Real or Shadow War- 바카라“Iran over Israel

Iran launched a significant attack on Israel on the night of April 13-14, sending 300 drones and missiles from its territory towards Israeli regions such as Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and the southern Negev. This aggressive move by Tehran was unprecedented since the establishment of the Israeli state in 1948. The skies over these areas were filled with the trails of interceptor missiles fired by the Iron Dome defence system and some of Israel's allies as they worked to defend against the incoming threats.

The attack on Israel by Iran was a response to an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, which Iran accuses Israel of carrying out. This attack resulted in the deaths of sixteen individuals, including two Revolutionary Guards generals. Iran's direct drone and missile assault on Israel, lasting several hours, has altered the established rules of engagement between the two opposing nations and escalated tensions in the Middle East, potentially leading to a broader conflict with destabilizing effects on the region. The strike on Damascus was viewed as a significant Israeli action against Iranian interests in Syria, surpassing previous incidents. Iran had been warning of retaliatory actions against Israel following an earlier airstrike that destroyed Iran's consulate in Syria, which was seen as a violation of diplomatic conventions.

Iran justified its actions citing Article 51 of the UN Charter, following the Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. The drone attack was seen as a message from Tehran to Tel Aviv. Despite not officially declaring it as an "Act of War," Tehran's response aimed to avoid being drawn into a larger conflict while also signalling a willingness to respond more forcefully to maintain regional deterrence. The targeted strikes on Israel were intended to re-establish Iranian deterrence and highlight a shift in Tehran's risk appetite. By setting new red lines in the conflict with Israel, Iran made it clear that it would take action if Israel's actions against Iran and its allies continued. While some may view the attack as a failure due to Israel's successful interception of Iranian drones and missiles, but on the other side a more severe strike using precision-guided ballistic missiles could have caused greater harm to Israel with less time to react.

In simpler terms, if Iran truly wanted to harm Israel, they would have kept their plans secret and used more powerful weapons to catch Israel off guard. By giving advance notice and using less effective tactics, it seems like Iran was sending a warning rather than trying to cause serious damage. It's like saying, "If you cross the line, there will be serious consequences in the future."

But the real question is that whether the Israel or Iran is ready for a serious war?

Regarding the concern with India which maintains strategic relationships with both Iran and Israel, walking a diplomatic tightrope due to their ties with both countries. India has a longstanding partnership with Iran, with Tehran being a major supplier of crude oil despite challenges from Western sanctions. The Chabahar Port serves as a crucial gateway for Indian goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia, given Pakistan's restrictions on land transit. India also has strong defence and security ties with Israel, which supported India during the Kargil War and is a top supplier of military equipment. Trade between India and Israel has grown to approximately $7.5 billion, reflecting the strengthening economic relationship between the two countries.

The relationship between New Delhi and Jerusalem has strengthened over the past decade. Despite current tensions, India has chosen to remain neutral and has called for restraint, showing a balanced approach. If tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, it could negatively impact India. As India relies on the region for 80% of its crude oil imports, any disruption in oil supplies could lead to price increases. India has strategic partnerships with Arab countries, Iran, and Israel, extending beyond oil imports and labour exports.

A broader conflict in West Asia could involve India's economic and political partners in the region. India has been collaborating with all parties involved in the unstable region and advocating for the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, which offers strategic and economic advantages for New Delhi. However, the potential for a broader conflict could hinder future plans. Peace in the region is crucial for both India and the global community, and de-escalation is seen as the appropriate course of action. Engaging in a cycle of attack and retaliation will only result in more death, suffering, and hardship. The key to resolving differences lies in dialogue and diplomacy, promoting peaceful resolutions.

One things which cannot be over ride about Iran ,is that it is considered one of the most heavily armed states in the area, boasts a sizable standing army of around 580,000 personnel and possesses an estimated stockpile of 3,000 ballistic missiles, as indicated by Western assessments. Despite this military capability, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has emphasized in the past six months during the Gaza conflict that Iran seeks to avoid being drawn into a broader confrontation. This reluctance stems from the considerable strain already placed on Iran's economy and populace due to extensive sanctions imposed by the United Nations, European Union, and the United States. So it is clear crystal that Iran is not willing to go for a war but also would be ready on toe for any kind of war if it is press on it.