Brahmaputra바카라�s Undertow

Curious things happen in politics바카라�stranger than leaders switching sides to embrace ideologically opposite parties. But Golaghat constituency in Assam presents a picture bordering on the bizarre. MLA Ajanta Neog is the BJP candidate for the seat and she is up against a familiar foe, Bitopan Saikia of the Congress. That is not the story. In 2016, Neog was the Congress candidate and Saikia was with the BJP. Neog joined the BJP recently and was named the Golaghat candidate. A miffed Saikia found a new home in the Congress. Golaghat is a sub-plot in the unfolding theatre in Assam바카라�Elections 2021. But it gives an idea about the political churning: the ruling BJP is luring 바카라�winnable바카라� leaders while opposition parties are hedging their bet on 바카라�discards바카라�. Even that is not the entire story. Five years after winning Assam바카라�a traditional Congress stronghold바카라�for the first time, the BJP is facing a bigger challenge than it would admit. The Congress-led alliance of eight parties, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), actually fancies its chances of wresting power on May 2, when votes will be counted. Elections to the 126-member assembly will be held in three phases바카라�March 27 and April 1 and 6.

Minister and master strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma바카라�whom many consider to be the power behind the throne of chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal바카라�has cited a single possibility for the BJP-led alliance of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United Peoples Party Liberal (UPPL): 100+ seats. Sarma바카라�s calculations have rarely gone wrong, even when he was a Congress minister till before the 2016 assembly polls. It바카라�s not for nothing that the BJP바카라�s central leadership has reposed its faith in Sarma. Even if it means dumping the Bodo People바카라�s Front (BPF) ahead of the polls to find a new ally in the UPPL, another party with a Bodo base.

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But the possibility of 100-plus seats is not the real story. The BJP has set the cat among the pigeons by refusing to implicitly name Sonowal as its candidate for the top post. 바카라�There is no need to name a CM candidate because we already have a CM. In 2016, we were fighting to win the state for the first time,바카라� says party spokesperson Ritu Baran Sarma. The statement raises more questions than answers. And one of the questions leads directly to minister Sarma. On several occasions in the past, he had asserted that he would not contest the polls. Yet, when the first list was announced, the 52-year-old was named as the BJP candidate for Jalukbari, a constituency straddling large areas of Guwahati. Sarma바카라�s ambition to lead the state is well-known and is said to be a major factor in his leaving the Congress when former chief minister, the late Tarun Gogoi, started projecting his MP-son Gaurav as his successor. This, plus the now-famous episode involving Congress leader Rahul Gandhi바카라�s pet dog Pidi.

This is not supposed to be a dog-eat-dog story, but politics has its own funny way of throwing up the unexpected. Even Sarma becoming the CM is not exactly the highlight. After all, most of his die-hard followers see nothing wrong. And even more people across Assam believe that he is the real deal, almost single-handedly taking on the Opposition and dismantling their arguments and bastions. Not to forget the fact that he managed to divert an overwhelming anti-BJP narrative in Assam after the Citizenship (Amendment) Act was enacted, sparking widespread protests and violence across Assam in early 2020. 바카라�This election is about what we have done for the state. CAA is done and dusted. The people have seen through the machinations of some people who whipped up passions over the law. It바카라�s not an issue anymore,바카라� Ritu Baran says.

Political analyst Mrinal Talukdar agrees. He believes that more than half of the 9.6 million people who are beneficiaries of various schemes will definitely vote for the BJP-led alliance. Assam has around 23 million voters. 바카라�Now add 10 per cent of the non-beneficiaries who will vote for the BJP anyway바카라�Then there is the usual religious polarisation, social engineering and money and manpower for the BJP. I see a bipolar election where the BJP has a strong chance,바카라� he says.

The Congress will certainly disagree. 바카라�What development?바카라� Congress parliamentarian Gaurav Gogoi asks. 바카라�BJP workers are taking cuts from beneficiaries of the much-touted Orunodoi scheme바카라�ask the people how they are being conned,바카라� alleges Gogoi, who has been campaigning for party candidates across Assam. Under the scheme, the state government transfers Rs 830 a month to bank accounts of 2.2 million families with widows and physically-challenged members. The government recently announced the amount will be increased to Rs 3,000.

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Unlike the BJP, the Congress and other opposition parties believe that CAA is still an emotive issue and it will hurt the ruling alliance. 바카라�Most people of Assam see CAA as a betrayal of the BJP바카라�s promise to protect jaati, maati, bheti (ethnicity, land and home). The people gave the BJP a chance and it blew it,바카라� Gogoi says.

But winning the election is not the main plot in the Congress story. First, it will have to convince voters about its alliance with the AIUDF of perfume baron Badaruddin Ajmal, whom Sarma has described as an 바카라�enemy of Assam바카라�. To rub it in, the BJP has dubbed the polls a 바카라�clash of civilisations바카라�, with Sonowal claiming that 바카라�the attack of Mughals바카라� is continuing. A BJP leader said 바카라�Mughal바카라� is meant to denote a mindset, not individuals. There are many, mostly from the Assam­ese-speaking populace, who see Ajmal as a benefactor of 바카라�illegal migrants바카라�. The fear of Bangladeshis overrunning the state remains as potent as it was decades ago.

The BJP is steering clear of this issue after exploiting the primal fear to the fullest, with then PM candidiate Narendra Modi declaring at a rally in 2014 that 바카라�all Bangladeshis will have leave bag and baggage바카라� after the BJP is voted to power at the Centre. It was a promise repeated ahead of the 2016 assembly polls. This time, there is no mention of Bangladeshis, or CAA, or NRC (the national register of citizens). BJP leaders are highlighting these issues in Bengal, though.

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It바카라�s this anger against CAA that the two new parties, Raijor Dal floated by jailed farmers바카라� leader Akhil Gogoi and the Asom Jatiya Parishad of former AASU leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi, are trying to exploit. Though they have an understanding, both parties are fielding candidates against each other in 바카라�friendly contests바카라�. Akhil is in the fray too, having filed his nomination for the Sivasagar seat. Even the Congress and AIUDF will face-off in five seats.

No one is happier than the BJP, with so many parties in the contest. 바카라�They will cut their own votes. It바카라�s good for us,바카라� says a senior BJP leader. But a recent opinion poll called a close contest between the BJP and Congress. But stranger things have happened before. And thereby hangs a tale.

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By Anupam Bordoloi in Guwahati