Fast And Furious Mayawati In Damage Control Mode But Will Snapping Ties With Samajwadi Party Help?

The Lok Sabha election results have not ceased having an effect on India바카라�s political landscape바카라�like a temblor with many aftershocks. Opposition parties still seem to be in post-traumatic shock everywhere. But there바카라�s an unusual churn in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, and one party is not wasting any time in trauma ward. Unlike her counterparts바카라�most of whom are still groping in the dark after the electoral drubbing바카라�BSP supremo Mayawati has been making some quick moves to cut her losses and revive her career. An astute leader, she knows things are getting desperate for her party, and the 2022 assembly polls will be crucial for her. She has embarked on a revival plan for BSP, starting off by summarily snapping ties with the Sama­jwadi Party and then, in the middle of a burst of controlled acrimony, inducting her brother and nephew into the party바카라�s power hierarchy.

Her decision to call off the much-ballyhooed mahagathbandhan with the SP, which came barely two weeks after the results, did not come as a surprise to many. She is known for her flip-flops: some observers feel it was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction, while others feel it was ­always part of Mayawati바카라�s plan to branch out solo after surviving the Lok Sabha elections in alliance. Contrary to expectations, the alliance had failed to make any significant impact. The logic of caste ­aggregation was turned on its head, and the BSP could win only 10 of the 38 seats it contested, while SP won five out of 37.

So what바카라�s the logic behind parting ways with the SP? Political observers feel there바카라�s an inherent and natural rivalry to their relationship바카라�among other things, both parties vie for the same space in terms of projecting themselves as a refuge for the Muslim community. The appointment of Danish Ali as the BSP바카라�s leader in the Lok Sabha can be seen in that light. Ali himself says going solo was aimed at 바카라�boosting the cadre바카라� ahead of the bypolls to 11 assembly seats that have fallen ­vacant after the Parliament elections. But he implicitly confirms the logic. 바카라�It바카라�s true that Yadavs didn바카라�t vote for the alliance. The BSP won 10 seats because Jatavs and Muslims voted for us. Even SP won its five seats because of the same reasons,바카라� says Ali, the MP from Amroha. Those five seats included Muslim-dominated constituencies like Rampur and Moradabad. But with Yadav loyalty thinning for the SP, it makes sense for the BSP to set itself up as the natural party of choice for a broader Dalit-Muslim-OBC bloc.

But fighting along also means reverting to a three-cornered fight바카라�four-cornered, if you include the Congress. And the SP and BSP will be back to wearing each other down, as in the past. That바카라�s why some observers believe her tactics are wrong. After all, they could have repeated 2018 바카라� when they won Lok Sabha bypolls in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana ­together. 바카라�It바카라�s a knee-jerk reaction. The alliance could have done well in state elections, unlike in the national elections. Calling off an alliance when important byelections are around the corner make no sense,바카라� political analyst Neerja Chowdhury says.

Analysts point out that the BSP did gain from the alliance more than the SP. The latter바카라�s voteshare dipped to 18 per cent from the 22.3 per cent it had garnered in 2014, while the BSP held on to its 19+ per cent. (Remember, the same voteshare had yielded zero seats to the BSP last time.) But Mayawati holds the SP responsible for the decimation of the alliance. At a review meeting, she blamed SP바카라�s attitude and cited the erosion in its core vote-bloc바카라�the Yadav community.

But it바카라�s a risky gambit and has not gone down well with people like the young Dalit radical Chandra­shekar Azad, who sees it as a setback to 바카라�Dalit politics바카라�. But others say Mayawati may have gone on the offensive fearing a backlash from her  supporters, some of whom may have been ambivalent about the Dalit-Yadav chemistry. She could be worried more about eroding Jatav votes and from those across the non-Yadav OBC spectrum. 바카라�She may be shifting the blame on the SP fearing her supporters. Another reason could be she wants to send a message to BJP by staying away from SP. She is a clear beneficiary of the alliance, otherwise she wouldn바카라�t have won in Yadav-dominated eastern UP. In fact, people believe younger Jatavs didn바카라�t vote for her, but  voted the BJP,바카라� says Chowdhury.

Dalit activist Satish Prakash believes the alliance was bound to not last as it was a mere tactical arrangement anyway. 바카라�It was no surprise that the alliance collapsed after the elections. That바카라�s how politics works. There are no permanent ties,바카라� says Prakash, an associate professor at Meerut College. Prakash says that both parties will use the byelections to test their cadre strength. 바카라�Strategies for the 2022 assembly elections will be charted out depending on the outcome,바카라� he says.

The SP is maintaining a tactful silence in response to Mayawati바카라�s unilateral agg­ression. Party spokesperson Anurag Bhadauria declined comments on the many allegations raised by Mayawati바카라�including how Akhilesh and Mulayam Singh Yadav had sabotaged her candidates.  바카라�We are not bothered about her allegations. Bygones are bygones for us. The party is only answerable to people and they know the truth,바카라� says Bhadauria. Will the SP join hands with the BSP in the future? 바카라�Only the future will tell,바카라� he says, wryly. A BSP leader, on condition of anonymity, questions the SP바카라�s priorities and degree of commitment, though, pointing out how Akhilesh is vacationing abroad when Parliament is in session.

The Yadav family, infamously, has its own internal issues. But Mayawati has now set off an unexpected dynastic turn by inducting her younger brother, Anand Kumar, as the BSP바카라�s national vice president and nephew Akash Anand as its ­national coordinator. The move has invited flak from many, including party workers, especially because she has moved contrary to a clause in her party바카라�s constitution that no relative of the ­national president could hold party positions. Says former state minister and senior BSP leader Ramveer Upadhyay, now under suspension: 바카라�All political parties are dynastic. Now Behenji has proved she바카라�s no different. Her true colours have come out.바카라� Upadhyay was suspended from the BSP just before the election results on charges of ­anti-party activities. Upadh­yay, who played a key role in mobilising elite-caste votes for the BSP, feels the party is moving away from its core base and values.

He says that though Mayawati got an overwhelming mandate in 2007, she failed to meet the ­expectations of Dalits and backwards. 바카라�Those communities had great expectations from her. But they were disappointed바카라�Behenji went away from them,바카라� says Upadhyay. 바카라�She has to bring all the bahujan바카라�including Valmikis, Kushwahas and Kurmis바카라�to the party fold. She needs to bring Brahmins into the fold. When Brahmins supported her in 2007, she formed the government. Today, they are with the BJP, so the BJP won.바카라�

But a steady movement towards the BJP is common across communities. 바카라�I would say it바카라�s a deepening of Mandal politics. It gives power to the Most Backward Communities (MBCs) and they chose Modi this time. They are not ready to play second fiddle to the Yadavs or Kurmis or anyone anymore,바카라� says Chowdhury. So if Mayawati has to make a genuine play for political space, she will have to recover the language of empowerment in real and non-token ways.