Neighbourhood Frisky Relationship: A Relook At Indo-Bangladesh Relations

Away from the cacophony of India바카라�s Western Front, the dragon is silently but surely dancing its way deeper around India바카라�s East. About 10 days ago, media reports said that Chinese officials were inspecting the Lalmonirhat airbase in Rangpur, Bangladesh, which the government is planning to rebuild. Even if it is ostensibly for commercial purposes, its dual use for military purposes cannot be ruled out. Such an airbase located barely 20 km south of the international border of the Siliguri Corridor causes concerns in India, more so when seen in the larger context of the unfolding geopolitics.

The Siliguri Corridor is an East-West National corridor connecting India바카라�s Northeastern states; it is approximately 160-170 km in length, and approximately 65-75 km in width. The corridor gets constricted to about 20 by 22 km on the western end, where the Nepal border comes in proximity to the Bangladesh border. This constricted part is referred to as the chicken바카라�s neck바카라�approximately 130 km away from Lalmonirhat. The Siliguri Corridor is significant because two national highways and two broad-gauge railway lines run through it, with multiple road and railway bridges, and the millions of tonnes of freight that move in and out of the Northeast, and connectivity to Bhutan. Given its strategic importance, there are substantial military assets deployed and significant movements happen both east and westwards all the time.

The Siliguri Corridor and the high mountains that help in defending it have been of great strategic interest to China. In 1967, a series of aggressive actions by China in the Nathu La area in Sikkim led to armed clashes, in which the Indian Army responded very strongly. The Chinese actions at Nathu La were part of its strategy to assert territorial claims and influence in the region, which were effectively beaten back. In 2017, there was a 72-day long border stand-off in Doklam. China had set out to undertake a road construction project that would connect the Doklam Plateau to Jampheri Ridge. China바카라�s aim was to change the status quo on the border with India and Bhutan, and maintain a permanent presence. Any Chinese advance in the Doklam area is a strategic threat to the Siliguri Corridor, which was effectively denied by the prompt response of the Indian Army. The Chinese have since upgraded the road on their side of the border and improved defensive positions.

With increased economic and technological prowess, China is adopting new strategies to pursue its policies consistently. Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh, appears to be their new proxy in the game. In March this year, during his visit to China, Yunus urged Beijing to establish an economic foothold in Bangladesh by leveraging its strategic position as the 바카라�only guardian of the ocean바카라� in the region. Yunus said, 바카라�The seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the Seven Sisters. They are a landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean. So this opens up a huge possibility. This could be an extension of the Chinese economy.바카라�

Visions of expanding into the Northeastern states of India have appeared in the thinking of leaders from the area well before the partition in 1947, the days of the erstwhile East Bengal. More recent are delusionary movements like 바카라�greater Bangla바카라� and 바카라�Sultanate Bangla바카라� that include Bihar, Jharkhand and Northeastern states in their maps. Yunus바카라� innovation, however, is to get China into the scheme in an economic framework. In April 2025, India terminated the transshipment facility for Bangladeshi exports primarily due to concerns about congestion at Indian ports and airports, rising logistical costs, and delays impacting Indian exporters. The decision followed complaints from Indian exporters about the burden on infrastructure caused by the increased volume of Bangladeshi cargo. Notwithstanding the primary reason, the connect between Yunus바카라� notion of 바카라�guardianship of the ocean바카라� and India바카라�s reaction was hardly missed.

During a recent visit of Nepalese leaders to Bangladesh, Yunus called for a joint economic strategy: 바카라�There should be an integrated economic plan for Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and the Seven Sisters바카라� We have more to gain together than apart.바카라� Bangladesh and Nepal reportedly discussed the 바카라�need to improve direct road links바카라� to lower trade costs and ease the movement of goods and people across the region. Both Bangladesh and Nepal are signatories to China바카라�s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Credit for such fine orchestration of the expanding BRI script must be given to Beijing, not Kathmandu or Dhaka.

China has been Bangladesh바카라�s strategic partner for some time now. It has been involved in major connectivity projects; China is Bangladesh바카라�s largest arms supplier. Bangladesh and China regularly conduct joint military exercises. From an India-China strategic balancing policy that erstwhile Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina followed, Yunus has chosen to play to the galleries by taking a hardline anti-India stance. Internally, it stokes strong anti-Hasina emotions and externally, it helps him to do business with China, Pakistan and Nepal.

Internally, Yunus is also on an overdrive to strengthen his position in the power struggle between the Chief of Army Staff, General Waker-Uz-Zaman and himself. While on the one hand Zaman is insisting on national elections by December, on the other, Yunus has banned Hasina바카라�s Awami League. By banning the Awami League, Yunus has manipulated the political field in favour of radical extremist groups, who too are not in favour of early elections. Yunus wants to push his economic reforms first, strengthen his position and then hold elections.

Yunus envisions himself [Bangladesh] to be at the hub of this 바카라�economic extension of China바카라�. Yunus visualises lifting Bangladesh out of poverty through large-scale Chinese investments for connectivity infrastructure; set up air bridges connecting Bangladesh by air with the landlocked states; possibly construct 바카라�direct road links바카라� from China cutting through Nepal, Bhutan, India바카라�s Eastern and Northeastern states, brushing aside all hurdles, and rolling into Bangladesh and opening into the ocean through a series of ports. To facilitate this grand vision, he wants to rebuild six World War II era air bases, of which Lalmonirhat is drawing maximum attention.

Activation of an airbase by China so close to the international border in a sensitive region is a cause of concern for India because it facilitates close surveillance and reconnaissance on our movements and deployments. In today바카라�s day and age, forces in the field may take adequate protective measures against reconnaissance by satellites and aircraft, both manned and unmanned. Therefore, close surveillance helps immensely in confirming findings from other sources. In such circumstances, a close reconnaissance facility provided by Bangladesh to China is a great asset during peace, grey zone war and general war. Technological advancements have multiplied the potential of non-kinetic attacks manifold. A friendly base in an ostensibly neutral third country can support and/or supplement non-kinetic attacks. Neutralising an adversarial asset in a third country that is not actively hostile is a tricky challenge and is best dealt with before it goes out of hand.

We need to relook at Bangladesh prioritising our interests in mind, evolve with the current domestic dynamics of Bangla­desh, rather than remain glued to the past or just 바카라�wait and watch바카라�. There are deep divisions in the state of Bangladesh바카라�s polity that offer a fresh opportunity to engage with evolving power centres to pre-empt these new challenges even as we remain consistent with the essence of our 바카라�Neighbourhood First Policy바카라�.

(Views expressed are personal)

Lt Gen Dr Subrata Saha (Retd) is Executive Chairman Of The Manekshaw Centre Of Excellence For National Security Studies And Research

This article is part of Outlook Magazine's June 11, 2025 issue, 'Living on the Edge', which explores India바카라�s fragile borderlands and the human cost of conflict. It appeared in print as 'Neighbourhood Frisky Policy.'