Can The Iranian Regime Survive?

The Islamic State of Iran, is facing an existential challenge, the gravest, since the 1979 Revolution threw out the Shah of Iran and brought the clergy to power. America entering the war with Israel has changed the ground situation. The unpredictable and temperamental Donald Trump is sending out mixed signals on regime change. Initially it was just Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers who spoke of it but now Trump appears to be playing to the Israeli leaders tune.

"It바카라�s not politically correct to use the term, 바카라�Regime Change,바카라� but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn바카라�t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!바카라� Trump said in a Truth Social post.

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Trump바카라�s latest missive has only added to the uncertainty, as he veers between calls for diplomacy and tacit signals that he might support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu바카라�s long-standing goal: the toppling of Iran바카라�s clerical regime and the installation of a pro-Western government in Tehran.

But as is well known, regime change is dangerous and can result in something much worse than what was earlier in place. Iraq and Libya are recent examples.

``Iran is not a one-man dictatorship. It is not like getting rid of a Saddam Hussain or a Muhammad Gaddafi where when the strong man is taken out the system collapses,바카라�바카라� says Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia and an expert on West Asia. Ahmad believes the regime could well survive. Other Indian diplomats tend to agree, including Kanwal Sibal, a former foreign secretary as well as KP Fabian a retired diplomat.

The Iranian regime has been in place for over 50-years, and is not just a Ayatollah Khamenei heading the government. The foundation is strong and the tentacles of the state touch every sphere of Iranian life. The Islamic state has been built with care to survive. The fact that Ali Khamenei has taken the precaution of forwarding three names to the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body responsible for choosing his successor. This underlies his efforts at a smooth transition of power and efforts to ensure that the gains of the Iranian Revolution remain intact. Normally the process of choosing a successor takes several months, but because of the circumstances it could be swift.

The Ayatollah바카라�s writ permeates all institutions from the military바카라�including the IRGC and all wings of the defense forces, as well as the judiciary and the executive. He is also the religious head and the most senior guardian of the Shiite faith.

The Supreme leader also decides which candidates contest parliamentary elections, through his people who man the election process and throws out those who could question the regime or the state believes is unfit to contest. Education, culture and entertainment down to personal choices as to how women should dress all fall within the Islamic state바카라�s purview.

Though most former Indian diplomats believe that the current Iranian state can be easily toppled, the fact remains that the situation on the ground is difficult. If a diplomatic solution can be reached, the regime will survive. But a long drawn war could make it difficult.

With no opposition waiting in the wings to take over, who can possibly be the replacement. The pro=western former Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, who fled Iran when he was 17, when his father was ousted during the revolution, is now doing the rounds of American television stations and putting himself forward as a replacement. Incidentally his daughter is married to a Israeli businessman. He is pro-Western like his father and could suit the bill.

But it is too early to say if the US will go for regime change, despite Trump바카라�s social media hints.

When Trump spoke after the US strikes on the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, he did not hint at regime change, instead said there was still time to save the country is Iran agreed to give up its nuclear plans. On Sunday, his defense secretary Pete Hegseth made it clear that the US was not about getting rid of the Iranian government.

"This mission was not and has not been about regime change," Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon, calling the mission "a precision operation" targeting Iran's nuclear program. Vice President JD Vance also emphasized this point in a Sunday morning talk show, saying "our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change."