A NATO Without The US?

바카라�Donald Trump, during a presidential campaign rally in 2024 

As the Ukraine war rages on and Donald Trump marks his first 100 days as the President of the United States, questions have surfaced regarding the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and USA바카라�s role in it.

In 2024, Trump made headlines and faced a backlash from allies when he stated he would let "Russia do whatever it wants".

This remark, which went against NATO바카라�s Article 5바카라�an attack on one is an attack on all바카라�reflected Trump바카라�s stance against NATO, which as per him, stands 바카라�obsolete바카라� and is simply 바카라�leeching off바카라� the US military.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has claimed that the US is pouring 바카라�billions and billions of dollars바카라� into NATO and it will no longer be 바카라�ripped off바카라� by allies. 

NATO, which has been a sign of Western 바카라�brotherhood바카라� for the past 75 years, now stands at a crossroads, with Europe realising that the US may no longer be as reliable an ally as it once was.

Trump also shocked allies after he cosied up to Russia and President Vladimir Putin, as he claimed to be working to bring an end to the worst war the continent has seen since the Second World War. 

Trump바카라�s sentiments on NATO being 바카라�obsolete바카라� echoes the statements of Putin, who continues to stand staunchly against NATO바카라�s expansion, especially after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. 

In 2007, at the Munich Security Conference, Putin accused the West of 바카라�forgetting and breaking assurances바카라� while citing the expansion of the US-led organisation. With Trump speaking on the same lines, here바카라�s a look at the history of NATO. 

What Is NATO? 

NATO was formed as a Western military alliance, led by the US to counter the Soviet Union and the influence of Communism. 

Founded in 1949, the US-led organisation remains a pillar of US-Europe military cooperation. One of the key aspects which defined this alliance was NATO바카라�s

Article 5. With this Article, NATO continued to stand as one unit. However, in 2022, Russia바카라�s invasion of Ukraine shook Europe바카라�s security and prompted nations to prepare to fight against Russian aggression should it reach their borders. 

Russia바카라�s growing aggression also resulted in countries such as Sweden and Finland dropping their decades-long status of neutrality and joining forces with the US-led alliance. However, with the return of Trump, NATO countries are now doubtful about how much the US will contribute and whether Washington will remain a part of the alliance. 

NATO바카라�s Expansion: A 바카라�Betrayal바카라� To Russia 

While the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, NATO did not. Over the years, under different American leaders, the Western alliance kept expanding, which would later on upset Russia. 

Presidents such as Bill Clinton initially opposed the expansion of NATO, as the US was afraid of upsetting ties with Russia. However, as NATO continued to expand, speaking at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Putin launched an assault at the US and accused it of 바카라�overstepping its national borders바카라� and leaving 바카라�international law in ruins바카라�. 

Putin바카라�s speech brought focus on a promise made by US President George H. W. Bush and Secretary of State James Baker to former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not expand. 

After the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the fall of the Soviet Union became inevitable. Drawing on this event, the US assured Gorbachev that the NATO alliance will not expand. However, this assurance was given on the condition that the Soviet Union would accept the reunification of Germany. In his memoir, Gorbachev noted that assurances regarding NATO바카라�s expansion led to Russia 바카라�compromising바카라� and accepting the reunification of Germany. 

However, what went wrong for Gorbachev and the Russian Federation was the fact that these assurances never made it into the form of a treaty. With a lack of a written guarantee, many Eastern European and former Soviet states proceeded to join NATO. After the fall of USSR, several former states and Warsaw Pact members joined the Western alliance. 

Countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic became members in 1999. Members of the Warsaw Pact, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia (successor of Czechoslovakia), and former Soviet states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania became members in 2004. 

During this time, successor states of Yugoslavia, which were not part of the USSR, but under Soviet influence, also broke away and moved towards NATO. In 2004, Slovenia and in 2009, Croatia were admitted as members. 

In 2009, Albania, which was a part of the Warsaw Pact, but withdrew in 1968, formally joined NATO. Other Yugoslavian states such as Montenegro (2017) and North Macedonia (2020) were also admitted into the alliance. 

While all Soviet states did not join NATO after 1991, states such as Armenia, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and many more joined hands with the military organisation under their 바카라�Partnership for Peace바카라� pact. 

With this expansion into Eastern Europe and Central Asia, NATO got closer to the Russian border, raising an alarm in Moscow. The expansion of the alliance also strained Russia바카라�s ties with the US. 

Ukraine is currently aiming for a seat in NATO. After Russia바카라�s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Kyiv has sought a seat in NATO, and its demand has only intensified after the 2022 invasion of Kyiv. Russia has protested against Ukraine바카라�s membership바카라�it stated it as a key condition for a ceasefire바카라�citing the 1990 assurance given to Gorbachev. 

Who Contributes The Most To NATO? 

Since its foundation, the US has been one of the largest contributors to NATO, followed by Germany and the UK. As per NATO바카라�s statistics for 2024, the US has financed around 15.8 per cent of the alliance바카라�s yearly expenditure of $3.5 billion. 

Since his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump has often said that the US will no longer be 바카라�the schmucks paying for the whole thing바카라�. But NATO바카라�s data contradicts Trump바카라�s statements that the US contributes and finances two-thirds of the military alliance, which amounts to 66 per cent. However, as per the figures of 2024, almost all NATO allies met their defence spending guidelines, which stands at two per cent of each country바카라�s GDP. In 2023, the US stood in third place when it came to defence funding, with 3.5 per cent. Ahead of the US was Poland, which spent 3.9 per cent of its GDP. 

NATO Without The US? 

With Trump in power, many NATO members have realised that the US may no longer come to their aid. Trump is also working towards a policy shift, which may shake up NATO바카라�s Article 5. As per NBC News, Trump has discussed the possibility of the US not defending a NATO member if the country in question 바카라�does not meet the defence threshold바카라�. 

Though US officials have stated that Trump stands firm on NATO and Article 5, his stance on the Ukraine war has resulted in fellow European members turning into sceptics. 

Trump바카라�s reset with Russia, the spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office, the halting of military aid to Ukraine and the talks with Moscow regarding a truce are just some of the things that have taken Europe by surprise. 

Knowing that the US cannot be trusted any longer, the European Union has already sprung into action. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced a defence proposal of 800 billion euros, which would focus on Europe strengthening its military might. France and Britain have taken the lead to support Ukraine and have already held various security meetings without the US at the table. 

Meanwhile, European countries are also working towards increasing the GDP amount needed for defence budget, with the UK aiming for three per cent by 2027. If NATO allies up their game, they would 바카라�easily바카라� be able to make up for the gap that Washington would leave in the annual budget. 

바카라�Europe alone (still has) a capacity to muster the resources it would need to defend itself, it바카라�s just a question of whether (it is) willing to,바카라� says Ben Schreer, Europe's executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 

Danita Yadav is a new Delhi-based journalist specialising in international politics

This article is a part of Outlook's April 1, 2025 issue 'World At Reset', which explores the ongoing changes in the global geopolitical order. It appeared in print as 'NATO: The Meltdown'.