To Fix Jam, Call Gang

Gupkar Road in Srinagar, lined by residences of top politicians in Jammu and Kashmir, including former CMs Farooq ­Abdullah, Omar Abdullah and ­Mehbooba Mufti, is buzzing with activity after a long spell when it wore a forlorn look. The change follows an invitation for a dialogue with PM Narendra Modi in Delhi on June 24. Sources in the security establishment disclose that the PM will share a 바카라�tentative roadmap바카라� that is ready with the Centre. Although it is touted as the biggest outreach by the Centre to initiate a new political process in J&K, nobody is expecting any significant decisions to be made at the June 24 meeting, where the discussions are likely to revolve around Article 370, statehood and elections.

바카라�The final outcome has to be ­restoration of statehood, a promise that was made by the government in the Lok Sabha, and assembly elections,바카라� says a senior government ­official. 바카라�While it is difficult to give a time frame as restoration of statehood req­uires a constitutional amendment, it is likely to be the next step after completion of the ­delimitation ­exercise ­(redrawing of constituency boundaries). We are ­expecting a climbdown by Kashmiri politicians from their stated positions on Article 370. Its abrogation fulfilled an ideological promise made by the BJP in each of its successive manifestos.바카라� The Centre ­expects Kashmiri ­politicians to make peace with the loss of J&K바카라�s special constitutional status as fait accompli, and ­restrict their ­demands to early ­restoration of ­statehood and release of some ­prisoners, including a few of those in Delhi바카라�s Tihar jail. 바카라�We are ­willing to concede to reasonable ­demands as it is important for the Centre to win back the trust of Kashmiris. After all, they also want peace, which is crucial for development in the region,바카라� says a source inv­olved in preparations for the meeting.

On returning to power at the Centre with a bigger majority in 2019, one of the first things done by the Modi government was abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution that had granted J&K a modicum of formal ­autonomy within the Indian Union. Ladakh was hived off as a separate Union territory, and what remained of the erstwhile state became the Union territory of J&K directly administered by New Delhi. Among the large number of people from all walks of life detained to prevent massive demonstrations against the Centre바카라�s decisions on J&K were leaders of both the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)바카라�all of whom are seen as 바카라�pro-India바카라� in the Valley and accused of being 바카라�traitors바카라� by both the 바카라�pro-Pakistan바카라� and pro-independence바카라� camps in Kashmiri society.

These moves came five years after Modi had invited his then Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, to his first swearing-in as PM. During his first term, his party바카라�the BJP바카라�allied with the PDP to form a coalition government in J&K in 2015, and pulled out in 2018. Left without an elected government and assembly, the state was put under governor바카라�s rule. In August the following year, Parliament바카라�s decision to bifurcate J&K and bring its administration under the central government바카라�s direct control was announced in the midst of a ­communication blackout and mass ­detentions, with government forces flooding the streets of Kashmir.    

Just a couple of months ahead of the second anniversary of the erstwhile state바카라�s bifurcation and loss of statehood, 14 political leaders from Kashmir, including the Abdullahs of NC, Mehbooba of the PDP and Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress have been invited to meet Modi. Not long ago, ­especially during campaigns for the district development council polls in November-December last year, top BJP leaders such as Union home ­minister Amit Shah had derisively descri­bed the alliance floated by NC and PDP leaders along with smaller ­regional parties after their release from detention바카라�the People바카라�s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration바카라�as the 바카라�Gupkar gang바카라�. No wonder, sitting across the table with the PM is no easy proposition for Kashmiri politicians. Omar, for insta­nce, faced a tough time convincing the NC about the importance of engaging with New Delhi. Party colleagues ­reminded him of the arrest of ­hundreds of their members. 바카라�If the meeting is not about restoring Article 370 and the rights of J&K바카라�s people, then our participation makes no sense,바카라� says NC leader Ruhullah Mehdi. Mehbooba was wary of joining the meeting even after the Centre ­released her uncle Sartaj Madani from preventive detention. 바카라�How can you assume she would jump at the invitation?바카라� asks a PDP leader. 바카라�She didn바카라�t ask them to release her uncle or ­anything else. Her party was taken away from her by Delhi to weaken her. Why would she trust them so quickly?바카라�

Sources in the security establishment say the groundwork for the meeting has been going on for the past two months. When Union home secretary Ajay Kumar Bhalla formally called the 14 ­politicians on June 19, it was the culmination of two months of 바카라�secret diplomacy바카라� aimed at bringing the NC and the PDP on board. The Centre, which had earlier tried unsuccessfully to create an 바카라�alternative leadership바카라� in the Valley, had nobody else to turn to for providing a semblance of political normality. 바카라�The Centre바카라�s experiment with Apni Party, which came up in March 2020 under Altaf Bukhari, didn바카라�t work out,바카라� says a source in the BJP바카라�s central leadership. 바카라�In the past two months, as the backchannels reached out to the NC and the PDP, Bukhari became critical of the central government.바카라� Bukhari claims the 바카라�phone connection between Delhi and them (Abdullahs and Muftis) was never snapped.바카라�

Citing the ceasefire at the Line of Control since February 25, a strategic affairs expert on Kashmir, who does not want to be identified, says the Centre바카라�s actions are in line with the 바카라�parallel formula바카라� associated with the late Brajesh Mishra, who was NSA when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was PM. Mishra believed the Centre should continue talks with stakeholders in J&K while keeping the backchannels open with Pakistan. 바카라�Then Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf used to say that whatever is acceptable to Kashmiris would be acceptable to Pakistan. If the Centre can convince Kashmiris on Article 370 and start a democratic political process, it will ­become easier to get Pakistan on board,바카라� the expert says.

According to a senior NC leader, there has been constant engagement between New Delhi and Islamabad since August 2019. Pakistan바카라�s move for the DGMO-level talks too was a break from PM Imran Khan바카라�s previous stand that engagement with India was ­impossible without restoration of J&K바카라�s 바카라�autonomous바카라� status. 바카라�When Islamabad can engage with Delhi ­despite its rhetoric over abrogation of Article 370, why shouldn바카라�t we? That was the premise of going for the meeting with the PM,바카라� the NC leader says.

As for the central government, ­concerns about the security situation could be one of the factors motivating it to engage with Kashmiri politicians. According to security analysts, the 바카라�pressure cooker바카라� situation in Kashmir cannot be maintained for long and any event can spiral out of control, attracting the world바카라�s att­en­tion. 바카라�Restoration of statehood and ­assembly polls would give New Delhi a breather and ward off international ­attention from India바카라�s actions in J&K since August 5, 2019. It will then be in a better position to deal with the emerging crises along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh,바카라� says an analyst.

By Bhavna Vij-Aurora in Delhi and Naseer Ganai in Srinagar