Fission Frisson

Summer 2018. The swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka chief minister H.D. Kumara­swamy witnessed some unusual mom­ents in political history바카라�the Vidhana Soudha dais turned into a theatre of visual memory. Arch-­rivals shook hands. Improbable threa­tened to become probable. If it reca­lled the heady Janata years, there was a twist. The common enemy was not the Congress, but the BJP. The Congress was on this side. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi shared space with not just Chandrababu Naidu, champion of 바카라�fed­­­eral바카라� politics, or Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, a perennially friendly party, but also more (mutually) iffy fellow travellers such as the CPI(M), represented by the amiable Sitaram Yech­ury, the Trinamool sup­remo Mamata Banerjee and AAP바카라�s Arvind Kejri­wal. That tentat­ive ente­nte didn바카라�t travel far바카라�their ess­­­­­­en­­­­tial incompatibility became the story of 2019.

At that time, this was seen as a har­binger of resurgence for coalition politics바카라�the coming together of disparate political outfits to keep the saffron alliance out of power. Some saw it as a repeat of 1967바카라�where a broad coalition led by Ram Manohar Lohia defeated the Congress in nine states. The great show of bonhomie was again on display in December in Lucknow, where the SP and BSP sealed their historic alliance, burying a quarter-century of rivalry. But the contra­dictions­­바카라�sometimes silent, often overt바카라�won the day. That part of the political spectrum which invented the whole logic of alliances, and inaugurated the coalition era, faces a dire existential crisis today. Modi 2.0 has trumped them decisively.

The NDA is also a coalition, but buttressed by a 300+ BJP, it has a strong anc­hor. On the other side, the old story of political realignments바카라�a shaky smorgasbord of satraps and would-be national leaders who can바카라�t stand each other otherwise but come together opp­ortunistically, without any defining idea바카라�has been struck down mercilessly by the voter. Some regional parties that were expected to play a significant role in the formation of the next government were in for a rude shock, and were routed in their own turf. It was a patchy logbook바카라�Maharashtra, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu saw tickmarks, at least for alliances happening, if not succeeding바카라�but big ones like UP held out a sobering veto, and Delhi stood out as a small but significant tone-setter.

In soul- searching mode, most Oppo­sition leaders admit unity across such diversity was a herculean task: both ideological differences and power-jockeying came in the way. The analysts can바카라�t but agree. 바카라�The Congress had partners but they did not constitute a coherent UPA. Previous pre-electoral UPA alliances had a Common Minimum Program and coordinated campaigns. In 2019, the Opposition ran in complete dispersed order. This was a massive disadvantage in a race that opposed them to the simple and effective proposition of one leader,바카라� says Gilles Verniers, pol­itical scientist, Ashoka University. Look no further than UP, where the seemin­gly formidable SP-BSP-RLD combination ended up looking like some latter-­­day version of the Rajput-Afghan alliance against Babur, clearly outmano­euvred by tactics and technology. The perceived watershed moment of SP-BSP linking up meant nothing without a coherent narrative.

Analysts point to how the alliance was not forged on the basis of any common programme. 바카라�The BJP formed a broader social alliance as a counter. It wooed some of the Most Backward Castes, which the other 바카라�social justice바카라� parties couldn바카라�t. The SP-BSP couldn바카라�t connect to the people, they didn바카라�t have anything to offer,바카라� says political analyst Badri Narayan. The lack of a common ideological vision left them high and dry. Their primary aim was to dislodge the Modi government, they failed to offer any 바카라�positive바카라� national narrative to voters. 바카라�Parties get carried away by the expected strength of their partnership. Alliances based on combinations of specific electoral segments run the risk of being perceived as caste alliances rather than broad political platforms,바카라� says Verniers.

In Bihar, Modi magic trounced the RJD-led caste calculus. The party itself drew a blank바카라�the first time since its formation in 1997. RJD spokesman Manoj Jha, though, dismisses talks of an existential crisis: 바카라�You cannot write the obituary of a party or an alliance after a defeat. It was a puzzled election. The narrative of nationalism dominated over economy, communal harmony, emp­­loyment바카라�. Yet, he agrees the alliance was put together at the last mom­ent. 바카라�All parties need to learn from the BJP-RSS. Politics should be a round-the-clock vocation. We should go back, identify issues locally and regionally and lead from the front,바카라� says Jha.

Tamil Nadu remained a saving grace: the DMK-led alliance won 37 of the state바카라�s 38 seats. In neighbouring Karnataka, where the JD(S)-Congress coalition government is in turmoil after the BJP swept the elections, the alliance partners are still reeling, admits JD(S) leader P.G.R. Sindhia. 바카라�Many leaders haven바카라�t overcome the shock yet. It바카라�s difficult to predict anything now,바카라� says Sin­d­hia. The JD(S) is in an introspective silence. 바카라�I can바카라�t say if we (they and Congress) will stay together. If regional leaders like Jagan, Mamata and Stalin can survive the onslaught, why not us? Certain lessons need to be learnt,바카라� he says.

Maharashtra was another graveyard for the Opposition. But the Congress-NCP alliance, whose expected 바카라�strong fight바카라� against the BJP-Shiv Sena combine was a non-starter, hopes to regain lost ground before October. 바카라�NCP-Congress will go together in assembly polls, even if the BJP has more partners. It took advantage of Hindu nat­ion­alism this time,바카라� says NCP leader Nawab Malik. They propose to counter it by focusing on agrarian distress바카라�a pitch that failed this time.

What of parties like AAP? It managed to win only one seat in Punjab바카라�out of the 40 it contested. The months-long alliance talks between the Congress and AAP cast a shadow on Opposition unity바카라�their adamant positions became a metaphor for the failure of Opposition unity. However, no lesson seems to have been learnt, as blame games take up space on the eve of impending assembly elections. That바카라�s AAP바카라�s corner. 바카라�Even if we had allied with Congress, the BJP would have won all seven in Delhi. We will go it alone in the assembly elections. No question of allying with Congress now,바카라� says AAP바카라�s Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh.  

In the South, the parties like the TDP are at the crossroads after a rout in both assembly and parliamentary elections. The severest setback was for TDP leader Naidu. 바카라�People did not accept the fact that we fought with Modi. We were allies with BJP for a long time. Traditionally, the TDP is seen as an anti-­Congress party,바카라� says TDP leader Lanka Dinakar. Will they go back to the BJP fold? Dinakar only says allying with the Congress was a mistake. 바카라�We can바카라�t say anything about the future. We have unnecessarily created a lot of enemies after breaking with NDA. The alliance with Congress created a lot of problems, especially after we criticised Congress for four years for the bifurcation of the state,바카라� says Dinakar.

A less noticed factor is the decimation of the CPI(M) in West Bengal and Kerala. Questions abound about the Left바카라�s political relevance now. CPI(M) leader Subhashini Ali says the party will put its house in order first. 바카라�We have to take stock of what happened. It바카라�s a new kind of politics. But people바카라�s issues will come to the fore soon,바카라� says Ali. 바카라�Secular democratic parties should have come together like in Tamil Nadu,바카라� says CPI바카라�s D. Raja. 바카라�They should have been more accommodative to each other. Every party has to introspect,바카라� says Raja. Admitting to a popular disconnect, Raja says the Left needs to rew­ork its political strategies.

But the overall failure haunts all of them. Verniers puts his finger on the problem: 바카라�Coalitions are the product of political fragmentation, the single-most important long-term trend in Indian politics. We have entered a phase of consolidation with the BJP, but it is going to wane eventually. Coalitions will always be there as the alternative.바카라� But yes, not just as a random aggregation, without a real story to tell.