Geography Becomes History: Will Abrogation of Article 370 Bring Peace to Kashmir?

No bugles pierced the silence in Srinagar perhaps, but the symbolism carried all the awe and solemnity of a world-historic transfer of power. A little after 7 pm on August 6, 2019, when Parliament passed the resolution that turned Article 370 into a dead letter, the office of Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik quietly removed the red state flag from his table, leaving the tricolour as the lone sentinel. It will be the same everywhere else in the two newly anointed Union territories바카라�Jammu and Kashmir (a physically truncated, and staturally diminished version of the state that adorned geography textbooks) and Ladakh. If things go according to one plan바카라�if the ground can be kept calm바카라�a grander, more triumphal and full-size re-enactment may be expected on August 15, with Union home minister Amit Shah doing the honours right there on Lal Chowk.

That there exists a healthy quantum of doubt on that ­sequence of events, at least as we go to press, speaks of the other side of reality. The red flags that represented the 바카라�special identity바카라� of the erstwhile state may have been rolled up and removed, but it will probably be a long while before the tricolour can be unfurled without the presence of thousands of security personnel anywhere in the state바카라�sorry, make that Union territory, a phrase that has gained a new depth of meaning in the last week. Over one lakh troops ­patrol Kashmir (unofficial estimates peg it at much more.) As you read this, tanks are out in the streets of Srinagar, and columns of heavily armed personnel file by in breathless streets. Section 144 is in place바카라�so no assembly of five or more people. Schools are shut. Internet, mobile services, cable TV services, landlines: blocked. State political leaders: under house arrest. Even by Kashmir바카라�s chequered and trauma-filled past, this looks to be a new chapter바카라�and a long haul. There바카라�s no timeline, as of now, for this total ­shutdown. Out on the LoC, Bofors guns are in readiness.

The momentous changes wrought by the government바카라�steered by Amit Shah through Parliament바카라�have starkly different technical and practical aspects. The virtual annulling of Article 370, the state reorganisation바카라�all this has fructified on paper, but it has to pass other challenges. Experts feel its legal tenability may be suspect (see), and hard scrutiny may ask some very serious questions of it. There is the small matter of international reactions바카라�China has made bristling noises, and Pakistan, besides ­expelling India바카라�s high commissioner Ajay Bisaria on August 7, promises to approach the UN (see To Cash in on Kashmir). Over and above that looms the aspect that Shah will be keenly following: local acceptability, or want of it, and how that gets articulated. An internal MHA document titled 바카라�The Future Ahead of Kashmir바카라�, accessed by Outlook, foresees a 바카라�long and bloody struggle바카라�, comparing the situation to the US civil war! It says the people of India must go through such a 바카라�struggle바카라� for the 바카라�integration of Kashmir바카라�, seeking to invoke a kind of moral mandate, but in no way blind to the fact that the path will be conflictual.

바카라�There will be violence instigated바카라�when the nation takes recourse to such action, but that cannot, and must not, deter the State from preserving the right to equality, ­enshrined in the Constitution,바카라� the document says. 바카라�If it leads to a long and bloody struggle to preserve the basic character of the Constitution바카라�we, the people of India, must go through with such struggle. We must remember that in the USA, the North went to war with the South over the issue of human rights and Abraham Lincoln won the day. For the good of the people of India and for the ­residents of J&K, Articles 370 and 35A must be repealed forthwith as it will pave the way for the development of the state and its total integration with the Union.바카라�

In the first instance, the anticipation of mass protests led to the massive reinforcement of troops and what the New York Times called 바카라�an information black hole바카라�. Sources say National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was closely involved in the process, visiting the Valley in the run-up and then again to take stock. 바카라�The precautions were taken based on his assessment. The ­government didn바카라�t want to take any chances,바카라� a top security official reveals.

How long the bandobast and the iron curtain will stay is unclear. A 바카라�volcano바카라� is bubbling under the surface, says the official, waiting to erupt at the first sign of a crack바카라�the moment security is eased, the Valley will go up in flames. 바카라�Shah intends to fulfil all promises about developing Kashmir, promoting tourism, setting up industries, modern infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and universities, and creating jobs. The new UT awaits the investors바카라� summit later this year as a litmus test to see how much interest businessmen and industrialists show in the wounded ­region. But bringing peace and prosperity to Kashmir is not an easy promise to keep,바카라� he says.

Local acceptance would seem like a chimera at this point바카라�what with mass anger having peaked the way it did since Burhan Wani바카라�s killing three years ago. Politics of Kashmir has in recent years been largely set in the street; even the separatist pantheon in the Hurriyat appeared to be led by popular sentiment, rather than leading it. But the initial ­signals of a potential thaw and dialogue, just a few weeks ago, have encountered a sudden death바카라�with Shah pooh-poohing the very idea. Forget the nuances about the moderate/hardline split in the Hurriyat, even mainstream political leaders바카라�those traditionally seen as 바카라�pro-India바카라� in the Valley바카라�now seem to be persona non grata and redundant in New Delhi바카라�s scheme of things. A leader like Mehbooba Mufti, who was CM in coalition with the BJP just a year ago, having to be put in house arrest means the whole formal political sector in Kashmir바카라�the PDP and the National Conference바카라�has been painted into a corner that they바카라�ll share with the separatists, and beyond them, the militants.

Insurgency in Kashmir, of course, isn바카라�t dead. A spike in militant killings was matched of late by an unusual surge in local recruitment into their ranks after years. There바카라�s also the churning within that space, with elements espousing loyalty to the Caliphate-spouting ISIS bringing a new, disturbing colour to the palette of violent resistance. The spectre of global Islamist terror hovers close바카라�Sri Lanka wasn바카라�t too long back, and al-Qaeda supremo Ayman al- Zawahiri had made a direct pitch to Kashmiri mujahideen just last month. It was dismissed as rhetoric, but any quietus won바카라�t be for want of precipitating circumstances now. A military flare-up, mercifully, is only a remote possibility, with Pakistan tied up on its own western front. But quiet frontiers are not to be taken for granted in the best of times; intelligence agencies have reports of Pakistan military contemplating a series of actions. And the UNGA in September will be a parallel theatre of war. Besides Pakistan, China has real stakes in the goings-on and is unh­appy with the alteration of Ladakh바카라�s status. Remember the Daulat Beg Oldi incident of 2013: that was on the edge of the 38,000-sq-km swathe of Aksai Chin. When it was pointed out that the new UTs seemed to omit PoK and Aksai Chin, Shah made a forceful rebuttal in Parliament, saying he would 바카라�lay down his life바카라� for those territories.

바카라�(But) now is the time for some diplomacy,바카라� says an intelligence official. 바카라�The government is not just dealing with 10 districts of Kashmir but with three countries바카라�Pakistan, China and the US. The euphoria isn바카라�t going to last too long. It바카라�s good the first step to integrate Kashmir has been taken but there바카라�s no point in ­making jingoistic statements on PoK and Aksai Chin. Indian leaders need to temper their statements,바카라� he adds.

The dramatic set of moves바카라�some called them the most momentous since the Emergency바카라�has also created zones of great elation. The mass populist ­appeal apart, one political sector has long worked and argued for the abrogation of Article 370. Among those for whom it was a life-long article of faith is senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi, the first one to unfurl the tricolour in Srinagar바카라�s Lal Chowk back in 1992, when militancy was at its peak바카라�Modi, strikingly, was part of his retinue then. Often critical of Modi and Shah in ­recent times, Joshi calls these 바카라�historic and bold바카라� decisions. 바카라�We have always held the Constituent Assembly decision to formulate Article 370 was wrong. My personal view is Nehru was somehow manipulated by the British to give special status to Kashmir without taking Patel into confidence. Syama Prasad Mookerjee was convinced there was a conspiracy,바카라� Joshi tells Outlook. 바카라�The decision needs to be accepted by all and implemented with a positive and futuristic vision,바카라� says Joshi, adding 바카라�we couldn바카라�t do it when Vajpayee was PM only because we didn바카라�t have the numbers in Parliament바카라�.

Joshi also waves away concerns about Kashmir바카라�s demographic profile being altered. 바카라�It cannot remain an exclusive region. Kashmiriyat will be restored only when Kashmiri Pandits can go back there, when others can settle there. Migrations happen in all parts of the country. It바카라�s now the Centre바카라�s responsibility to create harmony, bring development and establish law and order there so people can go and settle,바카라� he says. That call goes right to the heart of the most cherished dream for another segment of humanity: the Kashmiri Pandits, who have spent three decades in a long exile. Activist Sushil Pandit says he definitely wants to return to 바카라�my land, my home, my temple바카라�my pilgrimage.바카라� The Modi government has joined them in their fight to reclaim their land, he says. 바카라�For 30 years, we had even lost hope. Now we see hope. No matter how much time it takes바카라�even one more generation, or more바카라�we shall win this battle, and go and live on our land,바카라� he tells Outlook.

This 바카라�epoch-changing decision바카라�completely rev­erses our response to the challenges in Kashmir,바카라� says Pandit, embittered and angry by the years of despair, and fairly representative of how his community views the whole imbroglio. 바카라�Till now, the response was placatory, offering concessions and sops to our tormentors. We gave them autonomy, and understated the problem as some kind of ali­enation and disaffection. We lived in denial, while a war was declared on us. They expelled Kashmiri Hindus and we called them misled, angry boys. The country바카라�s leaders would negotiate with them, invite them for breakfast and hug them,바카라� says Pandit.

He바카라�s happy the paradigm has changed from 바카라�the strange ­notion of winning hearts and minds바카라�, from the days when New Delhi would even pay for the treatment abroad of separatist leaders. 바카라�There바카라�s a 180 degree shift. They had autonomy, ­immunity from our Constitution바카라�and still wanted azadi. Now, after 30 years of blood, gore and genocide, they end up with all concessions withdrawn and as a Union territory,바카라� he adds, with a touch of satisfaction.

Another Pandit, who left his home in Kashmir in the early 1990s and now a successful industrialist, is happy the Modi government has destroyed the status quo, but questions the presence of security forces. 바카라�How long will the army and ­paramilitary stay there? The separatists have changed the Valley in the past 30 years, and there바카라�s no way we can go back. This revocation has come very late. Maybe I don바카라�t want to go back because I have established a business, but I바카라�m sure many Pandits are waiting to reclaim their land, so are many non-Kashmiris,바카라� says the septuagenarian businessman.

One reason the government was able to capture the legislative space was, of course, the abysmal state of the Opposition. Many parties supported the move. Even the Congress, leaderless and rudderless, did not seem to know how to orient itself to this challenge. But despite some disarray in its ranks, it made some forceful interventions. Former J&K CM Ghulam Nabi Azad said the government had chopped off the head of the country, destroyed history, and ­betrayed people who had stood by India by not taking their consent. 바카라�Integration happens by the heart, not by legislation,바카라� he said. Former home minister P. Chidambaram called it a 바카라�cardinal blunder바카라� and a 바카라�fatal legal error바카라�, and added darkly: 바카라�Future generations will realise what a grave mistake this House is making.바카라�

The stated misgivings are broadly along three axes. There is, firstly, the question of democratic ethics: how can such fundamental changes be wrought to a people바카라�s life and world without their consent? The second, the legal conundrum, partly flows from that. Is it not specious, and very risky for Centre-state relations in the long term, to say the governor is an ­adequate instrument to voice the people바카라�s will? Also, more technically, was Article 370 not immune to being modified via another part of the Constitution (Article 367)?

Lastly, the deeply held apprehensions in the Valley also have to do with the spectre of a demographic takeover via settlements: the favourite strategy of state colonisation across the world. WhatsApp jokes proliferated from the first day about plots for sale in the Valley; and a real low was touched with sexist comments, including from a BJP leader in UP, about 바카라�fair Kashmiri girls바카라� now being available for marriage. Before the internet went off in the Valley, Mehbooba had tweeted: 바카라�GoI바카라�s intention is clear & sinister. They want to change the ­demography of the only Muslim-majority state in India, ­disempower Muslims to the extent where they become ­second class citizens in their own state.바카라�

The MHA document, however, harks back to history to show Kashmir did not always use its powers in the past with democratic ethics in mind. In 1981, the state assembly passed the J&K Resettlement Act, opening the doors to those Kashmiris and their descendants who had migrated to Pakistan or PoK in 1947, to return as legitimate citizens and take charge of their ancestral properties. However, refugees from PoK and their descendants, numbering about 1.5 million today, have consistently been kept beyond the pale, been denied the ­status of 바카라�state subjects바카라�, and never allowed to settle. (These communities have been demanding their right to the 24 ­assembly seats left vacant in the name of PoK.) 바카라�Ironically, Muslim refugees from Xinjiang and Tibet, who had migrated to Kashmir following Chinese occupation of their countries in 1949 and 1959 respectively, have been granted 바카라�state subject바카라� status, along with voting rights,바카라� the document points out. 바카라�The communal agenda of previous state administrations was, thus, clear바카라�. Article 35A was the instrument.바카라�

Jamyang Tsering Namgyal, the young BJP MP from Ladakh, adds another regional angle. 바카라�You talk of demographics? Do you know what happened in Ladakh? The Muslim population has increased and Buddhists, who were in majority, have gone down. Is this secularism?바카라� asks the 33-year-old Lok Sabha first-timer, talking to Outlook. He바카라�s happy Ladakh will now be liberated, no longer 바카라�overshadowed by Kashmir-centric politics바카라�. Two happy sides will not complete the triangle, though. What바카라�s missing in the Kashmir story, as of now, is Kashmir.