In Maharashtra Elections, It Is Regional Vs National

This story was published as part of Outlook's 11 November, 2024 magazine issue titled 'Whitewash'. To read more stories from the issue, click here

With elections around the corner, Maharashtra바카라�s seasoned, octogenarian warhorse, Sharad Pawar, doesn바카라�t hold back. In Satara, his speech was muffled on account of the facial deformation that he has sustained in his ongoing battle with cancer. But his words packed a punch. 바카라�Be it 84 or 90 years, this old man will not stop,바카라� he declared, setting off roars from the crowd. Pawar promised that he would not rest until he brings Maharashtra on the 바카라�right track바카라�.

For those who바카라�d dared to write him off, the message was clear, with a hint of defiance that he would not relent until the BJP is defeated. As part of the Maharashtra바카라�s Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which includes the Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP-Sharad Pawar) has taken on the lead role in the Opposition바카라�s plot to oust the BJP from power. And the spotlight is now on Pawar.

For Pawar and Thackeray, the upcoming election for Maharashtra바카라�s 288-member legislative assembly is a personal battle. The polls mark a pivotal moment for their political survival as regional parties risk becoming marginalised players against a formidable BJP, say political experts.

바카라�It바카라�s an existential battle for the NCP and the Sena to assert their identity and reinforce regional politics against the BJP바카라�s unipolar nationalist brand of politics,바카라� says Girish Kuber, senior journalist and editor of Marathi daily Loksatta.

The NCP split into two factions last year when Pawar바카라�s nephew, senior leader Ajit Pawar, left the party with a majority of MLAs to join the ruling BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena coalition government. This breakup left Sharad Pawar with just 14 MLAs. Party leaders claimed the move was engineered to end Pawar바카라�s political career and undermine the NCP바카라�s regional influence. Pawar also faced sharp criticism from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who mocked him as a bhatakti aatma (wandering spirit) and suggested he join the BJP.

The Shiv Sena experienced a similar split in 2022, when Shinde broke away with a majority of MLAs, forcing the then-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to step down. Sena leaders also accused the BJP of attempting to dismantle their party and weaken Maharashtra. Both Thackeray and Pawar ultimately lost their parties바카라� original symbols and official nomenclatures after their leaders defected to join the BJP바카라�s Mahayuti coalition. This unprecedented political upheaval, with a split in Maharashtra바카라�s two main regional parties, plunged the state into deep instability and confusion.

The two regional parties have split into four units now! The Shiv Sena led by Shinde and its faction Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the NCP led by deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and NCP (Sharad Pawar).

The assembly election will be a trial by fire for the NCP, the Shiv Sena and its two factions. While Shinde and Ajit Pawar currently have the backing of the BJP, they must win maximum seats to prove their credibility and retain their position in the ruling alliance.

Ajit Pawar faces a challenging task ahead, especially after his poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections, where he managed to secure only a single seat. He바카라�ll need not only to boost his party바카라�s performance, but also to win key constituencies where his candidates will be contesting against the NCP-SP faction. For Shinde, too, securing the maximum seats against the Thackeray faction will be crucial.

Kuber notes that in the current scenario, Thackeray and Sharad Pawar enjoy significant public sympathy. Popular sentiment pits the perception that the BJP, a non Maharashtra-rooted party, created fissures between the state바카라�s two symbolically significant political parties led by the Pawars and the Thackerays. This sentiment could be their best opportunity to convert ground support into votes and reclaim lost power.

바카라�Under Thackeray, the Shiv Sena lost its regional connection when it shifted its agenda towards secular Hindutva and aligned with the Congress and the NCP to form the MVA alliance,바카라� he says. 바카라�For the NCP, Sharad Pawar remains its last towering leader, with the party바카라�s identity and appeal deeply tied to him. Both parties now need to prove their strength in the elections,바카라� he adds, emphasising that the survival of regional parties like the Sena and the NCP is essential to preserving the current federal structure.

Maharashtra바카라�s politics has long been defined by the regional characteristics of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, which maintain a strong grassroot connection and embody regional sentiment within the federal structure, says Parimal Maya Sudhakar, a professor at the MIT World Peace University, Pune.

Sena is prominent in the urban areas of Mumbai, Pune, Nashik and the Konkan region, while the NCP enjoys a strong support base among the Maratha community and dominates Western Maharashtra. Leaders of the two parties have helmed the power structure, serving as chief minister, deputy chief minister and holding other key ministerial posts.

바카라�In linguistic states, the existence of regional parties is important in raising regional sentiments vis-a-vis Hindi-speaking states and protecting the autonomy of the state at the national level,바카라� Sudhakar adds.

Since their formation, the Sena and the NCP바카라�s politics have revolved around protecting regional interests. Bal Thackeray formed Shiv Sena in 1966 based on the sons of the soil agenda, and the party바카라�s politics was rooted in safeguarding the native Marathi identity and pride. Sharad Pawar, who left the Congress to form the NCP in 1999, has established a strong leadership in Maharashtra바카라�s sugar cooperatives and agricultural credit cooperative societies.

The dominance of the Sena and the NCP compelled national parties like the Congress and the BJP to play the role of junior partners earlier. This was until 2014, when the Sena-BJP saffron alliance came apart after being wedded together since 1989.

With the rise of Hindutva politics and Modi바카라�s increasing popularity, the BJP refused to play second fiddle to the Sena. The BJP바카라�s emergence as the single largest party also meant that the party바카라�s political face, Devendra Fadnavis, was anointed as the first BJP chief minister of the state.

The BJP has since expanded its hold on the state바카라�s politics, relegating regional parties to the margins. In 2019, after the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena split with the BJP and formed the ruling MVA alliance with the NCP and the Congress, relations between the state government and the Centre turned acrimonious. The Centre versus State battle caused the state to suffer economically as it lost several foreign investments and industrial projects, a point being driven home by the Thackaray바카라�s Sena faction and the Sharad Pawar바카라�s NCP.

The political skullduggery and horse-trading in the state, since 2022, were orchestrated by the BJP to undermine Maharashtra바카라�s unique regional identity, known for its progressive politics, cultural advancement and social movements, says Prakash Akolkar, an author and long-time Sena expert. The BJP uses regional parties as crutches to expand its presence in the state, and once in power, it absorbs them through its politics of manoeuvring. He cites the status of the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha and the Asom Gana Parishad in Assam as examples.

바카라�The BJP is trying to wipe out the influence of regional parties in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. It propagates the agenda of 바카라�one country, one language바카라� and does not want regionalism to thrive,바카라� says Akolkar.

Will Sharad Pawar바카라�s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray바카라�s Sena stage a comeback in the upcoming polls, reviving the sustained strength of regionalism, or will the BJP succeed with its unilateral nationalism? The results of the assembly elections hold the ballot to this answer.

(This appeared in the print as 'Maha vs Bharat')