Abandon Ship!

There are scattered storm clouds on the horizon and the sea has turned slightly choppy. But the captain insists that the ship is sailing fine, its hull as strong as ever. Why, then, are some deck hands abandoning this mighty vessel바카라�the all-conquering warship of the BJP? Political experts believe the party has reasons to worry. The signs are too ominous to ignore, they say. First, its oldest ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Days later, a key regional player바카라�the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)바카라�also quit the NDA ahead of the assembly elections in Bihar.

The LJP, which has been flexing muscles over seat-sharing for a long time, however, says that it broke ranks due to ideological differences with Janata Dal (United) and that it will continue to support the BJP at the Centre. It will come as little consolation to the party which has lost support of four major partners in the past two years. This despite the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to hold sway over a large chunk of voters. The BJP believes that the exits are unl­ikely to hurt as parliamentary elections are still three-and-a-half years away.

ALSO READ:

But political analysts see the developments differently, more so in the case of the Akali Dal바카라�s exit over three contentious farm laws that have sparked peasants바카라� protests across the country. Sanjay Kumar, director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), say that unlike other allies, the Akali walkout will hurt the saffron party바카라�s image, as it was based on a policy issue. 바카라�A coalition government is expected to take its allies into confidence in major issues. The BJP바카라�s image will suffer바카라�as the party will be portrayed as anti-farmer,바카라� Kumar says.

Though SAD바카라�s move is seen as an eff­ort to salvage its own depleting vote bank on its home turf Punjab, senior party leader and Rajya Sabha MP Naresh Gujral tells Outlook that the BJP never gave due importance to its allies or consulted them on policy iss­ues. 바카라�The alliance existed only on paper. The NDA used to meet only for half-an-hour before every session of Parliament. No substantive issues were discussed with the partners, whether it바카라�s the farm bills, scrapping of Article 370 or CAA,바카라� rues Gujral. The BJP leadership never made any efforts to mollify its allies, he says, adding that former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee fulfilled his coalition dharma in letter and spirit but Modi바카라�s BJP only believes in making arbitrary decisions.

The BJP바카라�s erstwhile partners say it is time for the party to introspect the reasons behind the desertions. Observers cite the BJP바카라�s brute majority at the Centre as the reason for its indifference바카라�some say arrogance바카라�tow­ards its partners. In the 552-member Lok Sabha, the BJP alone has 303 seats out of NDA바카라�s 335. The first to quit the NDA was the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in 2018, followed by the Shiv Sena, a major regional player and a Hindutva flag-bearer which is ideologically closest to the BJP. Later, it was the turn of the All-Jharkhand Students바카라� Union (AJSU) Party, followed by the Akalis recently.

When the Akali Dal ended its two-and-a half-decade association with the NDA over the passage of three farm bills, many saw it as a major shift in coalition politics in the country. Though there were rifts in the alliance over a clutch of issues such as the passage of the citizenship amendment act (CAA), the contentious farm bills have riled several coalition partners. Even the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik had opposed the bills and suggested modifications.

A defiant BJP has maintained an all-is-well stand in public, but insiders admit that the ally troubles and an anti-farmer image may cast a shadow on the upcoming bypolls in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Bypolls are scheduled for November 3 in eight assembly seats in UP and 28 in MP바카라�agrarian states that are seeing intensified farmer protests.

With assembly polls slated next year in crucial states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala, the Opposition is likely to ret­ain the mom­entum and use the new farm laws as a potential campaign weapon against the BJP. The impression of the BJP as a poor coalition manager may also ref­lect in states like Tamil Nadu, where the BJP is an ally of the ruling AIADMK. The experience of disenchanted allies may dissuade small parties to join hands with the BJP. The Akali Dal has alr­eady hinted that it will go with compatible parties for the 2022 Punjab assembly elections.

Former allies say their partnership with the BJP had always been on shaky grounds. 바카라�The Modi government never kept its promises with its alliance partners. The PM earlier said disinvestment will not happen, but they went back on their word. They kept us in the dark about all important decisions, whether it is disinvestment or GST. We stayed in the alliance only for the sake of our Hindutva ideology,바카라� says Shiv Sena바카라�s Lok Sabha MP Arvind Sawant, adding that partners never got an audience with the BJP top brass to air their concerns. The Sena parted ways with the NDA over government formation in Maharashtra in 2019, ending a 25-year partnership over power-sharing and the chief minister바카라�s post. Sawant, who was the lone Sena cabinet minister in the Modi government, says that unl­ike Vajpayee바카라�s tenure, the current NDA dispensation often resorts to bulldozing its decisions and never adhered to its promises.

Former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu cited the same reasons while severing ties with the NDA in March 2018.  Naidu quit over the demand for special category status for the state. Another former ally, the AJSU Party in Jharkhand which broke its 19-year-old tie with the BJP last year, also airs similar concerns of neg­lect and lack of communication from the BJP top brass. The two fell out after the BJP refused to give in to the AJSU바카라�s demand for a larger share of seats in the Jharkhand assembly polls.

AJSU leader Sudesh Mahto tells Outlook that the BJP should have constituted state- and central-level coordination committees to address the concerns of allies. 바카라�The NDA should appoint a chairman and hold meetings with its allies frequently. They should have wider consultation with allies in matters such as agricultural bills. First, the government has to consult and convince its allies on this,바카라� Mahto adds.

Despite the revolt by major allies, the BJP can take solace from the fact that its ties with Bihar partner JD(U) is int­act. Aside a troubled past and not-so-cordial relationship between Nitish Kumar and Modi, the alliance seems to be strong, say analysts. Political analyst Manisha Priyam believes that the LJP바카라�s exit would not have any significant impact on the state elections. 바카라�The BJP doesn바카라�t need to worry in Bihar as CM Nitish Kumar is playing a smart political game by bringing together all the Dalits. Kumar got Jitan Ram Manjhi into the NDA to consolidate Mahadalit votes. This is to counter (Ram Vilas) Paswan,바카라� Priyam adds.

JD(U) general secretary K.C. Tyagi says that though they are part of the NDA, his party has not made any compromise on ideological issues and will continue to do so in the future. 바카라�We will continue with the NDA with wider consultation on certain ideological issues. We disagreed with the BJP on many issues, inc­luding scrapping of Article 370. We walked out of Parliament during voting. We did not support the NRC also. On Uniform Civil Code, we are of the opinion that wider consultation is necessary,바카라� says Tyagi. However, he says the opinion of his party is often conveyed to the BJP leadership through media and other platforms. 바카라�We usually present our opinion through media int­erviews or written articles,바카라� says Tyagi.

With Ram Vilas Paswan바카라�s son, Chirag Paswan, seeking votes for the BJP-LJP, there are worries for the JD(U). With the BJP seeking to get out of Nitish바카라�s shadow, a strong show by the saffron party with the LJP could spell trouble for the JD(U). And past history shows that Nitish Kumar has never liked to play second fiddle. Will he stick to the NDA if pushed to a corner? The res­ults of the Bihar polls will also determine the fate of the BJP-JD(U) partnership in Bihar.