Delhi Gets A Double Engine

But has the idea of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as all its leaders never tire of insisting, and the brand of politics of Kejriwal been completely extinguished? The party will rue the fact that it is the only one ever to lose an election with a vote share of 43.55 per cent. It is a big 10 per cent drop from the party바카라�s sweep in 2020 but for such an emphatic win by the BJP (45.76 per cent), the difference is only a little over two per cent. But these are ballpark numbers. A close look at vote shares in different constituencies is more revealing.

Kejriwal바카라�s AAP saw a sharp decline in vote share across key demographics, particularly among Dalit and Muslim voters. In the SC-reserved constituencies, its vote share dropped by 15-20 per cent. In areas where AAP had previously tasted easy victories, such as Seemapuri and Karol Bagh, the party바카라�s vote share fell from over 60 per cent in 2020 to below 50 per cent in 2025. More concerning for AAP was its defeat in Bawana, Madipur and Mangolpuri바카라�seats it had dominated in the previous elections. In these areas, the BJP was not only able to consolidate its own vote bank but also attract swing voters.

According to Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of C-Voter, the middle class was the 바카라�pendulum vote bank바카라� in this election, and they swung towards the BJP given AAP바카라�s image problems after the corruption charges. Further, by AAP바카라�s own admission, they had been unable to deliver on many of their welfare schemes, which left the middle class upset.

The BJP바카라�s statements바카라�that it would continue AAP바카라�s welfare schemes alongside the tax benefits it announced in the 2025 Union Budget바카라�seem to have found many takers. 바카라�The middle class was upset but the budget appears to have given them a reason to come out and that converted into a large vote share for the BJP. There are multiple layers to that. The campaign by the BJP was meticulous in that sense,바카라� says Deshmukh.

AAP was faced with setbacks in Muslim-dominated areas and with its SC-voter base as well. It managed to retain six out of seven such constituencies바카라�its vote share in Mustafabad saw a 20-point decline from 53.2 per cent to just 33 per cent. The entry of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and a resurgent Congress further divided Muslim votes in Okhla바카라�AAP바카라�s vote share fell by 24 per cent, AIMIM and Congress gained at its expense.

(This appeared in the print as 'BJP바카라�s Delhiverance')

Among the SC-reserved constituencies바카라�traditionally AAP strongholds바카라�the BJP won a third of the seats바카라�four out of 12. Among OBC candidates, 16 out of 22 BJP nominees were victorious. The party also gained some traction with the Purvanchali voters, a crucial electoral demographic in Delhi. In 35 constituencies with over 15 per cent Purvanchali voters, the BJP won 25 seats.

Post-facto analysis is always easy, but was the Congress and the AAP바카라�both part of the India Bloc바카라�not coming together to fight the Delhi elections a mistake? The Congress failed to win any seats on its own, but managed to cut the votes of AAP바카라�in 14 constituencies, the combined votes of AAP and Congress were more than that of the BJP.

Despite facing several corruption cases, jail time and vacating the chief minister바카라�s chair, Kejriwal was a relentless campaigner during the 2025 elections. In the initial months of campaigning, the BJP top cadre was preoccupied with elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. This is when Kejriwal consolidated his voter base. By the time the election dates were announced, AAP had already declared most of its candidates, while the BJP delayed its list, adding to perceptions of disarray.

While two weeks before voting, it seemed like AAP had the momentum to win Delhi elections for the third term, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari says the cracks had already begun to surface. 바카라�AAP depends on borrowed votes. Its vote base in Delhi is very less바카라�20 to 25 per cent바카라�whereas the BJP바카라�s is 35 per cent. What AAP does is that it borrows the Lok Sabha voters of Congress and the BJP in the Assembly elections. But, on its own, in these 10 years, AAP has not been able to expand its base despite being 10 years in power,바카라� he says.

While the main fight was between the BJP and the AAP, Congress also provided a challenge to Kejriwal바카라�s party. AAP had eroded Congress바카라� voter base in 2015 and 2020, so Congress leaders took on a strong offensive this year. They targeted Kejriwal and other AAP top brass for the corruption cases against them, with Ajay Maken calling him 바카라�Farjiwal.바카라� The INC split the anti-BJP vote in Timarpur, Badli, and Jungpura, helping the rise of the BJP.

The attack by the Congress, along with the anti-incumbency sentiment against AAP, coupled with corruption allegations such as the liquor scam and the 바카라�Sheesh Mahal바카라� controversy, meant that AAP, too, knew they were not contesting this election on their best foot. In 2013, AAP바카라�s anti-corruption narrative defined the election, while the 2025 campaign was marked by Kejriwal struggling to counter the BJP바카라�s focus on governance and development. 바카라�The minority votes were affected by the Congress and that took away about 5-10 per cent of the minority vote,바카라� says Tiwari.

The voters, it would appear, were also fatigued by AAP바카라�s narrative of 바카라�complaints바카라�, say analysts. The AAP, by its own admission, had not managed to get any of its welfare schemes off the ground. While Kejriwal placed much of the blame for this on the Lieutenant Governor바카라�s (LG) feet, it has backfired, says Arun Kumar, former professor at JNU and the Malcolm Adiseshiah Chair Professor at the Institute of Social Sciences in New Delhi. 바카라�What the BJP has done is that they바카라�ve made it very clear that Delhi is not going to get the benefits unless the Centre and state have the same government. Therefore, people decided that they need the Centre and state to be on the same page if they are to get any benefits,바카라� he reasons.

The BJP regained some of the confidence that it lost in the Lok Sabha election after its victories in the Assembly elections of Haryana and Maharashtra, which were led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi branded AAP the 바카라�AAPda바카라� (disaster), and led an aggressive letter-writing campaign to Delhi바카라�s electorate. The BJP leaders held massive rallies across the capital city to galvanise their cadre and shift the mood of the party workers and floating voters. The party also assured voters that existing welfare schemes, including free electricity and water, would not be discontinued바카라�knocking the wind out of AAP바카라�s strongest appeal.

Now, with the so-called double engine바카라�BJP governments both in the state and the Centre바카라�the BJP will have to show some quick results to Delhi바카라�s middle class which has trusted them to improve the city바카라�s infrastructure. While Delhi바카라�s pollution was the main topic of discussion in the cocktail circuits, no party had it as a serious issue in their manifestoes. The BJP will have to make sure the direct benefit transfers work on the ground, the city바카라�s traffic situation is eased and the Yamuna is made to look like a river again rather than a drain. Whoever is chosen as the next chief minister, they will join Delhi바카라�s rush hour running.