Now Is The Time For A Change In Policy

Since Russia바카라�s invasion of Ukraine, India has maintained what some have called a 바카라�strategic ambivalence바카라� towards Russia. We have abstained from numerous UN votes on the issue of using force to occupy another nation바카라�s territory, while separately calling for 바카라�respect for the sovereignty of states.바카라� We have emphasized the humanitarian costs of the war but failed to act against the aggressor. In September 2022, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Prime Minister Modi even told Putin that 바카라�democracy, diplomacy and dialogue바카라� were important, but we have not backed this up in practice. Given India바카라�s global ambitions, it is time to change this policy. It바카라�s time to support Ukraine. 

India바카라�s policy of 바카라�strategic ambivalence바카라� can be traced to our longstanding relationship with Russia going back to the Cold War. In 1955 Kruschev declared Moscow바카라�s support for India바카라�s claims over Kashmir, while India was the only South Asian nation to defend the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Soviet Union used its veto on India바카라�s behalf six times. More recently, in 1998, Russia opposed Western sanctions on India following New Delhi바카라�s nuclear tests.   

One of the main reasons offered for this policy is our reliance on Russia for military equipment. Nearly 70% of our combat aircraft, 44% of our warships and submarines, and more than 90% of our armored vehicles are of Russian origin. Although Russia바카라�s defense sales to India have dropped around 65% in the last decade (because of Western sanctions), it remains by far our biggest supplier. Russia is happy to provide India with high-leverage strategic technologies, without excessive end-user constraints. Russia has also helped build the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant 바카라� India바카라�s largest 바카라� in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. 

Our reliance on Russia, however, is mistaken. Russian support might appear to help India in the short-term, but sanctions make the alliance riskier in the long-term. The longer the war goes on, the greater Russian demand for weapons will be, resulting in a further reduction of exports to India. Furthermore, the recent destruction of multiple Russian fighter jets mid-flight is a real concern for our own pilots. 

In addition, due to export controls imposed by Taiwan and South Korea, Russia can no longer access high-end semiconductors that are vital for precision weapons and other advanced systems.  The main military threat to India is China. In the event of war, we would need the quick resupply of advanced military equipment, which Russia 바카라� as a close ally of China 바카라� would not be able to provide.  

There are also more positive reasons why we should back Ukraine. India has been historically committed to the rules-based order that Russia (and China) seek to replace. Indeed, China and Pakistan view sovereign India in the same way as Russia views sovereign Ukraine!  

Russia바카라�s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened China, which will naturally impact India, especially in the military realm. China might also force Russia to recognize Chinese claims over disputed territories in northern and northeast India, or to change its historic support for India over Kashmir. Pakistan is already a key player in China바카라�s Belt and Road Initiative; this could soon become a China-Russia-Pakistan axis.  

India바카라�s economic alliances and interests today further bolster the argument. Most of our natural allies are resolutely opposed to Putin바카라�s war. We should stand with our friends in the West in supporting Ukraine, demonstrating India바카라�s firm commitment to the rules-based order, while elevating our status as a crisis resolver, increasing our global influence.  

바카라�I know that today바카라�s era is not an era of war,바카라� Modi told Putin at the SCO summit. Unfortunately, Putin didn바카라�t heed his words. As the world바카라�s largest democracy, it바카라�s time for India to change tack.  

And we have leverage. Our history of nonalignment, and our diplomatic cordial relations with nations from East to West means that we are perfectly placed to help bring the war to a peaceful resolution.  

We have good relations with both Russia and the United States. We have worked closely with the Americans to counter the Chinese in the Indo-Pacific and, alongside Australia, Japan, and the United States, and we are active members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. And the fact that Russia is our top supplier for discounted crude oil gives us added leverage that others don바카라�t have. Finally, much of the developing world looks up to us for leadership in navigating a world dominated by major powers. 

At last year바카라�s G20 Summit, India promoted The Bali Declaration, which calls upon all nations to 바카라�uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability.바카라� It is time to put these principles, which reflect Prime Minister Modi바카라�s advice to Putin, into practice. The era of 바카라�strategic ambiguity,바카라� which all too often has veered into pro-Moscow territory, must be replaced with unambiguous support for Ukraine.   

Aman Bandvi is a senior partner at Jananiti, a think tank focussed on democracy and impact,  based out of New Delhi, India. 

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