The Humint Cost Of Coin

November saw 37 militants killed in Kashmir, 22 of them in the last 10 days of the month. This intensified counterinsurgency (COIN) response came in the wake of killings of 바카라�informers바카라� by militants. The latter had abducted civilians accused of passing information to the army about militant movements. At least two were killed바카라�one was showered with a volley of bullets, and another one had his throat cut. These killings were recorded, went viral on social media and sparked outrage in the Indian media, with many calling the second one an 바카라�ISIS-style execution바카라�.

This is not the first time visuals depicting violence have emerged from Kashmir. The army has circulated videos of houses burning, killings of militants and the roadside torture of civilians. The logic is the same for both the militants and the army: deterrence. Both groups are willingly broadcasting the repression바카라�defined here as a group바카라�s capacity to increase its opponents바카라� cost of collective action바카라�they subject their targets to, and which they deem necessary to threaten and weaken the forces working against their respective causes. The local population on whose behalf the militants claim they fight (and the resources this population controls) is, in Mao Zedong바카라�s words, a 바카라�sea바카라� through which militants must 바카라�swim like fish바카라�.

But this ecosystem is disrupted by defections in the population, which the COIN regime eff­ects through money, drugs, and blackmail to turn people who are later tasked with gathering intelligence. In Kashmir, this practice is also institutionalised through appointments in the police. At least eight special police officers were killed this year by militants, and nearly a dozen resigned publicly out of fear of meeting the same fate.

바카라�Human intelligence바카라� (HUMINT) is at the heart of COIN strategy, as it can provide valuable information that more technologically-oriented assets cannot. This HUMINT grid has been the central target of militant action this year, through abductions of policemen and their relatives, killings and other threats. The security forces have resorted to similar tactics. Destruction of property has become an important part of their standard operating procedure. IndiaSpend accessed official documents, and found that as many as 105 houses were des­troyed between 2015 and June 2018 in Pulwama district alone. Nocturnal raids, detention of family members of militant commanders, and torture바카라�besides regular killings of civilians바카라�are routine practices employed by the security apparatus, and do not signal a significant departure from past, particularly the 바카라�90s. However, this deterrence-through-repression plays out differently on each side.

Repression by the army has raised the costs of militant action astronomically, but has also facilitated its mobilisation. New recruits are driven to militancy because of overwhelming state violence바카라�though this is not the exclusive cause; in their last phone conversations with their militant sons, many parents encourage them to go down fighting. In the most recent conversation to go viral on social media, militant commander Umar Majeed Ganaie바카라�s mother exhorted him thus: 바카라�Do not let them touch you. Fight. I always wanted you to return home a martyr.바카라� This suggests unprecedented public support for the cause and idea of militancy. Since the militant organisations today lack in arms, and their members in training, the only resource that keeps the movement kicking is its people and their willingness to kill and be killed. In the past decade, the total number of militants active in Kashmir has ­remained almost constant despite hundreds being killed each year.

The army, on the other hand, better organised and trained, and adequately equipped, has not suffered proportional numerical damages바카라�but has lost the battle for control of the streets. November also witnessed a shift in the timing of encounters. Almost all encounters in the last 10 days started before dawn, and were declared over by morning. This is happening because the harsh weather conditions make nocturnal movement difficult, forcing militants to stay in place. The security forces attack before day breaks and the militants can move, and before civilians arrive to confront the forces. The latter is the second reason for this shift, because of the embarrassment security personnel have to face. Men and women, young and old, come out to rescue militants, and on occasion force security personnel to retreat.

The purpose of HUMINT, as the US counterinsurgency manual puts it, is to provide precise intelligence to help the counterinsurgents eliminate insurgents from the populace 바카라�like surgeons cutting out cancerous tissue while keeping other vital organs intact.바카라� In Kashmir, it seems, the Indian state is confronted by a body 바카라�diseased바카라� with 바카라�cancer바카라� in its entirety. At present, death seems to be the only cure the Indian state is off­ering, and people are not shying away from accepting it.

(The writer is a research scholar at Jamia Millia Islamia. The views expressed are personal.)