Playing With Fire: Citizenship Bill Could Hurt BJP's 2019 Prospects In Northeast

The defining moment of the campaign for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Assam, many agree, came at a rally addressed by then prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. After May 16, he thundered, all Bangladeshis will be sent back 바카라�bag and baggage바카라�. May 16 was the day when votes were counted and Modi바카라�s BJP began its march into Assam, winning seven of the state바카라�s 14 parliamentary seats. Exactly two years to the month, the BJP overran the Congress바카라�s 15-year-old citadel in Assam, storming to power in the state for the first time. Throughout the weeks-long campaign, the BJP바카라�s trump card, again, was the promise to deport all 바카라�illegal Bangladeshis바카라�, the biggest and most divisive of all issues in Assam for decades.

Now fast forward to January 4, 2019. At a similar rally in Silchar, in the heart of Bengali-majority Barak Valley, Modi ann­o­unced his government바카라�s resolve to go ahead with amendments to the Citi­zenship Act of 1955, paving the way for granting citizenship to non-Muslim migrants from three neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh (See graphic). The Assamese-speaking natives in Brahma­putra Valley erupted in anger at what is being seen as a 바카라�great betrayal바카라� by the BJP. By the time the Union cabinet approved the bill바카라�and the Lok Sabha passed it subsequently바카라�the anger spilled on to the streets, in the form of protests and a daylong shutdown across the Northeast supported by more than 70 organisations.  At least six protesters were wounded in Tripura in police firing.

Illegal migration has been a hot-button in multi-ethnic Northeast, more so in Assam where at least 855 people were killed during a six-year agitation in the early 1980s against Bangladeshi influx. The protests had sparked violence along communal and linguistic lines, including the Nellie massacre of 1983 when more than 2,000 Muslims were butchered in a cluster of sleepy hamlets in central Assam. The killers were never identified but bel­ieved to be nearby villagers, paranoid about losing their home and hearth to 바카라�Bangladeshis바카라�, a word used to describe anyone suspected to be a foreigner.

For most Assamese-speaking people, the fear 바카라�Bangladeshis바카라� run deep; it바카라�s a primal fear of losing their cultural and linguistic identity and being turned into a 바카라�minority community바카라� in their own land due to the untrammeled influx from Bangladesh, both Hindus and Muslims. It바카라�s a fear often seen in the context of Tripura, a tiny state bordering Ban­gladesh, where the indigenous population has been pushed to the political, economic and social margins. For the Assamese, even for a section of hardcore BJP supporters, the religious angle to the citizenship bill defeats all that the Modi government had promised.

바카라�How can religion define who is an illegal migrant and who is not? This religious sel­ection strikes at the very root of the secular characteristics of our Constitution,바카라� says Meera Barthakur, a former BJP spokesperson who was expelled from the party last month for speaking out against the government바카라�s move. 바카라�The party바카라�s constitution says the nation comes first, party second and the individual third. For us, Assam is our nation and if our nation is in crisis, everything is gone,바카라� she tells Outlook. Another to quit the BJP in Assam is Mehdi Alam Bora, a former spokesperson, who resigned immediately after the bill was passed in the Lok Sabha.

The political backlash for the BJP is significant. Within hours of the Lok Sabha바카라�s nod, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) broke off its alliance with the BJP and walked out of the government. Though the government led by chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal is safe, the AGP walkout signals possible realignment of political forces in Assam. In Meghalaya, chief minister Conrad Sangma of the National People바카라�s Party (NPP) has hinted as much. The BJP, with just two seats, is in the ruling alliance of this hill state. In Tripura too, the Indigenous People바카라�s Front of Tripura (IPFT), an ally of the ruling BJP in the state, has opposed the bill. In Mizoram, chief minister Zoramthanga said his party, the Mizo National Front, is against the bill.

The Northeast is crucial in the BJP바카라�s national scheme ahead of the general elections. Party sources say it is keen on winning as many of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the region to make up for possible shortfalls in high-stakes states in the Hindi heartland where the party is said to have slipped recently. The BJP was hoping that the bill will help consolidate Hindu votes in the Brahmaputra Valley, like it had managed in the 2016 assembly polls. Barak Valley바카라�s support to the bill gives hope of a windfall in the Lok Sabha polls. A news report quoting an unnamed home ministry official said the Centre decided to go ahead with the bill after Assam minister Himanta Biswa Sarma gave a 바카라�personal guarantee바카라� of containing the protests. The report quoted the official as describing the move as a 바카라�self-goal바카라� by the BJP in the Northeast, where it had managed to unseat the Congress in every state. Sarma, the region바카라�s key BJP leader, appeared to have stoked the fire when he said Assam will be overrun by 바카라�Jinnahs바카라� without the bill, referring to the founder of Pakistan to describe Muslims.

Aman Wadud, a Guwahati-based lawyer-activist, says the bill has been des­i­gned to target the minority community, especially in the context of the National Register of Citizens, which is being updated to determine Indian citizens. 바카라�Although the NRC is being monitored by the Supreme Court, it is being executed by the BJP-led government바카라�Now, the BJP will try everything to drop more genuine Indian Muslim citizens from the NRC to appease the majority,바카라� he says. Organisations, representing Bengali-speaking people, support the bill. 바카라�We are thankful to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for keeping his words...Some sections are trying to mislead the people that lakhs of Hindu Bengalis will be brought here,바카라� says Sudip Sharma Choudhury of Citizens Rights Protection Forum, an umbrella group.

The Centre attempted to douse the fire바카라�and Union home minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament about a decision to grant scheduled tribe status to six communities in Assam. But it did little to mollify the people. 바카라�We welcome the move to grant ST status. But it doesn바카라�t mean we will not oppose the bill. These are two separate things. If the BJP is thinking that they will be able to divert the agitation, they are wrong,바카라� says Hitesh Barman, president of the All Koch Rajbongshi Students바카라� Union.

Amid the maelstrom, one man바카라�s silence has stood out바카라�chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Once hailed as the 바카라�jatiya nayak바카라� (national hero), Sonowal has faced stringent criticism for allegedly selling out the state he had vowed to protect. A 70-year-old woman, who joined thousands of others at a protest in Dibrugarh, minced no words. 바카라�We don바카라�t need such a CM,바카라� she shouted in Assamese. 바카라�What is the point of having him when he cannot protect our language, culture...our identity?바카라� Sono­wal바카라�s silence hangs heavy. As does dark clouds of uncertainty over a state sitting on a time-bomb with a short fuse. And the fuse is lit.

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Citizenship By Religion

Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016

• It allows non-Muslim 바카라�persecuted minorities바카라� from Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan바카라�Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians바카라�who entered India before December 31, 2014, to become Indian citizens. This nullifies the cut-off of March 24, 1971, as agreed in the Assam Accord of 1985. The bill allows illegal immigrants from these religions to apply for Indian citizenship within six years of entering India instead of the current 11 years.

The CA bill vs NRC

• Though unrelated, the bill could pave the way for elimination of Muslims from the National Register of Citizens (NRC), currently updated under the Supreme Court바카라�s supervision. At least 4 million applicants, most of them Bengali-speaking Muslims and Hindus, were excluded from the final NRC draft last year. The bill goes against the Constitution바카라�s Article 14 that guarantees the right to equality. The bill seeks to give citizenship on the basis of religion.

Assam바카라�s grouse

• The state has a long history of protests against illegal Bangladeshi settlers. A six-year anti-foreigner movement ended with the Assam Accord in 1985. The immigrant issue continues to fester. Now, with the NDA pushing for the CA bill, groups campaigning against illegal immigrants are again in a flux. They say citizenship cannot be determined by religion. The Assamese-speaking natives fear that their language and culture will be wiped out by the influx of Bengali-speakers from Bangladesh, including Hindus.

Official defence

• Assam minister Himanta Biswa Sarma says the state needs Hindus to counterbalance the Muslim population spurt. He called Muslims 바카라�Jinnahs바카라�. Union home minister Rajnath Singh told Parliament that the 바카라�burden바카라� of the immigrant-citizens will be shared by all states.

Support for bill

• Most in Barak Valley, constituting three Bengali-dominated districts, favour the bill. The people see it as a shield against the 바카라�biased바카라� NRC update.

By Abdul Gani in Guwahati