Frenemies In Need

Fresh from conquering the bonsai red fortress of Tripura and bringing down Lenin바카라�s statue, nothing, it seems, can dampen the spirits of a euphoric BJP. Not even the shocker from BSP chief Mayaw­ati, who decided to support the Samaj­wadi Party (SP), a bitter rival for over two decades, in the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls in UP. The implications go beyond those two seats, of course. The move seems to be a sort of testing the waters, for a new mahagathba­ndhan, which, if it happens, may  upset the saffron party바카라�s 2019 calculations for 2019.

Does the BJP view the prospect of a combined SP-BSP as a threat? Not in its current mood, and not for the half-formed shape the threat is in now. 바카라�It바카라�s not even a long-term relationship. At best, it바카라�s an opportunistic flirtation that will fizzle out soon,바카라� says a senior BJP leader. 바카라�In a political alliance, there are two things at work: electoral arithmetic and chemistry. In the case of SP-BSP, neither works.바카라� On chemistry, he has a point바카라�relations between the leaders (and cadres) have long been marked by antagonism, and that only reflects the natural tension between the social blocs they represent. But electoral arithmetic? Even if all numbers don바카라�t get added?

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath doesn바카라�t appear too flustered. He calls it an 바카라�unnatural relation바카라�, the coming together of a snake and mongoose during a flood. But bluster apart, Yogi is not taking any chances and is in aggressive campaign mode, addressing public rallies in both constituencies. He personally has a lot at stake. Gorakhpur is home turf, and the bypolls will also be a vote on his one year as chief minister. It바카라�s also a seat Yogi has represented for 20 years in the Lok Sabha. Before him, his guru Mahant Avaidyanath was MP from the seat for a decade. The association is half a century old.

After the 1967 polls, Avaidyanath바카라�s guru Mahant Digvijaynath too had represented it as an Independent candidate. Cumulatively, thus, except for an 18-year period from 1971 to 1989, Gorakhpur has had the chief priest of Gorakhnath Math as its MP for 34 years바카라�and uninterruptedly for three decades now. This is the first time the BJP has fielded a Math outsider from the seat: Amit Shah has zeroed in on Upendra Shukla, an influential Brahmin leader from the area.

바카라�It바카라�s a prestige issue for Yogi,바카라� explains a state BJP leader. 바카라�He even has to overlook the fact that Shukla was put up aga­­inst his will. He had wanted a Math insider to be nomina­ted as he believes an outsider will dilute the political influ­ence of Gorakhnath temple. But adhyakshji (Shah) prevailed. Yogi has to campaign for Shukla who­leheartedly for his own and the party바카라�s reputation. It might also be a good idea to reach out to the Brahmins, the largest savarna group in Gorakhpur and, at 13 per cent of the population, also in the state.바카라�

As compared to the last-minute, ad-hoc attempt by the BSP and the SP to aggregate their votes바카라�an idea whose viability is not self-evident바카라�the BJP has gone about working at its social combinations with near-scientific precision. It was the Bihar defeat of 2015 that spurred the BJP to relook at the caste combinations it needed to strengthen. 바카라�The social combination we worked out in Bihar in the face of JDU-RJD-Congress mahagathbandhan went somewhat haywire,바카라� explains a BJP general secretary. 바카라�Laloo Prasad Yadav gloated that Kamandal lost to Mandal. But there were a number of factors working there.바카라� The BJP-led NDA had given 23 tickets to Yadavs and 10 to Muslims in Bihar. Of them, only six Yadavs won and none from the min­ority community. 바카라�For the UP assembly elections, we corrected our social messaging, focusing on the non-Yadav OBCs that comprise about 25 per cent voters. We also managed to expand our base among non-Jatav Dalits, breaking away half of Mayawati바카라�s committed votebank,바카라� the general secretary explains. The BJP government at the Centre also moved a Bill to grant constitutional status to the OBC Commission.

바카라�The BJP is on solid ground and that바카라�s why we are not really worried about the coming together of the BSP and the SP,바카라� says BJP spokesperson Bizay Sonkar Shastri, a Dalit leader from UP. 바카라�Only hunger for power brings them together. It바카라�s plain opportunism. They have nothing in common apart from promoting divisions along caste, creed and religious lines바카라�the kind of politics the people of UP have rejected. That바카라�s why they chose the BJP by a three-fourth majority.바카라�

Shastri rationalises alliances forged by the BJP, saying coalitions are sought only for the betterment of people and development. 바카라�The BJP has had to expend much energy to bring the focus of politics바카라�both central and of states바카라�to development, away from caste. It has taken stupendous efforts by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah,바카라� he adds.

Another UP leader sounds a note of caution. He says Gorakhpur may not be a problem, but Phulpur could prove tricky as it바카라�s traditionally not a BJP stronghold. Keshav Maurya, who had to vacate the seat after he became deputy CM, had won it for the first time for the BJP in 2014 with a record margin바카라�바카라�greater than that of Pandit Nehru (who represented the constituency till 1964)바카라�바카라�as he loves to say.

For the bypolls, both the BJP and the SP have fielded Patel candidates. The BJP바카라�s big campaigners바카라�from A-listers Amit Shah, Yogi and Rajnath Singh to party in-charge Om Mathur, state party chief Mahendra Nath Pandey and general secretary (organisation) Sunil Bansal바카라�have all hit the ground. Maurya is making a personal appeal to voters to ensure victory for party candidate Kaushalendra Singh Patel. Maurya바카라�s catchline is, well, catchy: 바카라�Sab Jaaiye Bhool, Yaad Rakhiye Sirf Kamal ka Phool (Forget all else, remember only the lotus).바카라�

What helps the BJP바카라�and slightly muddies the pitch for SP candidate Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel바카라�is the sudden arrival in the fray of strongman Ateeq Ahmad, SP MP from the seat in 2004-09, as an Independent candidate. The BJP hopes he will split the Muslim votes the SP and the Congress are eyeing. The Congress바카라�s Manish Mishra may, in turn, be a rival claimant to the BJP바카라�s Brahmin votes.

Though Mayawati has urged her supporters to vote for the candidate most capable of defeating the BJP, leaders think not much vote transfer will take place. Prof Alok Rai of Ban­aras Hindu University (BHU) believes only a partial accrual of Dalit votes to the SP is possible, not a wholesale transfer. So it바카라�s not a question of simple addition of voteshares.

바카라�On paper, the BSP-SP entente seems formidable, comm­anding a substantial votebank of Dalits, Yadavs and Musl­ims,바카라� says Rai. 바카라�Extrapolation of votes, by the sections both the parties represent, won바카라�t lead to an arithmetical conclusion. There바카라�s too much conflict between voters and workers of the two parties on the ground. Too many forces are at play below the surface of social combinations and permutations. It바카라�s simplistic to believe the complete BSP voteshare will get added to that of the SP to help it exceed that of the BJP.바카라�

Also, the academician points out, so far it바카라�s not really a true alliance between the two and, if they actually do give it a formal shape with proper seat-sharing, it may be a game-changer before 2019. It is these bypoll results that will decide for the BSP and the SP if there바카라�s any political mileage to be derived from coming together.