BJP Controls The Game After Balakot As Opposition Loses Narrative

At a political rally in Patna바카라�s ico­­nic Gandhi Maidan last week, Ram Vilas Paswan was a touch more than effusive in praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 바카라�Earlier, we used to say that his chest is of 56 inches. But, today, Gandhi Maidan is honouring you by saying Narendra Modi바카라�s chest size is not 56 inches, but 156 inches.바카라� Held in the backdrop of India바카라�s dram­atic airstri­kes in PoK, and the breathless media coverage of it, the rally was nat­ura­lly dyed in those colours. With just weeks left for a general election, the political scenario has been irrevocably given a 바카라�natio­n­alistic바카라� turn. And Paswan, a wily veteran known as the best hand at spotting which way the wind is blo­w­ing, had already hitched his wagon to what he deemed the rising star. So dramatically art­iculating a theme that the ruling Nat­i­onal Democratic Alliance (NDA) will make its war cry for 2019 makes sense for him. Given the strong sentiments the theme can evoke, wha­tever else happens, 바카라�nationalism바카라� is not about to disappear from the narrative.

And that바카라�s bad news for Opposition parties, still struggling to find common ground for a possible alliance바카라�or set of alliances바카라�to take on Modi and a rejuvenated BJP. There may be doubts over the efficacy of the airstrike at the JeM camp, but there바카라�s really no doubt that among its casualties, at least in the immediate term, is the Oppo­sition. The 바카라�nation­alistic바카라� rush has knocked it off its feet when it was just finding its feet, and its best-laid, if tentative, plans have been put to waste, at least for now. Political analysts agree. 바카라�I바카라�ve no doubt that, post Balakot, the BJP will benefit electorally.  At the moment, people beli­eve that PM Modi taught a lesson to Pak­is­tan and only Modi can do it,바카라� Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for Study of Deve­loping Societies (CSDS) tells Outlook.

Psephologist-turned-political activist Yogendra Yadav too says its vast reach on social media allows the BJP to exploit the situation to its advantage. 바카라�The Balakot strike is being used to change the narrative in an unprecedented way.  The 1971 war was followed by the 1972 elections, but it wasn바카라�t crude like now. Kargil was followed by the 1999 elections but not like this. What we are witnessing is nothing short of a hijacking of a national general election,바카라� says Yadav.

Congress leaders admit that they need to recalibrate their alliances and take a fresh look at things. 바카라�The Opposition will have to revise its strategies to match the BJP바카라�s changing goalposts. There바카라�s a consolidation of parties,바카라� says senior Congr­ess leader Tom Vadakkan. The immediate strategic objective, of course, will be to deflect public conversations back to the Modi government바카라�s 바카라�failure바카라� in the socio­-economic sphere. 바카라�Our election campaign will be on unemployment, the farmer crisis, Rafale, inflation, black money and other pressing iss­ues,바카라� says Vadakkan.

If that바카라�s going to be difficult, trying to clean up the mess on the coalition-making front is no less daunting. 바카라�Opposition unity바카라� seemed a fragile idea after talks between Congress and Aam Admi Party floundered again, thanks to the former바카라�s uncompromising stand on seat-sharing.  With AAP already announcing six candidates out of the seven Lok Sabha seats in the state, even hopes of a last-minute thaw seemed to evaporate.

But even as the BJP basks in the euphoria after the airstrike, Congress leaders are at pains to point out that this isn바카라�t the first time India has seen military success, that the country fought two of its most successful wars바카라�in 1965 and 1971바카라�under Congress governments. 바카라�Amit Shah says 바카라�this is a new India and not the old India바카라�. He forgets that India has fought four wars before. We even div­ided Pakistan to get a new country in 1971. But Indira Gandhi never used it for political benefits,바카라� says party spokesperson Shama Moha­med.

Some analysts also cast doubt on whet­her electoral gains necessarily follow a military success, and cite voting patterns after the Kargil conflict in 1999 and the 2016 surgical strikes. The two-month-long Kargil war was fought under the BJP-led Vajpayee government, followed by Lok Sabha elections in October.  While the BJP did return to power, its seat share remained the same as in 1998.  Analysts also say the surgical strike of 2016 didn바카라�t benefit the BJP much in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand.

Though war clouds are dissipating on the western front, the enthusiasm in the BJP camp is palpable in rallies led by Modi. With its new catchphrase, 바카라�Modi Hai Toh Mumkin Hai바카라� (It바카라�s possible with Modi at the helm), the saffron party is going all out to project the PM바카라�s decisive leadership. And the shift in the political narrative is helping it consolidate its alliance too. Despite playing hardball with the BJP, its oldest allies바카라�Shiv Sena and Akali Dal바카라�have mellowed after the strike. The shift was especially striking in the case of the Shiv Sena, which had been attacking Modi and the BJP over the last few months. The parties sealed ties with the BJP in Maharashtra and Punjab respectively after the Pulwama terror strike. Though BJP had to bend backward to accommodate the demands of its allies, including Ram Vilas Paswan바카라�s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in Bihar, the post-Pulwama scenario has changed the equation in a favourable way for them.

Also, small parties in pol­itically crucial Uttar Pra­d­esh, like the Apna Dal and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which had rebelled earlier, seem to have got behind the BJP. Apna Dal, which holds two Lok Sabha seats in UP, had earlier accused the BJP of not taking care of its allies. However, Apna Dal (S) chief Ashish Singh Patel says he is hopeful of the central leadership conceding to their dem­ands. 바카라�Our meeting with party president Amit Shah was positive and our iss­ues will be sorted out soon,바카라� says Patel.

And in Tamil Nadu, the alliance with the AIADMK and PMK has given much-needed heft to the BJP.  After sealing the alliance, Modi addressed two meetings in Tamil Nadu to exhibit the new-found bonhomie with the AIADMK leadership. The Abhinandan angle has come in handy to counter the narrative of BJP바카라�s image as an anti-Tamil party.

Next door, in the two states formed after the division of Andhra Pradesh, the Tela­ngana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Jagan­mohan Reddy바카라�s YSRCP can potentially turn the tide in an evolving political scenario.  But will Balakot resonate in the Deccan? 바카라�It will have no bearing on the Andhra voter,바카라� feels senior YSRCP leader Ambati Rambabu. People are angry with Modi for going back on his promise to grant 바카라�special status바카라� to Andhra Pradesh, he says. A final word on their inclinations can be only said post-poll, though.

Forced onto the backfoot, Opposition parties are struggling not only in their attempt to bring economic issues back into focus to counter the BJP narrative. They are floundering in their bid to find a viable way to deny BJP the glory and halo of a 바카라�heroic바카라� cross-LoC strike. For, any question they raise invites charges of politicisation. 바카라�The BJP government is committed to national security and protecting citizens against terrorism. It바카라�s unfortunate anyone can even doubt the decision to give a free hand to the army and air force. It바카라�s condemnable,바카라� says BJP leader Nalin Kohli.

Worn down by mutual distrust in their alliance-making and bereft of the rhet­orical advantage, the Opposition faces an unenviable task바카라�only a united front can even try to meet the challenge. 바카라�At the mom­ent, grand alliance is an idea, not a reality. A proper grand alliance is the need of the hour. More than that, the Oppos­ition has to devise a new narr­ative,바카라� says Yadav. One sign of consolidation emerged last week as the CPI(M) extended the olive branch to the Con­gress in West Bengal. Too little...?

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• The NDA바카라�s war cry for the 2019 general elections has been sounded: nationalism and nati­onal security

• Opposition parties are forced on the backfoot after the BJP targeted them for 바카라�politicising바카라� the Balakot airstrike

By Preetha Nair with inputs from G.S.  Shekhar in Chennai and M.S. Shanker in Hyderabad