The Politics Around Waqf In UP And The Muslim Vote Bank

Political parties in Uttar Pradesh바카라”regarded as the hotbed of politics바카라”are closely watching the developments after the passage of the Waqf Bill. The politics of UP has always revolved around the Muslim factor바카라”parties have either stood up to their cause or have taken up a stand in their favour based on their individual ideologies. There have been numerous instances in the past wherein parties have rallied around Muslims to garner their support electorally. 

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections is the most recent example. Samajwadi Party, the main opposition party, won 37 seats, emerging as the third-largest party. The gain gave much-needed political fillip to SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav. With the increased numerical strength, the party was in a position to bargain and it also helped in strengthening the position of the Opposition alliance. All this became possible only because the Muslims voted for the SP in large numbers.

The Waqf Bill may force political parties to revise their strategies, unlike the position they adopted after the Ayodhya and triple talaq verdicts. The Muslim community바카라™s reaction after the Ayodhya verdict was quite measured because the issue dragged on for several decades and the new generation wasn바카라™t bothered about the outcome. Since the judgement was delivered by the apex court, the community adjusted, and even reconciled, to the factual position. 

However, in the case of the Waqf Bill, the situation is a bit different as the community feels the judgement and government바카라™s stand impact them directly. It바카라™s not like the triple talaq case, where the Opposition parties can abstain from voting. In fact, by voting against the Waqf Bill, the Opposition parties in the Hindi heartland have made their stand very clear.  

The BJP's Stand

The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is comfortably placed. It is fanning out across the state citing advantages of the Waqf Act. The rivals are left in a piquant position. They must reach out to the Muslim community while very cautiously maintaining that other groups do not get affected. 

Taking a closer look at the opposition parties in UP, they have already registered their differences with the Waqf Act. How far they will succeed in convincing the community remains to be seen. One thing is sure. For these parties, the path is very tricky and they have to tread carefully. In politics, you may not be able to keep all people happy all the time but the opposition parties in UP will have to appeal to all sections of society. 

Will Samajwadi Party Capitalise on Waqf for Votes?

The main contender, the Samajwadi Party바카라”the favoured party of the Muslim vote bank in UP바카라”has high stakes. It got 33.59 per cent votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, second only to the ruling BJP. Muslims voted in masses for the SP. They now have the herculean task of maintaining this vote bank. However, this comes with the rider that more affiliation may result in shifting of other voters. Akhilesh Yadav has devised a new strategy of PDA바카라”Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak바카라”and has successfully implemented it in the elections. 

For them, the 2027 Assembly elections are crucial as the party workers have already coined the slogan 2027 ke sattadheesh (the ruler of 2027) in favour of their ruler. The party has, so far, been able to balance the Muslim factor with its stand on contentious issues, but the heat is now turning on the party.

Going by the circumstances, it will be difficult for SP to come out and protest but convincing the community that it stands for their cause is important. Showing political acumen, Akhilesh is trying to shift the focus to PDA, championing their cause and raising issues of backwards, dalits and other marginalised sections. 

It is clear to them that any amount of vote bank will not be sufficient unless it is coupled with Muslim votes. The difference is huge as the results of the 2024 elections show바카라”the BJP got 41.37 per cent, while the SP got 33.59 per cent, with a difference of 7.78 per cent vote share. The vote bank of SP has reached its maximum since the formation of the party in 1992 and no other major chunk of voters are floating to scale it. Thus, the only option left for them is to reduce the BJP vote share바카라”that is loyal and sticks to its ideology. Amid this, raising any issue which resonates adversely with the society and appears favouring one section will not be fruitful for the party. 

Will Waqf Issue Revive BSP in UP?

Coming to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), many political stalwarts have written off the party given its shrinking vote share. In 2024, the party stood at 9.39 per cent vote share with zero seats. Yet, every move of the party, and its supremo Mayawati, is analysed in detail. Internal shifting of postholders, shuffling of Akash Anand, senior leaders being shown the door and new arrangements being made바카라”everything is being watched closely. 

The BSP has nothing to lose having lost in places where it had its core voters. The vote share is dwindling, and the party needs Muslim voters to bail through. But that would mean scaling the SP mountain. The only constant in politics is change. The BSP understands this and any misstep will alienate the Muslim voters. 

Mayawati has clearly stated the views of her party on social media. She has categorically said that in case the Waqf Act is misused, her party will fully support the Muslims. The party believes the Bill was hurriedly pushed through without addressing the apprehensions of the Muslim community.  

The BSP understands that as of now, there is no evident group that can align with the party바카라™s vote bank and help it regain the past glory of the party. Muslims can, however, be approached. The party is now openly expressing its views and telling the Muslim community that it should not get carried away by any aggressive misleading campaign. The party is in a Catch-22 situation바카라”it has to keep the Dalit core vote bank intact, bring back the drifted voters to its fold and make a convincing approach towards Muslims. The Waqf Bill has given it a chance to grab the opportunity and take advantage of the situation when other political parties are failing. 

The Congress's Conundrum on Waqf

The Congress is in a tricky position. Though it won six Lok Sabha seats in 2024 with 9.46 per cent vote share, it was in alliance with the SP with Muslims voting for their candidates. The party has changed its UPCC president thrice since 2022. UP is just not clicking for them despite Priyanka Gandhi and then Rahul Gandhi giving ample time and importance to the state. Since 1989, the state has remained elusive to Congress. 

In UP, parties with a strong voter base support are thriving but not Congress. In UP Assembly, it has only two members, but even a smaller outfit like Jansatta Dal of Raghuraj Pratap Singh has two members. As of now, none of the pocket can be called a Congress bastion. There may be areas which are individual strongholds but there is no guarantee that anybody with a Congress stamp can win from there. 

This is an opportunity for them. The Waqf Act has given them a chance to clear their stand in UP. It is important for the party as their visibility is reduced in the state. Buzz is created only when their leaders visit Lucknow or elsewhere in UP. Reaching out to the community is the only option left for them. It is also important because Muslims align with the SP, and because of the Congress-SP bonhomie, they have to maintain their status. The party needs to go the extra mile and go beyond the cosmetic effort to win over the community which has eluded it, barring a few sprinkles in the elections. Congress바카라™ stand may be clear on the issue, but in politics, actions should be visible and this is where the party lacks. 

Will AIMIM Turn Sympathy to Votes?

The Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), headed by Asaduddin Owaisi, has earned a place among UP Muslims. But while they sympathise with the leader, they do not vote for the party. The logic is, single- handedly, they cannot win. The Waqf Act has given a good platform to Owaisi for raising the issues of Muslims. 

The other opposition parties are not averse to Owaisi바카라™s political foray but are very apprehensive about the straight forward questions raised by the Hyderabad MP regarding Muslims. It is a matter of hammering at a single place repeatedly which may yield results. Political insiders claim that AIMIM has reached such a state where major opposition parties in UP do not want its candidates in their constituencies. The next step is now inevitable, adjust to AIMIM. 

For Owaisi, the field is set바카라”the Waqf Act has given him another chance to now reach the ground. They should raise issues, put the opposition parties in a tight spot and try to position their party in such a way that it is no more a political pariah and opposition parties are keen to open up for an alliance.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

(Views expressed are personal)