Karnataka Mutiny: Can Congress-JD(S) Govt Survive After Resignation Of 14 MLAs?

The cracks that Karnataka바카라�s Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition tried to paper over for the past year are widening fast and dramatically, pushing the H.D. Kumaraswamy-led government to the brink. Days after 14 legislators sent in their resignation letters, the future of the Cong­ress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition is no clearer at the time of going to press, but a full-blown crisis is certainly at hand. Things will likely to come to a head this week바카라�the Karnataka ­assembly convenes on July 12 and Speaker K.R. Ramesh Kumar will meet some of the legislators to decide on their resignations.

In Karnataka, there is a weary sense of deja vu바카라�a decade ago, when state elections last threw up a hung assembly, it was a BJP government which had struggled with rebel MLAs who were shunted to resorts far away from Bangalore. It바카라�s a repeat of those scenes now바카라�many Congress and JD(S) MLAs are holding out from a Mumbai hotel where they have been holed up since the crisis began. There are no signs of a thaw yet.

The Congress offered to ­recast the cabinet to accommodate some of the rebels and asked all its ministers to step down; it threatened to invoke the ­anti-defection law against some MLAs; and it dispatched senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad to Bangalore and Karnataka Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar to Mumbai to salvage the situation. Shivakumar, a troubleshooter for the party, couldn바카라�t get into the hotel as the rebels not only refused to meet him but also called for police protection.

Scene Kya Hai?

• A Floor Test
  Karnataka바카라�s assembly convenes Friday. It will take up the finance bill this July session, which will practically be a floor test for the JD(S)-Congress government. But things could change before that; like the governor can ask the CM to take a vote of confidence.

• CM Resigns?
  If the Congress-JD(S) coalition isn바카라�t able to woo back its legislators, CM Kumaraswamy might resign without facing a floor test바카라�a situation similar to what BJP바카라�s B.S. Yeddyurappa faced in May 2018 when he resigned as CM.

• The Maths
  BJP emerges single-largest party in 2018 assembly polls but falls short of a simple majority바카라�a party needs 113 MLAs in the 224-member House. BJP바카라�s tally is 105, currently. The Congress-JD(S) coalition has 117, plus a BSP MLA. Resignations can reduce the majority mark to 106, giving BJP its best shot. Two Independent MLAs back BJP.

***

The BJP is demanding Kumara­swamy바카라�s resignation, arguing that he has lost the majority. 바카라�If the Speaker ­accepts the resignations without delay, there won바카라�t be any question of holding an ­assembly session,바카라� BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa told reporters on July 10. 바카라�They have no moral right to continue. Their strength has reduced to 103 MLAs, but the BJP has 107-108. That is why I have requested the governor to ask the Speaker to take necessary action immediately.바카라�

The Congress, however, is blaming the BJP for the ongoing imbroglio, accusing it of horse-trading in a bid to topple the government. 바카라�The BJP didn바카라�t get a mandate in the state elections. But they have been relentlessly trying to destabilise the Karnataka government,바카라� claimed Congress leader Siddaramaiah. The BJP바카라�s top leaders have countered the allegation saying the coalition was crumbling on its own. The Karnataka crisis echoed in Parliament too as Congress MPs staged protests.

Here is a quick recap of the flurry of events: Anand Singh, Congress legislator from Bellary, set the ball rolling on July 1 by sending his resignation to the Speaker. Chief minister Kuma­raswamy was in the US on a private trip and due to return by the end of the week. Things started unravelling on July 6 when a motley group of legislators바카라�nine from Congress and three from JD(S)바카라� trooped into the secretariat to put in their papers, taking everybody by surprise. Immediately, some of them went to Raj Bhavan to apprise the governor of the developments. Kumara­swamy was back by the evening of July 7, but by then, most of the rebel MLAs were in Mumbai. On July 9, Congress legislator R. Roshan Baig, who had been suspended last month after he blamed Congress Karnataka-in-charge K.C. Venugopal and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president Dinesh Gundu Rao for the party바카라�s poor show in the Lok Sabha elections, added his resignation to the list, taking the number of MLAs who quit to 14.

So far, the Speaker has ruled that only five of the resignations were in order and has given these legislators appointments for hearings on July 12 and 15. The others, he said, could send fresh letters in the correct format. 바카라�I have to make a conscious decision. Every step I take will become history, so I can바카라�t commit a mistake,바카라� he told reporters. The coalition government바카라�s fate clearly hinges on these proceedings.

It바카라�s no secret that the BJP has been smarting since it emerged as the single-largest party in the 2018 Karnataka assembly elections but still fell short of a simple majority. The BJP바카라�s tally is currently 105. The simple majority mark in Karnataka바카라�s 224-member ­assembly is 113. The Congress-JD(S) coalition has 117 legislators (including a lone BSP MLA). The resignations, if accepted, can reduce the majority mark to 106, giving the BJP its best shot at forming the government. Two Independent MLAs have been swaying to and fro바카라�they initially supported the Kumaraswamy government, then switched sides, but again swung back to be sworn in as ministers as recently as June. Now, they are backing the BJP.

But the fragility of Karnataka바카라�s coalition set-up wasn바카라�t lost on anyone, more so after the BJP바카라�s formidable sweep in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. Their parties reduced to one apiece out of 28 Lok Sabha seats, Congress and JD(S) leaders pointed fingers at each other for the poll ­debacle. Kumara­swamy, himself facing flak for being ­inaccessible, revived his 바카라�village-stay바카라� programmes in a bid to change tack and seemingly start afresh.

But even while several coalition leaders were privately critical of their parties, only a handful of MLAs바카라�such as Gokak legislator Ramesh Jarkiholi who has been rebellious for most of the past year바카라�appeared to hold out any serious threat to the coalition government.

However, the situation changed drastically over the past few days. Suddenly, some unlikely names had turned rebel바카라�chiefly Ramalinga Reddy, a former home minister and a ­seven-time Congress legislator from Bangalore; and A.H. Vishwanath, who till recently was the JD(S) state president. While Reddy felt sidelined ­because he was overlooked for a ministerial berth ­despite his seniority, Vishwanath바카라�s U-turn struck many as abrupt바카라�a former Congressman, he had fallen out with Siddaramaiah and joined the JD(S) in 2017. Just last week, he was with party supremo H.D. Deve Gowda to hand over charge and invest the party바카라�s new office bearers. But on July 6, he was leading Congress rebels out of Raj Bhavan. Curiously, amongst them was a group of MLAs from Bangalore who were self-professed followers of his bete noire Siddaramaiah.

The pacy turn of events puts Sidda­ramaiah in a spot: MLAs S.T. Soma­shekhar, B.A. Basavaraj and Munirathna, who were seen as his loyalists, are amongst those who resigned. 바카라�From Day 1, there was a lot of griping and grumbling by several Congressmen, including a couple of top leaders,바카라� says senior Congress leader B.K. Chan­drashekar. 바카라�Making such unbecoming pronouncements rather than displaying patience and propriety, as repeatedly advised by the high command, provoked a public opinion hostile to the Congress.바카라� Even after the Lok Sabha defeat, there has been no effort within the Karnataka unit towards honest ­introspection and accountability, he declares. 바카라�Instead, a handful of state leaders dissolved the KPCC committee of around 300 office bearers, quite a few of whom were secretaries with 10-15 years of service in the party.바카라�

The Congress and JD(S) rebels, however, claimed they didn바카라�t intend to leave the party and that they were only ­resigning as legislators, blaming the coalition government바카라�s neglect of issues they had been raising. 바카라�Some of them have grievances, some are talking about ministry expansion,바카라� K.C. Venugopal told reporters on July 8. 바카라�Congress ministers have resigned from their ­positions. They entrusted the party to take necessary decisions regarding ­reshuffling and settling of issues in the present scenario.바카라� The JD(S) too, as reports suggested, made similar moves to woo back its three legislators. The offers, however, seemed to have come a tad too late, observers pointed out.

By mid-week, the scenario had taken a turn for the worse: on July 10, the secretariat in Bangalore was abuzz with the prospect of more Congress MLAs turning up to tender resignations. The question is: will the rebels give in? The Kumaraswamy government needs to pass its finance bill, which, observers say, will be the key event now to test the government바카라�s strength. Events are ­unfolding at such a frenetic pace that by the time this report reaches our readers, new scenarios may have emerged. The only thing certain is that Karnataka바카라�s shaky politics is heading for a tremendous showdown.

By Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore