BJP's South Indian Conquest: Why It's A Work In Progress

The news from across the Vindhyas so far hasn바카라�t been heartening to the BJP바카라�except in Karnataka, where a political cliffhanger is playing out, close behind the party바카라�s near-sweep in Lok Sabha polls. Chairing a mee­ting of the BJP바카라�s key leaders last month, Union home minister Amit Shah said the party바카라�s success story would be complete only when it conquers the region south of the Vindhyas that has been largely elusive to the saffron brigade for many years. Meanwhile, the Karnataka muddle is brimming with sub-plots, much of which is of the discordant JD(S)-­Congress coalition바카라�s own making, though aided by a BJP impatient to form the government.

Though it is the single largest party in Karnataka바카라�s assembly, the numbers needed for the BJP to wrest power seemed a bit out of reach until July when, suddenly, 16 ruling coalition MLAs brought the H.D. Kumara­swamy government to a precarious perch. CM Kumaraswamy recently tweeted the flight manifest of a ­charter aircraft as proof that BJP men had been escorting Congress legis­lators to Mahara­shtra, where rebel MLAs had been holding out ahead of the vote of confidence in the Karnataka assembly.

The BJP바카라�s growth in Karnataka began much before the Modi-Shah era, but the recent Lok Sabha results바카라�in which the party bagged 25 of the 28 seats바카라�were its best ever. Compare this with the BJP바카라�s overall southern scoresheet바카라�it got four out of 17 seats in Telangana, but drew a blank in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. With a firm foothold in Karnataka and Telangana, the party is looking to expand in a big way in the south. For that, it is taking cues from the impressive victories in West Bengal and Odisha, where it bagged 18 out of 42 and five of 21 seats, ­respectively. Enough lessons have been learnt from past follies and its time to script a new south story, say the BJP leaders in charge of the southern region. The focus has now been shifted to the assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The south바카라�Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, ­Karna­taka and Pondicherry바카라�­accounts for 130 Lok Sabha seats. Speaking about expansion plans in the region, Rajya Sabha MP G.V.L. ­Narasi­mha Rao of the BJP says the party has set an ambitious target of adding 20 per cent more members in each state. A massive membership drive has ­already been launched. 바카라�We ­expect that the south will contribute to the 2024 Lok Sabha res­ults just the way Odisha and Bengal did in 2019. We expect the two Telugu states and Kerala to deliver a large number of seats,바카라� says Rao.

In keeping with its southern ambitions, the BJP is also looking to shed its image as a north Indian party. Party leaders acknowledge that they have to overcome some hurdles in the region, mainly due to linguistic, geographic, historic and religious factors, for making the desired ­perceptual change possible. Admitting that drawing more people from the south into the BJP demands bridging the north-south gap, senior leader Lalitha Kumaramangalam says the party is looking at solutions such as promoting competent southern ­leaders at the Centre. 바카라�We need to pay more attention to local ­demands and the problems of the states. We are mulling the interlinking of rivers to benefit the Cauvery delta farmers and its riverine states. We will also address the neglect of the major southern metropolises such as Bangalore and Chennai,바카라� adds Kumaramangalam.

Political observers feel that as the BJP바카라�s narrative of Hindutva fails to make any impact in the southern states, it may experiment with caste-based mobilisation instead. Analysts trace the BJP바카라�s rise in Karnataka to the split in the Janata Dal in the late 1990s, which started the gradual shifting of the electorally important Lingayat community towards the BJP led by former CM B.S. Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat leader. The Vokkaligas, another populous community, are largely seen to back the JD(S), but the recent Lok Sabha results suggest that the BJP could have emerged as an option for some sections of the community, reckons political scientist Valerian Rodrigues. 바카라�The elite of the Vokkaliga community is strongly with the BJP,바카라� he tells Outlook. 바카라�Political ambition and alienation of sorts led the Lingayats to the BJP, but with the Vokkaligas, the party has built up a ­religious kind of nexus.바카라�

Rodrigues feels the BJP is following a strong regional, community and caste-wise strategy to strengthen ­itself in the south, most visibly in Telangana and among some of the OBC castes in southern Tamil Nadu. 바카라�It바카라�s a three-pronged strategy바카라�reach out to specific castes and communities, pick regions of priority and see where there are very fragile combinations that can be broken,바카라� he says.

According to political analyst Sandeep Shastri, who believes it is simplistic to say that BJP uses a single agenda to build its base in the south, the BJP바카라�s next stop after Karnataka will be Telangana, where it is emerging as the alternative to the ruling TRS led by K. Chandrashekar Rao. 바카라�It바카라�s not that the BJP is looking for a quick fix turnover in the south,바카라� says Shastri. 바카라�Even if the BJP emerges as the largest opposition party, it would be a huge achievement. See how they have emerged as Mamata Banerjee바카라�s principal opponent in Bengal. It바카라�s not about coming to power, it바카라�s about emerging as a key player in the states.바카라�

Building organisational strength is the key priority, admit leaders of the BJP, which has been aggressively ­recruiting from other parties. As Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have witnessed large-scale defections to the BJP from other parties, the leaders Outlook spoke to concede that it is indeed an emerging trend. 바카라�The way to grow is certainly by expansion,바카라� says Narasimha Rao. 바카라�What is undemocratic about former MLA or MPs joining the BJP? (Former Andhra CM) N. Chandrababu Naidu had brought 23 YSR Congress MLAs into the TDP in the past five years and made four of them ministers. The Congress and others should look back and stop complaining.바카라�

Agrees BJP general secretary P. Muralidhar Rao, who adds: 바카라�In the coming days, you will see more people from other parties joining the BJP and also our voteshare rising. In the next two years, the BJP will be the only ­opposition party in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, where 36 lakh new members will be added as part of our membership drive. Both the states are going to witness major political ­realignment in the coming days.바카라�

AP and Telangana

In the two Telugu states, the BJP is trying to fill the political vacuum left by the decimation of two powerful ­parties바카라�the TDP and the Congress바카라�in the general elections. 바카라�We are ­working hard to build the party from the ­grassroots,바카라� says Sunil Deodhar, the BJP바카라�s national secretary in charge of Andhra Pradesh. 바카라�We are here for development, but won바카라�t compromise on our ideology and tolerate con­version or appeasement of minorities for votebank politics.바카라� The BJP has a fair chance if it can do a social ­chu­rning to accomplish its dream to ­capture power in the 2023 assembly polls, reckons political commentator Kollu Anka Babu. 바카라�The BJP should strike a ­balance bet­ween the two ­economically powerful and influential communities바카라�the Kapu and the Kamma바카라�­­­bes­ides taking along the ­minorities and other backward ­communities,바카라� he says.

With the massive exodus to the BJP from the TDP, the prospects of the ­revival of Naidu바카라�s party appear quite bleak. 바카라�Revival is distant dream under Naidu,바카라� says a senior TDP functionary. 바카라�We have little option but to look for greener ­pastures and safer havens. In the ­prevailing scenario, there is no scope for the Congress, which is dead and gone. As the YSR Congress led by Jaganmohan Reddy is dominated by his own community members, we were left with just one option바카라�the BJP, which is emerging as the most powerful party in the country.바카라�

Unlike Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP has to start from scratch, Telangana is smoother sailing. Though the party fared badly in the 2018 ­ass­embly polls, it bounced back by winning four of the 17 Lok Sabha seats this year. The party seizes an ­advantageous position if the OBCs바카라�a major bloc in Telangana­바카라�choose to support it as the alleged 바카라�minority ­appeasement바카라� by KCR is not going down well with them. It바카라�s also hoping to garner support from the influential Reddy community. BJP state unit spokesperson Krishna Sagar Rao claims that many Congress and TDP leaders, ­besides disgruntled TRS members, are willing to join the party. 바카라�Many senior leaders who had left us to join the TRS have returned. We are open to admitting anyone who is ­opposed to dynastic rule at the Centre and in the state,바카라� he says. 바카라�Our party is changing with the times. It바카라�s not an NGO or a ­religious outfit like the VHP.바카라�

Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu continues to give stiff resistance to the BJP, leaving the party struggling to catch the pulse of Dravidian politics. Its central leaders say their priority is to strengthen alliances in the state. 바카라�We have to strengthen them well ahead of elections,바카라� says MP Narasimha Rao. 바카라�We already have a formidable alliance with the AIADMK. It can do well.바카라�

The party has also been handicapped by the absence of a charismatic state-level leader. The central leadership is apparently considering Nainar Nagendran for the role. The former AIADMK member joined the BJP two years ago. 바카라�I will do anything the party asks me to,바카라� says Nagendran, who was a minister in the erstwhile J. Jayalalithaa government. Belonging to the powerful OBC Thevar community, he is expected to help the BJP grow in south and central Tamil Nadu.

Observers say the party may also try to piggyback on leaders like actor Rajinikanth to consolidate its position. 바카라�For the AIADMK, it바카라�s all going downhill. The BJP is cleverly trying to ­create an alternative to the DMK ­alliance and may rope in leaders like Rajinikanth,바카라� says Shastri.

Kerala

In god바카라�s own country, the BJP-led NDA may have come a cropper again in the Lok Sabha elections, but closer analyses of the voteshare prove that there is a steady pattern of ­ideological Hindutva becoming ­electoral Hindutva in the state. 바카라�Steady inc­rease in voteshare over the past three general elections shows a definitive gain for the party,바카라� says Prof P.K. Yasser Arafath of Delhi University바카라�s history department. 바카라�The micro det­ails of the three ­elections show that the BJP has been growing fast. With this growth rate, which is most likely to persist, the Sangh parivar is not far  away from capturing about half of the majority electorate in the next 10 years. A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey shows how the NDA successfully ­secured more than 38 per cent of the privileged caste vote in 2019. An undivided 50 per cent from the majority electorate would definitely help the BJP make strong inroads into Kerala.바카라�

BJP바카라�s state president P.S. ­­­­Sree­dharan Pillai is obviously a happy man. 바카라�Our voteshare saw a 56 per cent increase from the last elections,바카라� he says. Political analyst J. Prabhash says the party is all set to gain in the state. 바카라�Though I wouldn바카라�t say we are going to see an immediate ­­­sea-change in electoral results, the rise in the party바카라�s voteshare is significant,바카라� he adds.

Prabhash believes there are three factors to be considered. 바카라�The Sabarimala issue has certainly helped the BJP secure a number of votes. Then, the coalition with the BDJS and the Kerala Congress (Thomas) has given them a sort of legitimacy. Third is the fact that the Congress is getting weaker in many pockets.바카라�

The BJP has set a target of doubling party membership in the state. 바카라�We want to bring more people, including members of the minority community, into the party,바카라� says Pillai. With the BJP policy of wooing the minorities바카라�alr­eady a few Christian leaders are with them in Kerala바카라�the party is slowly but steadily making electoral gains in its last post to conquer in the south.

By Preetha Nair in Delhi, Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore, G.C. Shekhar in Chennai  with M.S. Shanker in Hyderabad and Sabin Iqbal in Kochi