War, oddly enough, sometimes begets peace. At a time when apprehensions of war바카라indeed, exhortations to war바카라fill the air, it바카라s time to reflect on an earlier turn of the wheel. The last real opening for a solution in Kashmir had come in the first decade of the century, close on the heels of the Kargil war, with one pivot being the hitherto war-mongering general, Pervez Musharraf. During a period that straddled the Vajpayee and the Manmohan Singh years, India and Pakistan had crafted a détente바카라an admittedly difficult and fragile peace but one where, despite moments of grave provocation, radical and innovative solutions to the Kashmir tangle came close to wresting a consensus. Even a hardliner like L.K. Advani could hold talks with the Hurriyat in 2003. At this point in 2019, that time seems far away. With the Lok Sabha elections two months away, the Pulwama terror attack바카라the biggest in the Valley since independence바카라is threatening to overshadow all other issues in a cloud of belligerence that바카라s producing a lot of heat, but no light.
What Can Be The Lasting Cure For Festering Wound Called Kashmir?
The conflagration of the present must not lock us into myopic anger. What we must seek is an enduring solution.
The decade since 2008 has been like a sheer cliff for Kashmir: the Amarnath land row, the 2010 summer protests, the Afzal Guru hanging in 2013, Burhan Wani in 2016바카라each inflection point created a lower ebb, to the point that the nightmare of the early 바카라90s seems to be upon us again. But through each of those crisis points, there was a track that New Delhi allowed to wither away. The only time anything resonated in Kashmir was when the Centre tried to talk, genuinely talk바카라and listen. It was a revelation that, even through the veils of mistrust, Kashmiris had responded. Even more of a stark surprise that the Centre never really followed up on what seemed like the only good chance.
The first time, it was like a dam had burst. The all-party delegation of 2010바카라led by P. Chidambaram, and including Sitaram Yechury, Arun Jaitley, Ram Vilas Paswan and others바카라had created a buzz across all sectors of opinion in Kashmir, with even separatist leaders opening up. But with New Delhi almost dreading any real movement or commitment, the law of diminishing returns soon caught up. A formal (if more lightweight) group of interlocutors led by Dileep Padgaonkar held sustained talks, but their 2011 report became a catalogue of good intentions never acted upon. A citizens바카라 initiative led by Yashwant Sinha struggled against hardening opinions in both Kashmir and New Delhi. By the time it came to the 2016 all-party delegation led by Union home minister Rajnath Singh, separatist doors slammed shut on Indian faces became the photo-op. And the 2017 바카라initiative바카라, with former IB head Dineshwar Sharma named as special representative, was as good as dead on arrival.
Anger is the overpowering emotion at present; sabre-rattling and demands for revenge fill the air. And Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known for adopting a tough stance on Pakistan-sponsored terror, especially with the post-Uri surgical strikes in 2016 under his belt. But it바카라s a set of tricky options for him. This is election year, and not seen to be doing anything to 바카라make Pakistan pay바카라 is not something the government can afford. Government sources duly talk of a 바카라befitting response being planned바카라, perhaps to be unleashed closer to elections for maximum gains. But going for a strike is not a problem-free option. Pakistan has promised retaliation, and a protracted, bloody conflict cannot always be managed to one바카라s advantage. But all that, finally, is for the short term. What of the medium and long term?
While the government mulls its dire options in a heavily polarised atmosphere, questions are being raised about its muscular policy in Kashmir. Strategic experts and intelligence officers claim the Modi government바카라s 바카라Operation All Out바카라, launched in 2017 to flush out terrorists from the Valley, combined with its political policies, have destabilised the state, making it easier for Pakistan to exploit the situation. A.S. Dulat, former special director of Intelligence Bureau (IB) and former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), feels all-out aggression has only backfired. Dulat, who served as advisor on Kashmir in A.B. Vajpayee바카라s PMO, cites the trend of local boys joining the terror ranks. 바카라It was generally Pakistanis who came in and indulged in acts of terror. Our own boys willing to become suicide bombers is new. The government must keep this in mind as it plans a response,바카라 Dulat tells Outlook. A solution will not flow from the muzzle of a gun, insists the former spy, who has also authored the book Kashmir: The Vajpayee Years. 바카라Ultimately you have to talk to the people. Even the Irish settlement was done through negotiations. There바카라s no other way,바카라 says Dulat.
The political sphere too was filled with snafus, as far Dulat is concerned바카라especially the ill-fated PDP-BJP alliance that never worked on ground. 바카라Going into the alliance, the late Mufti Mohammed Syed overestimated himself and underestimated Modi. The state바카라s expectations were not met by the Centre. The state, for example, expected money for flood relief that never came. When the PM visited Kashmir, Mufti saab asked him to talk to Pakistan but was publicly snubbed. It only added to the disgruntlement.바카라 Mehbooba Mufti tried to continue the alliance but differences stalked the ties, especially in the wake of young Hizbul commander Burhan Wani바카라s killing in July 2016. The BJP finally pulled out of the uneasy alliance in June last year. Ham-handed attempts to form a new government바카라both by the BJP, with Sajjad Lone, and by a PDP-NC-Congress combine바카라formed a sorry post-script, on which the curtains were brought down by Governor Satya Pal Malik dissolving the assembly.
Counter-terrorism expert Ajai Sahni says the instability and mass anger provided fertile ground for Pakistan to radicalise the locals. Lamenting the lack of a credible elected government in the state, he also expresses misgivings about the administrative acumen of Governor Malik, who is 바카라just a politician furthering the BJP바카라s agenda바카라. And the agenda, according to him, is 바카라polarisation of the atmosphere for Hindu votes by raising the issue of Articles 370 and 35A.바카라 Sahni says conflict assessment must not be led by ideology but by ground reality. 바카라The government바카라s Kashmir policy has been led purely by ideological imperatives while being totally blind to reality. In 2012, the fatalities in Kashmir had come down to 99. It was again up to 456 in 2018. The government is part of the problem,바카라 he says. Sahni is not against the use of power to quell terrorism바카라바카라Left Wing Extremism too was controlled by using force. The security agencies should go hammer and tongs at terrorists but through focused operations.바카라
Former home secretary G.K. Pillai believes it바카라s imperative that a new leadership emerges in Kashmir at the grassroots. 바카라Parties like the PDP, NC and even Congress have had a stranglehold over state politics for 60-70 years. The BJP is relatively a new entrant. The parties have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo,바카라 he says.
Highlighting the problems of the local population in villages, he says the people have to go to either Srinagar or to Delhi to get the smallest of their problems resolved. Power must be decentralised from Srinagar by holding regular elections to local bodies and panchayats, he says. 바카라In any counter-insurgency operation, the key aim is to win the hearts and minds of people. The average Kashmiri is looking for safety, security and self-respect,바카라 he says.
Winning hearts and minds seems a long shot, however, with Kashmiris in other parts of the country being targeted and many students, professionals and traders forced to go back. Former army chief Gen V.P Malik tweeted 바카라 바카라Hurting or harassing innocent Kashmiris anywhere in India is counter-productive. Our duty is to take care of them like all other Indians.바카라 Gen Malik, who led the army to a victory in the Kargil war, also offered this advice: 바카라Some suggestions for Governor J&K. Conduct UHQ (Unified Headquarters) meetings regularly to ensure better co-ordination & effectiveness. Separate regular meetings with politicians, NGOs, Teachers, Business leaders & local professionals. Robust civil military activities in South Kashmir. Spend more time in Srinagar.바카라
While speculation is rife that the J&K governor may be replaced, another governor appointed by the Modi government decided to jump into the picture. Meghalaya Governor Tathagata Roy, who describes himself as a 바카라right-wing Hindu socio-political thinker, writer, ideologue바카라 on his Twitter handle, advocates near-isolation of the state바카라s people. He tweeted, 바카라An appeal from a retired colonel of the Indian Army: Don바카라t visit Kashmir, don바카라t go to Amarnath for the next 2 years. Don바카라t buy articles from Kashmir emporia or Kashmiri tradesman who come every winter. Boycott everything Kashmiri. I am inclined to agree.바카라
His tweet evoked strong reactions from Kashmir politicians, including Omar Abdullah, who responded: 바카라These are the bigots driving Kashmir over the abyss. While you are at it, Tathagata, why don바카라t you stop using our rivers to generate your electricity as well?바카라 He added, 바카라People like Tathagata want Kashmir but without Kashmiris. They바카라d sooner see us driven into the sea. He바카라ll be best placed to know he can바카라t have one without the other so what바카라s it to be?바카라 PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti demanded his sacking. 바카라Deplorable statement바카라GoI must sack him immediately,바카라 she said, or else it would mean 바카라he has their tacit approval바카라 and it바카라s 바카라an election ploy to polarise the situation바카라. Mehbooba is not the only one who believes the government intends to keep the Kashmir pot boiling for electoral gains. Nor has anybody in the government or the BJP come out to condemn Roy바카라s statement.
BJP vice-president and J&K in-charge Avinash Rai Khanna denies the charge of polarisation or an exclusively aggressive policy, citing efforts towards ensuring development and prosperity. 바카라There are so many ways to win hearts and minds,바카라 he says. Even the coalition government was formed with the best intentions, says Khanna. Closely involved with the PDP-BJP 바카라Agenda of Alliance바카라, he tells Outlook that they saw it as a chance to bring normalcy. 바카라Modi went there over a dozen times. No other PM has visited the state so often,바카라 he says. He also cites the sanctioning of a Rs 80,000 crore development package and of two state-of-the-art AIIMS hospitals, one each for Jammu and Kashmir, and the (seemingly paradoxical) fact that 바카라over 3,000 Kashmiri youths applied for jobs in the Indian army바카라.
He defends the BJP raising Articles 370 and 35A. It is not meant to polarise, he insists, but to remove regional and gender discrimination바카라women lose their right to property if they marry outside. At present, people from outside the state cannot come and buy land to set up factories. 바카라Unless that happens, how can employment be generated for local youths? The railway project provided so many jobs. The state needs more factories and development,바카라 Khanna says. He is also in favour of holding regular local body elections. Since the 73rd and 74th Amendments are not implemented in J&K, the state government is not bound to delegate funds for local elections like other states. 바카라The political families of Kashmir do not want to delegate power. They don바카라t want a solution바카라it is in their interest to let it fester,바카라 he claims.
BJP leaders admit they do want to project the party as strong and uncompromising, but that it also has to be seen as reaching out to the people of Kashmir with empathy. 바카라We have realised the people of Kashmir do not have a problem with the BJP but only with the muscle-flexing. The effort is to balance Modi바카라s muscularity with Vajpayee바카라s insaniyat philosophy,바카라 says a senior BJP leader. Knowing the present dispensation and its exigencies, expect something unexpected.