Fracture Un-Nursed

For the sheer twists and turns it can script, Tamil Nadu politics can beat even the trickiest ghat road. Such has been the dramatics after the death of AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalitha in early December last year that the state saw two chief ministers changing, a CM-­elect being sent to jail and a byelection cancelled after  two factions of the ruling party fought for an election symbol that had got frozen.

So, after many false starts and angry words, the August 21 merger of the two AIADMK factions had the appearance of the final act of restoring peace in the embattled party of Amma. Till one more twist kicked in, as 19 MLAs owing allegiance to T.T.V. Dhinakaran, the party바카라�s 바카라�deposed바카라� deputy general secretary, with-drew support to chief minister Edappadi K. Palanisami (EPS), reducing his government to a tottering minority.

바카라�Poor EPS could not even celebrate the merger. Neither could OPS (erstwhile rival O. Panneerselvam), his comeback to the cabinet,바카라� observes Ramu Mani­vannan, professor of politics in the University of Madras. 바카라�Instead, they were plotting to keep their flock of MLAs safe from a marauding Dhinakaran who was hell-bent on unseating the two proxies (EPS and OPS). The merger, rather than consolidate EPS바카라�s position, has badly undermined him.바카라�

As political uncertainty gripped the state again, Tamil Nadu바카라�s acting governor Vidyasagar Rao found himself playing the referee once more. Earlier, in February, he was accused of favouring the OPS camp, first by delaying V.K. Sasikala바카라�s swearing-in바카라�till the Supreme Court verdict arrived and sent the one-time Amma aide packing to the Bangalore jail in a disproportionate assets case. The Raj Bhavan again sat on the EPS claim to form a government바카라�it was only when OPS could not shore up his numbers beyond 12 MLAs that the governor chose to invite EPS.

Thus, on August 21, Rao flew in to Chennai in a jiffy to swear in OPS and one more minister from his faction바카라�and even got the CM and his deputy to shake hands. But the euphoria was short-lived. The very next day, the governor was confronted by 19 MLAs of the Dhinakaran camp who sought the removal of EPS as the CM. As Rao grappled with a constitutional crisis and EPS was exploring ways to save his government, Dhinakaran had his 19 MLAs safely tucked away in a holiday resort in Puducherry.

바카라�If only the merger had happened we would not have minded OPS getting back into the ministry,바카라� says legislator Thanga Thamilselvan, a staunch lieutenant of Dhinakaran. 바카라�But it really got our goat when they announced that Sasikala would be removed as general secretary. That is when we decided to pull the rug. Even now we would want the government to continue, but under a new CM.바카라�

The Dhinakaran group has already sounded out assembly Speaker P. Dhanapal as a possible replacement for EPS. Their calculation: since the AIADMK has 31 Dalit MLAs, they would rally behind Dhanapal, who belongs to the Arunthdhiyar sub-sect among Dalits, one of the most backward communities in the state. That would also give second thoughts to the DMK about toppling a government headed by a Dalit. 바카라�The Sasikala family has been betrayed by a Thevar (OPS) and now a Gounder (EPS)바카라�the two backing communities of the AIADMK, notes political commentator Ravindran Durasamy. 바카라�So they are placing their bets on a Dalit, hoping he would be more subservient. Ultimately, the family wants to be in control of the 1972-founded party, which has been their oxygen for survival and expansion of their business interests.바카라�

Dhinakaran has also grown in confide­nce after his successful August 14 rally at Melur. His ability to network with party functionaries has seen him reach out to those sections that felt left out under the EPS dispensation. No wonder, he warned that 바카라�sleeper cells바카라� in the EPS camp would be activated to destabilise the government if the Sasikala family continued to be targeted. State intelligence has also cautioned EPS that at least ten ministers are ready to switch sides.

According to sources, Dhinakaran is not even averse to taking the help of the DMK and Congress (with 98 MLAs) to topple the EPS government and then have the AIADMK legislators regroup under his leadership. He wants to pre-empt both EPS and OPS before they convene the party general council to unseat Sasikala and approach the Election Commission to retrieve the AIADMK바카라�s frozen Two Leaves symbol.

Ultimately everything hinges on the governor바카라�s decision. According to sour­ces close to Raj Bhavan, Rao expects the leadership change of the AIADMK바카라�s legislature party to happen at the party forum and not through the governor바카라�s office. This would mean that Dhinakar­an바카라�s MLAs will have to write to the party바카라�s whip (with the EPS group), seeking a meeting of the legislature party.

If this attempt fails, they could app­roach the Supreme Court to direct the governor to convene the assembly for a floor test. 바카라�Six months have passed since EPS took a floor test; so one more floor test is technically feasible now,바카라� points out a former advocate general. 바카라�Also, the situation has changed after some MLAs withdrew support to EPS. So the governor has to take cognisance of these circumstances to convene the assembly at the earliest for the floor test.바카라�

Dhinakaran바카라�s googly has flummoxed the BJP, which blessed the merger and even played an active role in it. The party was hoping that the EPS government would stumble its way till 2019 so that Tamil Nadu can have simultaneous elections for the assembly and the Lok Sabha. That would give time for superstar Rajinikanth to float his party and build up momentum. But the present crisis could lead to an early election by 2018, which would be advantageous only for the DMK and Congress.

바카라�It appears we have to rework our calculations if the EPS government does not last till 2019,바카라� shrugs a state BJP leader. 바카라�One option would be a spell of President바카라�s rule while keeping the asse­mbly in suspended animation so that the AIADMK factions can arrive at some kind of accord. We backed the merger of the two factions hoping that it would bring greater stability to the state. But Dhinakaran wants to protect his family바카라�s turf which has led to the present crisis.바카라�

The Opposition DMK is least convinced that the BJP (ruling at the Centre) is interested in the state바카라�s welfare. 바카라�Why have they not appointed a full-fledged governor in over a year? It wants a weak government functioning under a cloud of uncertainty, so that Delhi can conti­nue to call the shots,바카라� says DMK spokesperson K. S. Radhakrishnan. 바카라�Look how the state government was tricked into accepting NEET for medical admissions. The Centre promised to back a state ordinance giving exemption from NEET for a year, but later told the Supreme Court that it was against the ordinance.바카라�

The coming weeks will see a battle between the survival skills of EPS and the staying power of OPS, pitched against the manipulative moves of the Sasikala family, especially Dhinakaran. More pol­itical churn can only leave Tamil Nadu with a bad tummy.

By G.C. Shekhar in Chennai