It's Do-Or-Die Battle For Congress In Upcoming Assembly Elections

The Indian National Congress was born four years before Nehru was born. A life history that long바카라�edging close to 135 years, almost double of independent India바카라�s바카라�is bound to have been studded with mom­ents of grave existential doubt. And yet, each inflection point, to the surprise of believer and critic alike, has yielded a second life. At least till now. A set of five assembly elections may seem a trifling affair when seen against this grand canvas of death and rebirth. But the script is thinning out. The party has just 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha, a still-untested president is at the helm, and there바카라�s a rampaging BJP to contend with. Its ruling motto바카라�to eradicate the Congress, like it was some pre-modern disease바카라�always looks close to fruition these days. Way before the epic showdown of summer 2019, therefore, the semi-final of 2018 may signal a kind of sudden death.

No signs of survival panic are visible, however, anywhere on the precincts of 24, Akbar Road. The Congress headquarters, ensconced in the heart of Lutyens바카라� Delhi, is buzzing with act­ivity. The manicured lawns are overrun by ticket-seekers from the poll-bound states, and sundry hangers-on. Senior leaders seated in the inner chambers insist they haven바카라�t seen such enthusiasm among party workers in a long time. The optimism is welling up from the ground, they say바카라�a sense that the party바카라�s fortunes are on an upswing.

Some of the confidence is also emanating from a small portacabin, almost hidden in a corner of the sprawling premises바카라�the data analytics people. Headed by former inv­estment banker Praveen Chakravarty, the small team is abuzz, happily studying the live data flashing on its screens. This is Project Shakti, which aims to link each and every booth-level worker to Congress president Rahul Gandhi. One screen updates the list of ground-level workers as they enrol바카라�with each new recruit, the name and phone number pop up. (Each one receives a pre-recorded welcome call from RaGa.) The total number on one side is ticking busily: the frequency is about 5-10 new names a minute. The other screen maps all booths in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh바카라�in shades of red, purple and blue to signify where the party needs to work more and where it is relatively comfortably placed.

This live data offers, in an inverse way, a statement on the deep anti-incumbency built over three long terms in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh against chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. But amassing a new army and winning a battle are two different things. It바카라�s for the Congress leadership to leverage this relative asc­endancy, and it바카라�s the last chance to do so before the big one in 2019. A win in the three heartland states바카라�where the party is directly pitted against the BJP바카라�will deliver invaluable benefits. The Congress will then be poised to bargain with potential allies from a position of strength, and make a play for the sweepstakes. A loss would be crushing.

Despite the ostensible skew in advantage, or perhaps bec­ause of it, the winter elections are definitely more crucial for the Congress than for the BJP. If the party fails to create a counter-wave despite the anti-incumbency in these three states바카라�built on factors like agrarian distress, unemployment, anger among the youth and Dalits against the BJP바카라�it will find it difficult to motivate its cadres for the Big Battle next year. It will also further damage Rahul바카라�s credentials to lead an anti-Narendra Modi front, something the Congress has been carefully calibrating.  

As of now, a prospective Rahul leadership doesn바카라�t seem to inspire much confidence in potential allies like the BSP and the SP, who have refused to do business with him in these assembly polls. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP, a Congress ally in Maharashtra, too has decided to go solo, contesting 200 seats in Madhya Pradesh. Congress ideologues insist this only signifies the political capriciousness of Mayawati, not Rahul바카라�s degree of acceptability. Still, the chessboard is in too much flux.

Madhya Pradesh in-charge Kamal Nath tried his best to forge an alliance with the BSP, but found its demands unr­easonable바카라�it wanted 50 out of 231 seats, a high ratio in what바카라�s touted as a 바카라�two-party바카라� state. Some of these 50 seats were not even in her stronghold and ceding them would have helped the BJP instead, says a Congress leader. BSP leader Sudhindra Bhadoria rubbishes this. 바카라�Last election, Congress contested 100 seats in UP. How many did it win? How can they question our winnability?바카라� he asks, saying it바카라�s the feudal mindset of certain leaders that바카라�s defeating att­empts to form a secular force.

After seat-sharing talks reached a dead-end, Mayawati too came down heavily on the Congress, terming it as 바카라�casteist and arrogant바카라�. Even SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, gentler in his words, said the Congress had made them wait too long, and urged the grand old party to show magnanimity. Political commentator Neerja Chowdhury believes all this is posturing and position-taking for a better bargain in 2019바카라�otherwise unjustified by the BSP바카라�s dipping voteshare in Madhya Pradesh (it dropped from 8.97 per cent in 2008 to 6.29 per cent in 2013). 바카라�She is trying to send a message that you heed me or else I am capable of walking out. The stakes are going to be much higher in Lok Sabha.바카라�

Even the Congress is trying for a better leverage vis-a-vis 2019: its decision to go solo is seen as part of that attempt. In the event of a victory or two in these states, the Congress clearly doesn바카라�t want the BSP or other allies to eat away at its potential electoral base. 바카라�Being a pan-India party, Congress can take a pole position in an anti-­BJP alliance,바카라� says a Congress leader.

Congressmen also believe Rahul has turned a corner and is ready to take on the formidable Modi-Shah combine. 바카라�The fact that he is taking on the PM directly is evidence enough. He has started directing his attack personally at him, calling him 바카라�chor-chowkidar바카라� and 바카라�bhrasht바카라� (corrupt) in the context of Rafale. This strategy is to chip away at Modi바카라�s personal image that has largely remained unaffected since 2014, and to build a perception of a pro-rich, anti-­poor government,바카라� reveals a Congress leader. The constant fusillade may be beginning to find some resonance. 바카라�People may not know Rafale, but they know who Ambani is. There are a few things people connect바카라�Ambani, Adani, chor-chowkidar, suit-boot ki sarkar바카라�and that바카라�s beg­inning to stick on the PM. You will see Rahul persisting with this narrative,바카라� the leader adds.

How much of this will translate into votes? The Congress under Rahul is known to fritter away its advantage by not having a cogent plan and perspective. The BJP under a wily Shah is capable of pulling out a rabbit from the hat at the last minute, as was seen in the post-DeMo assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh.

Among the three states, the Congress ­appears comfortably placed in Rajasthan, cashing in on the growing unpopularity and perceived arrogance of chief minister Vasundhararaje Scindia. The youthful Sachin Pilot, given charge of the state in 2014, and general secretary Ashok Gehlot appear to have closed ranks and working ­together바카라�although caste antagonisms may still play a dodgy role on the ground. (Pilot is a Gujjar, a caste embroiled in competitive quota politics.)

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, however, the Congress has not exactly driven home the anti-incumbency advantage. In MP, this is so despite the Chouhan government being plagued by multiple crises바카라�farm distress, dominant and middle caste anger, Vyapam, large-scale unemployment. 바카라�The state unit is definitely more energised, but the chemistry between Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath is still not working out,바카라� concedes a party leader.

And in Chhattisgarh, where Raman Singh has failed to control Maoism, the Congress is hobbled by a lack of state leadership. In Telangana, its alliance with the TDP and the Left may not suffice to take on the TRS, which has tended to incline towards the BJP. Though less key than the heartland states, a successive defeat for the Congress in Telangana would confirm the party바카라�s fast-vanishing footprint from a former bastion바카라�and a state it created.

Congress leaders also admit they have given up hope of retaining Mizoram, its last bastion in the Northeast. It has already lost Meghalaya, Manipur, Assam, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh since 2014, and BJP/RSS workers are leaving no stone unturned in their bid to colour the whole region saffron. 바카라�They have resources we can바카라�t match at present,바카라� concedes a regional Congress leader.

The Alliance Factor

Going solo comes with its own downers too. Political analyst Dr Rajiv Gupta, former professor, Rajasthan University, says the Congress is in a winning position, but the lack of an alliance will affect its margin of victory. 바카라�The party stands to lose 5-10 seats by not going with the BSP and SP. A post-poll alliance is possible, but there바카라�s also a third front emerging. If the SP, BSP and Left come together, they can get up to 30 seats in places like Shekhawati, Hanumangarh and Ganganagar. Even if they get 15 seats, it바카라�s an effective position,바카라� he adds. The ratio of seats lost unnecessarily may be worse in Madhya Pradesh, he says바카라�the BSP has a good footprint in the state, with a 15 per cent Dalit population. In a bipolar contest, an alliance could have given the crucial incremental vote push to the Congress.

Jyotiraditya, for one, is confident the Congress will form next government in Madhya Pradesh even without an alliance. He tells Outlook that support for the Congress runs deep in the state. 바카라�Sometimes a partnership fructifies, sometimes it doesn바카라�t. It was our effort to make sure it works with the BSP, but it didn바카라�t. It doesn바카라�t mean it won바카라�t work in the Lok Sabha polls. We will try and ensure it works,바카라� adds Scindia.

Other Congress leaders too harbour hopes of a mahagathbandhan for 2019. They choose to play down Mayawati바카라�s criticism and, instead, highlight her remarks on Rahul and Sonia Gandhi as 바카라�honest politicians바카라� as a positive sign. 바카라�We바카라�ve had an alliance with SP and BSP in the past. These statements are part of political rhetoric. When it comes to the nuts and bolts of an alliance, I don바카라�t think it matters,바카라� says senior leader Manish Tewari.

With Rahul reiterating the importance of state-specific alliances, the Congress is making a clear distinction between state and national elections, citing their different dynamics. 바카라�The mahagathbandhan is a concept drafted by journalists. As far as Congress and other opposition parties are concerned, we will have a state-wise alliance depending on the strength, resilience and seat conversion of each party,바카라� says Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala. Still, there is a question about the degree to which the Congress has adj­usted to coalition politics바카라�its capacity to view alliances in strategic terms rather than as compulsions. 바카라�We are very new to the business of alliances on this scale. It will be a while before people internalise the whole process,바카라� admits Congress leader Salman Khurshid.

Then there is the question of leadership and charisma. Modi still remains BJP바카라�s X factor and still has it in him to tide over anti-incumbency. A Congress veteran concedes grudgingly: 바카라�You give a rally with one lakh people to RG (Rahul Gandhi), he will pour cold water over it with an ­insipid, non-inspiring speech. You give 10,000 people to Modi; and he sets them on fire with his oratory.바카라� That gap still stares at the grand old party, and this winter will bring news of where it stands.

By Bhavna Vij-Aurora and Preetha Nair