Hope바카라�s Yoke

Each new event or initiative in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) opens floodgates of sentimental commentary dominated by desires and exp­ectations, or by ideological proclivities, rather than any direct confrontation with reality. Much of the commentary on the Centre바카라�s latest 바카라�initiative바카라�바카라�appointing Dineshwar Sharma as its representative to 바카라�initiate and carry forward a dialogue바카라� in J&K바카라�falls into this these categories.

The most counter-productive trend in the current discourse on the 바카라�Kashmir problem바카라� is the search for magical solutions 바카라�one 바카라�formula바카라� that will 바카라�solve바카라� the 바카라�problem바카라�. This is wrong at every level. There is no 바카라�Kashmir problem바카라�바카라�there is a complex of problems, each of which requires different, often divergent, initiatives. There is the problem of terrorism, of separatist mobilisation and violence, of subversion, of communal radicalisation, of polarising politics, and of course, the proxy war waged by Pakistan; there are problems of governance and of development, of demography and of constitutional status. No one initiative can 바카라�resolve바카라� all these at a stroke.

Much of the critique of Sharma바카라�s appointment is based on such flawed expectations. Commentators have either rejected the move as an admission that the Centre바카라�s 바카라�muscular바카라� policies have failed, or have imposed an impossible mission on Sharma바카라�to bring the Hurriyat leadership to the negotiating table, to add­ress the people바카라�s  바카라�unfulfilled aspirations바카라�, and to resolve Pakistan바카라�s disruptive role.

None of this is intended or can be exp­ected from this limited initiative. The issue is not up for a negotiated settlement바카라�at least, not till Pakistan and its proxies give up the idea of using violence to secure their ends, which they will not do till they realise that violence cannot serve their ends; a realisation that can only be imposed by inf­licting unbearable losses on them.

For those who believe 바카라�no progress바카라� is being made, it is useful to review the trends over the past 28 years. J&K experienced 17 years of high intensity conflict (over 1,000 fatalities a year) between 1990 and 2006 (all data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal), peaking at 4,507  in 2001. From this crest the trajectory remained consistently downwards till 2012, when fatalities fell to 117, but violence has been increasing since, significantly due to escalation by Pakistan, resulting in 181 fatalities in 2013, and going up to 267 in 2016 and 298 in 2017 (till October 29). But even at this level, present fatalities are a small fraction of the toll through the 바카라�90s and early 2000s.

Most recent fatalities (61 per cent) have been inf­licted on the terrorists, and among these are top field commanders of all active groups. Equally imp­ortant, while the entire Jammu and Kashmir divisions (excluding the Ladakh region) were highly affected by terrorism through the peak years, the distribution of present violence is extremely limited: 14 of J&K바카라�s 22 districts account for all the fatalities in 2017; at the tehsil level, just 32 of 82 tehsils recorded fatalities; crucially, the worst five tehsils accounted for 48 per cent of all fatalities.

This constitutes major gains on the part of the state, and the assessments of a worsening situation are unfounded. Perfect peace is eminently desirable, but to believe that a state can abruptly return to such a condition after nearly 30 years of conflict, and with mischief orchestrated by a hostile neighbour, is unrealistic. Indeed, compared to other theatres of enduring terrorism across the world, where entire regions are devastated and the lives of millions red­uced to anarchy and terror, the relative stability of J&K is an extraordinary accomplishment on the part of the Indian state.

A permanent resolution of the 바카라�Kashmir problem바카라� can only result from a sustained strategy on the part of both Centre and state. No such strategy has been pursued for any effective length of time. Policies have been conflicting and contradictory, polarising communities and raising issues that inflame public sentiments, and then reacting with panic when the result is an escalation of violence.

Sharma바카라�s long-term goal is to lay the groundwork for a broader dialogue, but that must wait바카라�unless we are willing to accept a replay of September 2016, when separatists contemptuously dismissed a delegation of MPs. Operational successes against the terrorists, the containment of the stone-pelting mob­­ilisation, and action against separatist finance have created pressures within J&K; Sharma바카라�s imm­ediate task is to provide an avenue of escape to those who seek to exit the cycles of violence.

(The writer is executive director,  Institute for Conflict Management)