 1990, a local journalist, Gonu Jha, rang the circuit house in Samastipur at around two in the morning, checking on L K Advani. He found out that the BJP leader was asleep and that his supporters had left. The second information was, of course, all that mattered바카라�the very reason Gonu had made the call. Because he was neither a journalist nor Gonu; he was Lalu Prasad Yadav, then the chief minister of Bihar, determined to stop Advani바카라�s Rath Yatra in a state devastated by recent communal riots. The phone call assured the cops that they wouldn바카라�t have to tear through an army of protesters for their climactic move; the next morning, they arrested Advani.

Nothing about this incident seemed to indicate that the two men were, in fact, political allies. The coalition government at the centre, led by the nascent National Front, had enlisted support from several parties, including the Janata Dal (Yadav) and the BJP (Advani), to edge out the hegemonic Congress. The tactic worked, making V P Singh the prime minister, but not for long: after Advani바카라�s arrest, the BJP pulled out and the government fell.

Advani versus Yadav could be easily termed as Mandir versus Mandal. Singh바카라�s government, wanting to implement the Mandal Commission, had sparked virulent protests across the country. Not long after, Advani launched his Rath Yatra, amplifying his reach among the aggrieved caste Hindus. Yadav, who had risen to power relying on the solidarity between the Muslims and the marginalised castes, had more than one reason to oppose Advani. This ideological divide, notes Paranjoy Guha Thakurta in his book A Time of Coalitions, 바카라�collapsed the V P Singh government바카라�.

A coalition government can often resemble a tightrope walk바카라�one misstep can swallow it whole. Just take a look at the mid-90s: Atal Bihari Vajpayee바카라�s alliance couldn바카라�t complete a month; the United Front바카라�s next two governments, helmed by H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral, couldn바카라�t finish a year. In the late 1970s, the country바카라�s first successful coalition barely lasted two years. Since 1998, however, two alliances바카라�led by the BJP바카라�s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress바카라� United Progressive Alliance (UPA)바카라�have completed three full terms before the BJP sailed to power with a full majority in 2014, continuing its ascent in the next nine years.

To combat that juggernaut, 26 political parties formed a bloc in July 2023 called INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Its first obstacle had a Shakespearian essence: what바카라�s in a name? Bihar바카라�s Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, disagreed with 바카라�INDIA바카라�, as it sounded similar to 바카라�NDA바카라�. Sharad Pawar had a different 바카라�D바카라� in his mind when he announced the alliance바카라�s name on Twitter, calling it 바카라�Democratic바카라� instead of 바카라�Developmental바카라�. Rahul Gandhi said this fight was not 바카라�between the two political forces바카라� but for 바카라�the idea of India바카라�, implying that it was incomplete without 바카라�Inclusive바카라�. 바카라�INDIA represents the diversity of the country,바카라� says political scientist Uday Chandra of Georgetown University, Qatar. 바카라�It cannot be captured by imposing an artificial unity, through either Nehruvian socialism or Moditva.바카라� Besides 바카라�reimagining the Union in a pluralistic way바카라�, he adds, it also signals that the ideas of 바카라�vikas are many in our society바카라�.

Any coalition, though, must be wary of the contradictions, and INDIA바카라�whose members바카라� ideologies swing from ultra-Left to Left to Centre to Centre-Right바카라�has already run into a few. Nitish Kumar publicly disagreed on the decision to boycott 14 TV anchors; Congress leader Kamal Nath clashed with M K Stalin on Sanatan Dharma; and, the seat-sharing negotiations threatening to bubble (so much so that there바카라�s little agreement on its timing바카라�whether it should happen before or after the assembly elections in five states). 바카라�It is not realistic to expect that all the parties in the alliance will agree on most issues,바카라� says Ayan Guha, a political science professor at Jamia Hamdard. 바카라�But the question of credibility will arise if there is an absence of consensus on core issues.바카라� Besides being anti-BJP, he notes, the alliance must 바카라�clearly communicate바카라� the 바카라�core issues바카라� that shape its 바카라�common perspective바카라�.

Such unity may seem tough given one INDIA party dukes it out against the other in more than one state: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) versus the Congress in Punjab or the Congress versus the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. INDIA바카라�s success, feels Guha, hinges on the 바카라�alignment between its electoral arithmetic and the grand narrative바카라�. But the former, tied to political feuds, can be a challenge, especially as the regional outfits, such as 바카라�AAP and TMC, have fought hard to carve out a political space바카라� in their respective states. That바카라�s where a larger narrative justifying a 바카라�national coalition바카라� could be crucial, which could outsize the 바카라�arithmetical fractures바카라�.

바카라�A desperate BJP바카라� on the other hand, says Chandra, has reverted to its 바카라�original agenda of fomenting communal riots바카라� to 바카라�harvest votes바카라�, abandoning 바카라�all talks of vikas바카라�. A strategy that may impress only 바카라�ideological바카라�, not 바카라�swing바카라�, voters. 바카라�Each opposition party,바카라� he adds, 바카라�should fight the BJP on its own turf.바카라� The party바카라�s recent defeat in Karnataka, annulling its presence in south India, does lend credence to such a possibility. The emaciated Congress, clarifies Chandra, should focus on states in 바카라�northern and central India바카라�such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh바카라�바카라�where it has enjoyed a 바카라�strong regional presence바카라�, and competes for just 바카라�specific seats바카라� in Punjab, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala. 바카라�The Congress shouldn바카라�t feel there바카라�s a fight to the finish with its own allies,바카라� he says. 바카라�The INDIA secretariat can work out the logistics state by state.바카라�

Two states with hefty Lok Sabha representations, however, don바카라�t feature in the INDIA alliance: Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. In September 2022, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi바카라�s (BRS바카라�s) K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) met Nitish Kumar in Patna, who had nurtured his own ambition for an anti-BJP alliance, the 바카라�Main Front바카라�. When a reporter asked KCR if he바카라�d back Kumar as the prime ministerial candidate, he stuck to a non-committal response, but Kumar got up, wanting to boycott the press conference. An embarrassing (and hilarious) exchange ensued, where Kumar kept saying 바카라�arre chaliye바카라� (10 times) and KCR 바카라�arre baithiye바카라� (19 times). But more than the BRS바카라� obvious refusal to join INDIA바카라�it has a direct competitor in Congress in Telangana바카라�the larger politics of these two states hint at the possible complexities of coalitions in the future. Because unlike the chief minister of other south Indian states, who are OBCs, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana leaders (and their rivals) belong to the dominant Reddy, Kamma and Velama castes. So, as opposed to the INDIA alliance, they haven바카라�t pushed for a caste census. These parties have also flip-flopped on other contentious issues, such as demonetisation and farm bills, and have remained indifferent to the Hindutva onslaught, making Andhra Pradesh and Telangana remarkable aberrations in south India. There바카라�s a lot more at stake than politics or ideology: KCR바카라�s daughter, Kavitha, has been accused in the Delhi liquor scam; Amit Shah recently called the Andhra Pradesh government 바카라�ridden with corruption바카라�.

바카라�I think the Andhra-Telangana parties should be invited, much as the Bahujan Samaj Party is being courted by the Congress,바카라� says Chandra, while noting the current limitation, such as the imminent Telangana elections. 바카라�They can compete in the state [in the Lok Sabha]바카라�바카라�where the BJP is still not an overwhelming force바카라�바카라�in the same way as Congress-CPM in Kerala and Congress-TMC in West Bengal.바카라� In constituencies with a significant BJP presence, he exp­lains, INDIA could work out a seat-sharing arrangement. 바카라�An intelligent cocktail of arithmetic and political narrative is the way forward for the INDIA alliance against the electoral juggernaut of the BJP,바카라� says Guha. 바카라�The task is enormously difficult, but not impossible.바카라�

(This appeared in the print as 'Coalition Tightrope')