Ahead Of The Bihar Assembly Elections, Is All Well Within The NDA?

Last week, the squares of Patna were coloured with posters and hoardings carrying messages such as "Bihar kar raha hai intazar / Chirag ke swagat ko Bihar hai taiyar바카라� (Bihar awaits the coronation/It is ready to welcome Chirag). These displays served to strengthen the already existing rumours within the NDA concerning Chirag Paswan, Union Minister and Chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or the LJP (R). However, these posters and hoardings were taken down quickly, and on May 19, Paswan himself went to meet Nitish Kumar and clarified that Kumar remains the face of the NDA in Bihar. Parts of his statement to the media have been scrutinised for deeper political significations, such as his saying that 바카라�there is no vacancy this time for the chief minister바카라�s post in Bihar".

Evidently, Paswan is not simply trying to establish himself in Bihar바카라�s politics. He is already projecting himself as the chief ministerial face of the elections due in 2030. However, that is a matter for the future. Let us look at the implications of events as they pertain to the current political scene.

Paswan and his increasing political activity can be both advantageous and disadvantageous to the other NDA parties. Senior journalist Vikas Kumar reads the poster-hoarding incident as a strategy of Paswan's, but he does not see the hand of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) behind it, because the BJP will really not want to take any risks in terms of caste in Bihar.

Says Kumar, "The BJP will not want to harm the JDU [the Janata Dal United] by promoting Paswan, as it did in the past. It is keen that none of the allies do anything to upset Nitish Kumar till the elections are concluded. The JDU is quite weak at present. The BJP has no need to weaken it further. If it weakens it further, it will be exposed."

According to Kumar, Paswan is not playing at the behest of the BJP, but he is definitely actively searching for the possibilities that will strengthen his position in Bihar바카라�s politics. He wants his party to have as many seats to contest as the JDU does, though it may still be less than the seats allotted to the BJP, and he also wants the post of Deputy CM. To that end, he has been ramping up his pressure tactics. If reports are to be believed, the LJP (R) has claimed 50-60 seats in the NDA.

Recently, Paswan said in the context of the Assembly elections that he was more interested in Bihar바카라�s politics than that of the Centre. His meeting with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and former Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav during a programme held after the poster-hoarding incident cannot be deemed a coincidence.

However, the LJP (R) denies all such claims. The party's chief spokesperson Rajesh Bhatt says, "No official statement has been given by our party or any of our leaders regarding the seats and the Deputy CM post. These are baseless claims. Our alliance is very strong and Chirag ji has already said that we will contest the elections under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. As for the posters, the party workers have expressed their feelings, that's all."

The BJP and the JDU make similar claims. Both of them declare that there are no differences of opinion within the NDA, the alliance is strong, and there will be no problems with regard to seat sharing in the coming elections.

But Pushyamitra, a senior journalist, does not buy the claim that all is well within the NDA. He is of the view that the BJP was involved in the poster-hoarding incident. The BJP is the largest party in the NDA, and it still nurses the desire to form a government on its own so that there can be a BJP chief minister in the state.

Pushyamitra says, "We need to understand the political significance of this incident. Chirag's supporters are demanding the CM post. Everyone knows that Chirag Paswan is very close to the BJP. I don't think that the poster incident could have taken place without the BJP's approval. The positions of Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha in the alliance are not very strong. That is why this game is being played through Chirag."

He adds, "The BJP wants to give the JDU seats as per their previous performance in the state elections. So, there will be an attempt to give it 70-75 seats. But the JDU will want this to be decided in the manner of the last Lok Sabha elections [when it contested from as many seats as the BJP did]. That is, it will want to get the same number of seats as the BJP."

Political experts say that Paswan wants to become the chief minister in the future, but at present, he is already building pressure on the alliance regarding the seat sharing. It appears that he enjoys the BJP바카라�s support in both these matters.

Who stands to gain and who stands to lose as a result of the growing political stature of Paswan in Bihar politics can be surmised from the results of the last Bihar Assembly elections.

In 2020, Paswan wanted to contest from 30-40 seats, but Nitish Kumar did not acquiesce to the demand. Then Paswan fielded his candidate against all of Kumar바카라�s 115 candidates in order to oust him from power. As a result, Nitish's JDU won only 43 seats, and for the first time in Bihar, the BJP became the number one party in terms of seats won, and the JDU was relegated to the third spot. Although Paswan's LJP (R) actually won only one seat, it managed to cause a big dent in Kumar바카라�s image and stature. Ever since, Kumar and Paswan have been at loggerheads.

Pushyamitra believes that the BJP is going into these elections with a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, it wants to keep its allies from breaking away. This is especially true of Kumar, because even now, in addition to the Koeri-Kurmi constituency, large sections of the Extremely Backward Castes and women are with him. On the other hand, the party is also working to chip away at Kumar through Paswan. However, Paswan is not the only one within the NDA to challenge Kumar as the CM candidate. Senior BJP leaders have been saying from time to time that the next NDA government will be helmed by a chief minister from their party. Saying that all is well within the NDA would seem to be a bid to sweep these differences under the carpet.

(Translated by Kaushika Draavid)