Modi-Yogi Bhakts Aplenty, But Jobs?

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Poll 2017

324 ⁄ 403

• OBCs, nearly 40 per cent of UP's population, rallied ­behind BJP

• BJP바카라�s middle class support was intact, making room for policies targeting rural voters

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In 2014, the BJP drove into Uttar Pradesh, riding on two wheels바카라�one was the promise of development, and the other was assertion of Hindutva. Four years on, amidst widespread chatter about early and combined national and state polls, Hindutva continues to hold voters in thrall, but the wheel of development is coming unstuck. This is apparent from travels through Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar, two districts in the western part of the electorally vital state where voter sentiment is verging on disenchantment. This is especially true of the various 바카라�backward바카라� communities whom the BJP had stitched together as a 바카라�non-Yadav바카라� electoral grouping in the run-up to the previous general election.

The road to Lucknow is said to run through western UP, which set the tone for BJP victories in the 2014 polls, leading to the formation of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre, as well as the 2016 assembly polls, which made Yogi Adityanath the CM. The NDA바카라�s score of 73 of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP and an equally impressive assembly win owed much to this primarily agrarian belt, which has only a smattering of industry and a powerful trading community. In these parts, sections of the OBCs and many Dalits had joined the BJP바카라�s dominant-caste votebank, decisively tilting the scales. Now, these allian­ces are facing the test of promises fulfilled or broken, though it is still hard to tell which of the two바카라�Hindutva or development바카라�will win the race.

The people in this region address their hopes and concerns directly to 바카라�Modi-Yogi바카라�, a marker of their perceived personal connect with voters바카라�in fact, not just did the PM campaign here, but the people also expect him to solve problems that the state government is supposed to handle. 바카라�We are with Modi-Yogi, but some work should get done,바카라� says Urmila, who lives in Manoharpur, a village within Saharanpur city, while Sheela adds, 바카라�Modi came, but we did not benefit. Taxes are higher and the ban on sand-mining squeezed our income.바카라� Urmila and Sheela belong to the Saini community, one of the state바카라�s numerous 바카라�non-Yadav backward바카라� groups that the BJP actively wooed in 2014.

About an hour바카라�s drive from Manoharpur, in Kutba Mazra, Sushil, a farm labourer from the Kumhar caste (traditionally potters), complains that his monthly 바카라�Samajwadi pension바카라� of Rs 500, started by Akhilesh Yadav바카라�s government, has stopped. 바카라�Even as people are going all 바카라�Modi-Yogi바카라�, we got nothing,바카라� says Sudesh Prajapati, Sushil바카라�s neighbour, whose husband sells momos for a living. 바카라�Modi said he will remove poverty, that women will be trained to roll agarbattis at home, but nothing happened. He, too, is helping only the rich.바카라�

Sudesh describes her family as 바카라�Modi bhakts바카라� who believe a government building roads and toilets바카라�plus a Ram Temple in Ayodhya바카라�will earn worldwide acclaim. 바카라�We may have voted for pooja-path (the road of worship), but even ghee and earthen lamps cost money,바카라� Sushil says.

Saharanpur바카라�s rich and poor have been promised different sets of gains, so to speak. While farmers, workers and others lower down the social hierarchy aspire for prosperity, 바카라�self-­respect바카라� and 바카라�national pride바카라� oil the wheels of the urban middle class, professionals and rich farmers with enough clout to set mainstream narratives. 바카라�People are in no mood for change,바카라� says Deepak Maheswari, a well-off farmer in Mohanpur Gada, 20 km from Mazra. 바카라�They believe the coffers were empty when BJP took charge, but once they fill up again, they hope to get something.바카라�

Meanwhile, the latest bumper crop of sugarcane has raised a spectre of unpaid dues by sugar mills. The anger of dominant Rajput and Jat farmers looms on the horizon, while Muslims are increasingly hemmed in by an expanding communal discourse. And, while many Dalits had supported the BJP in 2014, the state바카라�s crackdown on them in Shabbirpur last year has fuelled resentment and rage against the ruling party. The Dalits of Shabbirpur accuse the Thakurs of burning over 50 of their homes in what was widely called 바카라�Dalit-Rajput clashes바카라�.

바카라�At least Modi as head of government is not corrupt and Yogi has wiped out crime,바카라� says Premchand Sharma, an advocate in Saharanpur city who supports the BJP. 바카라�There is something different about Modi바카라�that바카라�s why America is behind India. He is the only one who can solve the Palestine crisis.바카라� There are many like Sharma among the dominant-caste farmers, professionals and traders in Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar, who say they had exp­ected more 바카라�Hindutva바카라� and support demands for a 바카라�population-control policy바카라�, including a two-child norm, a uniform civil code and the revocation of reservation in jobs. 바카라�Cows are being slaughtered less, but the loudspeakers (of mosques) are yet to fall silent,바카라� says Vipin Sharma, a trader at Muzaffarnagar바카라�s Dal Mandi. 바카라�For the sake of the country, our vote will always be for the BJP.바카라�

바카라�It is because of Muslims that we vote for the BJP, so they can save Hindus from Muslims. If the Samajwadi Party wins, we feel more pressure from Muslims,바카라� says another trader, Ashutosh Singhal, who, however, wishes the BJP government would also scrap the policy of affirmative discrimination based on caste identity.

Despite these traders바카라� pro-BJP views, it was the Con­gress that won local elections in Muzaffarnagar for the second time in a row recently. 바카라�Modi showed us big dreams, but finished off the small customers,바카라� says Sanjay Sharma, a cloth trader in Muzaffarnagar. 바카라�They said they would provide jobs, but I don바카라�t have enough work to employ 10, so I have only five employees. Even dal is more expensive. So, next time, let it be a Congress government.바카라�

Meanwhile, the talk of ending reservation is pushing more Dalits to Mayawati바카라�s BSP, even as many Muslims, too, are considering that option. 바카라�We picked the PM, but when he talks about selling pakodas, we feel ashamed,바카라� says Arvind, a resident of the Ravidass Hostel in Saharanpur from where the Bhim Army led by Chandrashekhar Azad launched its campaign against caste-based atrocities and Thakur/Rajput domination last May. Chandrashekhar is currently being held in Saharanpur jail under the National Security Act (NSA), which was slapped after the Allahabad High Court granted him bail in November 2017 on finding all charges against him and his associates to be 바카라�politically motivated바카라�.

바카라�The biggest success of Modi and the BJP was in pulling all Hindus into its camp. Yet we are targeted during our celebrations,바카라� says Arvind, who did not want to be identified. The embers of Shabbirpur, it seems, are yet to die. In Mohanpur Gada in Saharanpur, the recent Padmaavat protests by Rajputs in neighbouring villages were a nightmare for both Pasmanda Muslims and Jatavs. 바카라�The Rajputs don바카라�t even let us sit next to them. With the Muslims, on the other hand, we are safe and happy,바카라� says Ram Singh, a daily wage worker and a Chamar (traditionally leather workers) by caste. 바카라�Let Mayawati come to power. She has promised a lot and will fulfil them.바카라�

There is indeed a strong anti-BJP sentiment among the Dalits in Shabbirpur. Pushpendra, a young Jatav, was attracted to the BJP in 2011 when it took young boys to hoist the national flag at Srinagar바카라�s Lal Chowk, but was stopped at Pathankot. 바카라�The talk was of revoking Article 370 (of the Indian Constitution). We had also heard about Gujarat바카라�s deve­lopment. In the next elections, though, we will bring in the Congress,바카라� he says. Across the region, the older Dalits remain supporters of Mayawati and are ready to wait 바카라�indefinitely바카라� for her return to power. 바카라�After the Muzaffarnagar riots, people gave Modi and the BJP a chance, but when we had to run for our lives in our own village, we changed our minds,바카라� says Sudesh (not Prajapati), whose brother, former Shabbirpur pradhan Shiv Kumar, is in jail with Chandrashekhar.

In contrast, the Thakurs of Shabbirpur are mostly supporters of the Yogi government. 바카라�They (Dalits) tried to take out another yatra on January 29, but we didn바카라�t let them,바카라� says Ankit, a Rajput resident of Ambehta Chand, close to Shabbirpur. 바카라�Ab toh hamaari hi niklegi yatra, Rana Pratap ki, April-May mein (The next procession here will be ours바카라�to commemorate Rana Pratap).바카라� Three of Ankit바카라�s 바카라�Rajput brothers바카라� are among those arrested last May. 바카라�Yogi is a Rajput and yet he got Rajputs arrested,바카라� says Ankit, looking angry. That바카라�s not the defining sentiment among his caste fellows. As Surender, a sugarcane farmer, puts it: 바카라�Everything may not be fine with this government, but we have never voted for anybody else.바카라�

The 900-plus police encounters since Yogi became CM have established the government바카라�s reputation as a 바카라�crime fighter바카라�, a big plus in the BJP바카라�s larger kitty. 바카라�What we don바카라�t understand is why reservation is not being done away with. A majority in the Rajya Sabha will perhaps make a big difference,바카라� says Rajkumar, a Rajput and pradhan of Sona Arjunpur.

On reservation, the BJP may have other plans. A quota within the OBC quota to address lack of employment opportunities for the relatively worse-off OBC groups is in the works. This would consolidate support for 바카라�Modi-Yogi바카라� among the rural poor, though possibly at the cost of some urban support. According to a Samajwadi Party leader, they plan to 바카라�conditionally바카라� support this plan바카라�as long as the quotas are proportional to the population of each group within the OBC category and a creamy layer is clearly identified. Among the Gujjars, who are numerically strong in Saharanpur, Modi바카라�s reputation is intact, though he generates less enthusiasm now. 바카라�The government promised to double farm incomes, but it hasn바카라�t happened. Otherwise we are SP supporters,바카라� says Tejpal, an elderly Gujjar farmer.

And then there is the steady closure of mining, ­construction, paper and metal-and-wood works ­industries, which has created a permanent ­discontent against every political party. But who turns the resent­ment into votes is what much of politics is all about. Even when the Rashtriya Lok Dal was at its lowest ebb, for instance, the Jats ­continued to vote for it. That바카라�s what they are ­expected to do for other parties, too, inc­luding the BJP. In this region, the Hindutva narrative has captured the ­imagination not just of the Jats (where in the villages a murmur or two of discontent can be heard), but also of several other OBCs, such as the Pals. Adesh Kumar, a policeman of the Pal caste from Bagra village in Muzaffarnagar, says his grouse is border skirmishes with Pakistan. 바카라�All-out war would be best, perhaps,바카라� he says.

Similarly, in Sandhawali, despite grave concerns over the lack of development, the people are happiest about the crackdown on cow slaughter. 바카라�It바카라�s good for the country that the Qureishis can바카라�t slaughter cows anymore,바카라� says Mayank Singh Pal, who has been trying to find work. Jai Singh Kashyap, a vegetable seller, says GST, demonetisation and factory closures have affected the young, but rates the Ayodhya temple as an equally important issue. 바카라�It was Akhilesh Yadav who created conditions for factory closures,바카라� says Bhagat, another resident.

There is some discomfort around that the Opposition has to mine for votes바카라�provided they can find enough muscle to hit the trenches. After the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013, the Jats went into the BJP fold, where the Gujjars cannot follow. The Congress can stitch together such disparate groups, but needs to be part of an alliance. If the Opposition join forces바카라�which they have, in secret, and are thrashing out Lok Sabha seats바카라�they stand to gain, provided the Hindu-Muslim chasm doesn바카라�t open the trapdoor under their feet.

By Pragya Singh in Western UP