The Seventh Seal

The ancients, across cultures, thought seven denoted perfection. Modern psychologists called it 바카라�the magical number바카라�. There are seven colours, seven swaras, seven rishis. But in recent Indian political history, the number hasn바카라�t been all that auspicious. The UPA바카라�s stars were in the ascendant till that year of its reign. And now, as the Narendra Modi epoch completes its own seventh, as the regime surveys the darkened landscape all around, and as the pandemic-hit people of India gaze back at it through ash and smoke, we seem to be in the vicinity of a similar cusp. Not that the government saw it coming바카라�perhaps it wasn바카라�t even looking. On March 7, Union health minister Harsh Vardhan declared victory over Covid-19, saying: 바카라�We are in the endgame of the pandemic.바카라� He was taking a cue from the narrative the Prime Minister himself had woven. Other arms of the government duly played choristers. 바카라�Atmanirbhar바카라� India, in this telling, was saving the world. Everyone bought into that till, less than a month later, the equation was summarily inverted by a tsunami-like second wave. The story of the previous seven years, its highs and lows, its shock and awe, are well known. But here was shock and awe바카라�and unquantifiable grief바카라�on an altogether different scale. Can this be a prism to read the Modi regime바카라�s full tenure? Perhaps, perhaps not. Can this be a crystal ball? Again, answer indeterminate.

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But there바카라�s one thing beyond doubt. The Modi regime바카라�s actual performance graph may be a theme of polarising debates, but there was universal consensus on his cap­acity to manage perceptions바카라�even create them on a mass-hypnotic scale. The summer of 2021 won바카라�t be kind to that felicity. Not with lakhs of urban and rural Indians gasping for oxygen, hopelessly seeking hospital beds, putting out desperate pleas on social media for life-saving drugs, and bodies piling up at crematoriums and washing up on river banks. Not with the world media peeling off layers of politeness to report the story as it is. The government scrambled to make amends바카라�but it was all too little, too late.

Acutely aware that the narrative is spinning out of control, the BJP has cranked up its publicity machinery by several more notches. In-house articles praising Modi are being amplified by senior leaders and ministers. BJP IT Cell head Amit Malviya bemoaned that only deaths were being reported, not recoveries. Party president J.P.Nadda wrote an open letter to Congress president Sonia Gandhi, accusing her party of creating 바카라�false panic바카라�. And the RSS is seeking to lighten the gloom with a 바카라�Positivity Unlimited바카라� programme. One imperative in all this is the crucial UP elections early next year. But if you keep that aside, there바카라�s discernible discontent even within the ranks. 바카라�If things don바카라�t improve, the BJP may just lose control over UP. Yogi (Adityanath) is no Modi, who still holds some sway over people바카라�s imagination,바카라� warns a senior BJP leader from UP.

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Not many, in fact, even agree with the idea that Modi continues to exude an unbeatable charm. 바카라�Ever since 2014, we succeeded in managing perceptions, nobody really asked the tough questions. What happened to 바카라�Make in India바카라�? Where are the Smart Cities? Where is Digital India? The pandemic has laid bare our decrepit healthcare infrastructure, and also the brittleness of other structures바카라�like the education system, with the future of millions of students shrouded in uncertainty,바카라� says an irate BJP leader, who himself was infected with the coronavirus, along with most of his family. One problem, analysts say, is the overdependence on the PM바카라�casting him as the 바카라�saviour바카라� for all seasons. 바카라�Can you imagine the education minister cannot even take a call on postponing the CBSE exams? Even for that the PM has to step in,바카라� the leader adds.

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Seshadri Chari, former editor of Organiser, says Modi has done well in many fields but has not been able to build a good team in seven years. 바카라�What comes across is a one-man army. While real merit is not finding a place in his team, those who are there don바카라�t have the freedom to make decisions. As PM, you have to repose trust in your people,바카라� he tells Outlook. Chari feels many ministries, including finance, have not seen worthy incumbents. 바카라�Any intelligent Opposition party would have taken advantage of these lacunae,바카라� he says. The over-reliance on one person, creating a 바카라�macho image바카라� for him, also comes in the way of consensus-building바카라�a method that would have been useful during the pandemic. 바카라�Our political class sees consensus-building and reaching out to the Opposition as a sign of weakness. This is a flawed way of thinking and not unique to the Modi-led BJP,바카라� he adds. He cites the example of Rajiv Gandhi. 바카라�Those were the days when BJP had only two MPs in the Lok Sabha, one being L.K. Advani. Once when Advaniji got up to offer some suggestion in the House, Rajiv Gandhi retorted바카라�바카라�Hum kis ki baat sunenge, jinke do sadasya hai?바카라� (shall we listen to a two-seat party?),바카라� Chari explains.

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But the RSS veteran feels Modi still does not have a viable alternative, and that gives him a chance for course correction, something the UPA did not have. When the UPA바카라�s decline started in 2011 with the anti-corruption movement, it never got a chance to recover: the BJP was waiting as a worthy competitor. The reverse doesn바카라�t hold true now, says Chari. Thus, by 2024, he believes the BJP can recover the ground it may have lost in 2021. 바카라�But the question is, does the top man have the mindset to do a course correction? That entails putting together a better team with the freedom to take decisions, and reaching out to the opposition,바카라� he says.

Most leaders feel that may be a long shot for someone like Modi. But it바카라�s an unprecedented situation for him. The Covid disaster, twinned with the loss in West Bengal, has caused much damage to Brand Modi. Former Rajya Sabha MP Pavan Varma says the fabled Modi invincibility has been broken, even if not completely shattered. 바카라�That he can do no wrong, that he will have popular support come what may, with minimum or no electoral consequences, is now under question. There is immense pent-up anger,바카라� he tells Outlook. Whether this will translate into a terminal decline depends on the nature of the Opposition. 바카라�An organised, pan-India Opposition is needed to harness this resentment, to take it to the next level of electoral competence. An Opposition with a real face, a common minimum programme and a coherent ideology is needed to forge a strategic narrative against the government. Photo-ops where Opposition leaders gather are overrated metaphors,바카라� adds Varma, who has also been advisor to Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar.

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He has a word of caution for the Opposition. 바카라�In a democracy, one should never underestimate the potential of the government. Three years is a long time for it to change the narrative in its favour. It바카라�s also sufficient time for the Opposition parties to reorganise themselves바카라�then 2024 could be an interesting battle,바카라� he says. Bengal demonstrated the limits of the BJP바카라�s strategy of polarisation for him, but he feels the element of Hindutva바카라�which he prefers to call 바카라�the Hindu satya바카라�바카라�has now seeped into India바카라�s electoral soil.

It바카라�s not just polarisation that has started giving diminishing yields for the BJP. Many leaders cite the arrogance that a long tenure in office brings. Former Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha concedes some amount of 바카라�cockiness바카라� had crept into the UPA바카라�s second term too. 바카라�The Congress too came into its second term with more seats. Then came hubris and the feeling that nobody can dislodge me,바카라� he says. 바카라�But the BJP will definitely try and do something big before 2024. Like the Ram temple,바카라� says Jha, who was suspended from the Congress for his open criticism of the party. He바카라�s not sure if the Congress will be in a position to lead an Opposition charge, but believes the party will continue to be a force. 바카라�It바카라�s in head-to-head contests with the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. In terms of numerical representation, it바카라�s still the only party that can take on the BJP,바카라� he adds.

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Sharmistha Mukherjee, national spokesperson of the Congress, tells Outlook that the Covid second wave may well be the turning point. 바카라�It has come at a dear cost. Lakhs have died because of the government바카라�s mismanagement. It will leave a permanent scar on the psyche of the people,바카라� she says. She traces its roots to arrogance, more than complacency. 바카라�At such times, the country has to stand together. They should have reached out to the Opposition, engaged with experienced people like Manmohan Singh. Instead, they were busy with elections,바카라� Sharmistha adds.

Right-wing political analyst Anand Ranganathan agrees the government lost focus. 바카라�That too, much before the elections. And that had a domino effect. The states aped the Centre and soon everyone became lazy. There바카라�s no doubt that both sides messed up, abdicated their responsibilities and left it to the citizens to fend for themselves,바카라� he says. Ranganathan, a professor at JNU바카라�s Special Centre for Molecular Medicine, also lists a few critical failures on the science side. 바카라�We sequenced the Indian mutant back in October. That was the time to do contact tracing, isolate, nip it in the bud. We failed to do that. We ran out of funds to speed up genome sequencing,바카라� he says. Also, the government almost cussedly refused to see the signs. 바카라�Most nations experienced a bigger second wave. America faced a catastrophic oxygen scarcity in California in December-January. Couldn바카라�t our health and science task forces foresee a drastic upsurge in oxygen requirement in the second wave?바카라� he asks. Even on vaccination, Ranganathan says India was three months late. 바카라�Even now, we are vaccinating only one million a day, first dose. In the past four months, we바카라�ve touched our daily vaccination capacity of 6 million doses only once,바카라� he rues. 바카라�The government lost focus much before the assembly elections. In fact, they used the occasion to try and fortify themselves바카라�huge rallies, religious festivals. Who is responsible for the misery and deaths,바카라� he says, vocalising the question everyone wants an answer to. Where does the buck stop?

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