In December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed under the weight of internal rebellion, economic collapse, and years of war. For Iran, this marked a strategic catastrophe. Bashar al-Assad had long served as Tehran바카라s most reliable Arab ally, granting Iran both military access and a logistical land corridor from Tehran to Beirut through Iraqi and Syrian territory. That access was essential for supporting Hezbollah and establishing a forward presence near Israel바카라s borders.
With Damascus no longer under the control of a friendly regime, Iran's land bridge to Lebanon has been severed, choking a vital artery of weapons transfers, advisors, and strategic reach. As Outlook India reported, this is more than a symbolic loss바카라it marks a rupture in Tehran바카라s hard-won presence in the Levant and weakens the core of its "axis of resistance" strategy.
Hezbollah Isolated as Israel Ramps Up Strikes
The effects of Syria바카라s collapse were felt immediately in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah is facing increasing pressure. Since 2024, Israel has conducted a relentless series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah convoys, weapons depots, and command structures. These strikes, once focused largely on Syria, have increasingly moved into Lebanese territory. As reported by Reuters, Israeli operations have degraded Hezbollah바카라s missile arsenal, eliminated several high-ranking commanders, and crippled its ability to manoeuvre openly. No longer reinforced by Iranian arms funnelled through Syria, Hezbollah is now forced into a more defensive posture, uncertain of Tehran바카라s ability to resupply and politically more isolated as Lebanese civil society turns against further escalation.
Hamas Shattered by War in Gaza
Iran's support for Hamas also appears to be yielding diminishing returns. Following the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel and the subsequent devastating Israeli ground invasion and air campaign in Gaza, Hamas바카라s infrastructure has been heavily damaged. Much of its leadership has either been killed or gone underground. While Iran vocally supported Hamas during the war, its ability to materially intervene was limited. As The Guardian and Al Jazeera have reported, Hamas emerged from the conflict a shadow of its former self바카라militarily weakened, politically isolated, and with public support within Gaza severely eroded. Iran바카라s rhetoric of 바카라resistance바카라 has done little to restore the group바카라s actual operational capability.
Iraqi Militias Drift Away from Tehran
In Iraq, Iran's influence over Shiite militias is receding. Once considered a vital arm of Iranian regional power, these militias are now increasingly absorbed into Iraq바카라s formal security structures or shifting allegiance to nationalist Iraqi leadership. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia바카라 al-Sudani has taken steps to curtail the autonomy of armed groups aligned with Tehran, particularly those involved in past confrontations with U.S. and coalition forces. The Financial Times reported in May 2025 that this shift is part of a broader Iraqi effort to stabilise its security forces, attract foreign investment, and avoid entanglement in regional conflicts. As a result, Tehran has lost significant leverage in Baghdad, undermining its former status as kingmaker in Iraqi politics.
Houthi Silence and the Limits of Influence in Yemen
Yemen바카라s Houthi rebels, the southernmost arm of Iran바카라s proxy network, had once drawn international attention by launching drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia and disrupting Red Sea shipping routes. However, in 2025, their absence from the latest round of regional escalation has been striking. As Israeli airstrikes pounded Iranian territory in June 2025, the Houthis remained silent. According to Reuters and The Economist, this suggests either operational limits imposed by Tehran or an unwillingness by the Houthis themselves to be dragged into a direct war that could backfire. Their silence marks yet another break in the cohesion of Iran바카라s extended proxy web.
From Proxy Warfare to Direct Military Conflict
With its regional partners either defeated, inactive, or drifting away, Iran has increasingly found itself confronting adversaries directly. This strategic shift was made brutally clear in June 2025, when Israel launched a wide-scale, multi-layered attack on Iranian soil. Dubbed Operation Rising Lion, the Israeli campaign targeted over 100 sites, including Iran바카라s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities, missile production complexes, and key Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centres. The strikes reportedly killed several senior IRGC officials and damaged critical components of Iran바카라s nuclear infrastructure. Reuters confirmed the death of top nuclear scientists and senior IRGC figures, while The Guardian reported that Israel had warned the U.S. and regional allies ahead of the operation, though Washington did not participate militarily.
In retaliation, Iran launched waves of drones and ballistic missiles at Israeli targets. Most of these were intercepted by Israel바카라s advanced defence systems, with relatively minor casualties reported. However, the message from Tehran was clear: Iran, cornered and desperate, would respond directly when its sovereignty was violated. The shift from proxy-enabled deniability to open, state-on-state military exchange marks a turning point in the regional conflict.
Regional Response and Global Anxiety
The regional and global response to this escalation was one of alarm. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt issued immediate statements urging restraint and warning of catastrophic consequences should the conflict spiral further. The Guardian reported that Gulf states feared a regional war that could disrupt oil flows and destabilise economies already under stress. Even Russia and China, who have recently maintained closer ties with Tehran, called for urgent diplomatic de-escalation. The Biden administration, though silent on operational specifics, reiterated its opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and placed American forces in the region on high alert. The tension cast a long shadow over the already fragile regional order.
Domestic Pressure and a Fractured Regime
Within Iran, the economic and psychological toll of this unravelling strategy is beginning to show. Although the large-scale street protests of 2022 have not yet reignited, frustration remains widespread. The Iranian currency continues to fall, inflation is rampant, and unemployment among the youth is dangerously high. The clerical establishment has sought to rally nationalist sentiment in the wake of the Israeli strikes, but confidence in the regime's ability to protect national sovereignty and regional prestige is waning. Many Iranians question why billions are spent supporting foreign militias while basic services at home deteriorate. The regime, already strained by internal divisions and economic hardship, is facing growing discontent from both reformist and hardline factions.
The Collapse of a Proxy Empire
Iran바카라s reliance on proxy warfare has long been praised in Tehran as a low-cost, high-impact way to project power across the Middle East. Yet in 2025, that empire is unravelling. The fall of Assad in Syria has severed its geographic connection to Hezbollah. Hamas has been functionally neutralised in Gaza. Iraqi militias are asserting independence. The Houthis are silent. And now, Tehran itself is being targeted in direct attacks. No longer protected by its buffer of non-state allies, the Islamic Republic is confronting the full force of state retaliation. The web of influence it wove over decades is no longer an asset바카라it is a collapsing structure, dragging the regime into a confrontation it can neither win nor escape.
