Uneasy Tango Of Big Ambitions

There are clearly novel elements in the mix now: the Tibet card, for one. If war is diplomacy by other means, peace too carries arrows in its quiver. China is super sensitive about Tibet and India has always maintained a careful balance on that front. On the one hand, it hosts the revered Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in Dharamshala, headquarters of the Tibetan government in exile. But in deference to China, India does not allow any political or anti-China activities on Indian soil. No Indian minister can meet with the Dalai Lama. This is a provision that can change. Activating the Tibet card will infuriate China, and some signs of that are already in the air: the deployment of SSF at the LAC, and BJP general secretary Ram Madhav바카라�s attendance at Nyima Tenzin바카라�s funeral.

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Simultaneously, there바카라�s also talk of the 바카라�Taiwan card바카라�. If anything, any move on the controversial Cross-Strait Relation by New Delhi바카라�China does not recognise Taiwan as a separate entity바카라�will sting Beijing harder than even Tibet. India can upgrade relations with Taiwan, encouraging business ties and people-to-people contacts. Taiwan has long wanted to invest in India. While China may not bother about business ties, a visit to the island by a senior official or even a junior minister can show China that India can rock the boat too. As of now, the old caution and ­calibration is being maintained, but just the fact that these ideas are on the table shows how much the static chessboard is now roiled with tension.

Managing relations with a rising, assertive China is one of India바카라�s major foreign policy challenges this century. Beijing likes to see itself as the headquarters of a world power that will own the future, and India바카라�s own stated ambitions are not exactly modest either바카라�that does not make it an easy tango. The political, economic and military strands of this complex relationship run deep into the soil on either side, and horizontally cover a dynamic field outside: in the neighbourhood and the wider Asian theatre. China바카라�s grand extra-territorial grid, the Belt and Road Initiative, is part of the story; so are the ripples caused by India바카라�s moves on Kashmir바카라�s legal status; also, its pro-US foreign policy tilt in recent decades.

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All that has led up to the showdown in Ladakh. Recent months have seen a high level of troop engagement, with both sides jockeying for strategic advantage at several points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Emotions are running high, and words of war (and peace) are being exchanged urgently from both sides: belligerence and dipl­omacy, both are proceeding apace. The foreign ministers are meeting, and soldiers are staring each other down on the border바카라�all at once. Neither country may want to take that extreme step, but even an accidental fire by one side could have consequences that can바카라�t be easily controlled.

Trouble is, the rules of engagement with China have changed, with no guarantee that peace and tranquillity can be maintained. The 3,488-km-long border is largely unmarked and until a boundary agreement is reached and maps exchan­ged, both sides will stick to their perception of the LAC. This border dispute is both symptom and cause바카라�there are regions contiguous to Tibet within India, culturally an extension of the Tibetan sphere, that China claims it ought to have rights over. Beijing has sorted out the border issues with all other neighbours, save India and Bhutan. This long line along the Himalayas lingers as a source of resentment, and also as a lever China can crank up any time it wishes.

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As the two Asian giants stand inches away from a potential war, the spotlight is on India바카라�s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Questions are being asked about whether New Delhi misread China and its leader President Xi Jinping. It can바카라�t have not known that it was a difficult, pingpong love that India was trying to pursue. Modi had shared a swing with Xi on the Sabarmati riverfront in 2014, and visited China twice in the next two years before the June-August 2017 faceoff at Doklam; one more visit, for a BRICS session, followed right after. Modi and Xi then met on the banks of the Yangtse a year later바카라�the 바카라�Wuhan spirit바카라� was touted as a resetting of ties. Another show of bonhomie followed at Mahabalipuram last year. Obviously, these rounds of personal tête-à-tête have yielded little dividends.

Ironically, Modi is being accused of blind trust in the Communist Party of China바카라�s leadership: the same charge the BJP regularly heaps on its pet hate, Nehru, for the 1962 debacle. His frank outreach to China presents a paradox, because critics trace China바카라�s current muscle-flexing ­directly to a contrary strand in New Delhi바카라�s foreign policy: its increasingly close ties with the US, inaugurated in the 바카라�90s by P.V. Narasimha Rao, and adhered to with equal ­passion by the UPA and NDA-II. This is what has brought the extra needle into Sino-Indian relations.

바카라�The Chinese action in Ladakh is a rude and robust ­reminder to India of its geography, that it shares an ­undefined border with China. So tangoing with the US on the Indo-Pacific will not enhance India바카라�s security,바카라� says Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador and someone who tracks India바카라�s foreign policy closely. He believes China is concerned about India바카라�s close cooperation with the US on the Indo-Pacific and the revival in 2017 of the Quad바카라�the quadrilateral grouping of US, Japan, Australia and India that바카라�s essentially aimed at containing China, and is ­naturally seen as a strategic threat by it. The Quad is ­scheduled to meet in Delhi later this month.

According to Ahmad, securing India바카라�s border with China should be of primary concern to Delhi. The South China Sea may be pivotal to US strategic interests, but not India바카라�s, he says. So being party to provoking China on the Indo-Pacific poses much higher risks for India that Washington does not necessarily share. Has India then drifted too far from its foreign policy autonomy for its own good?

바카라�That is a false premise,바카라� says former ­diplomat P.S. Raghavan, who chairs the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB). 바카라�Ever since the 2005 civil nuclear deal, there has been a paradigm shift in ties ­between the two democracies. India-US ties are a given, China does not need to react to it now, after nearly a decade.바카라� Raghavan reads China바카라�s new aggression as part of a wider behaviour on display across Asia, not something confined to Ladakh바카라�he cites the sabre-rattling over the South China Sea, with Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam. In his view, it has more to do with its new style of aggressive ­engagement with the world, what바카라�s now called 바카라�wolf warrior diplomacy바카라�. 바카라�The hectoring tone foreign minister Wang Yi is using to lecture the world is making people recoil. According to reports, this was clearly evident during his ­recent swing through Europe,바카라� Raghavan says.

This introduces another dynamic into the equation. With India seen as firmly in the US 바카라�camp바카라�, China aims to send a clear message across the region that it바카라�s the Big Daddy, the pre-eminent power of Asia. This is not necessarily ideal for New Delhi, as Washington would do little beyond issuing statements. The flip side is that the Chinese threat could push India even closer to the US바카라�today it바카라�s a defence ­partner, but if push comes to shove it could well become an ally, and that would ­further invite the portraiture of being a ­client state, and more aggression바카라�a vicious cycle wrought by perceptions.

Not all of that is warranted, as a realistic appraisal of enlightened self-interest has always guided New Delhi. That바카라�s partly what spurs New Delhi바카라�s continued ­opposition to President Xi바카라�s pet Belt and Road Initiative as well as the Maritime Silk Route plan, which has left China disappointed. It바카라�s true that Beijing had tried its utmost to get India onboard. The $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which runs through PoK, which India claims as its own, had turned off New Delhi, as it impinged on issues of India바카라�s sovereignty.

At another level, China itself is in transformation. 바카라�The China of Xi Jinping is very different from the China of the past,바카라� says Ashok Kantha, former Indian ambassador to Beijing. 바카라�It바카라�s an altogether different ball game now.바카라� Indeed, the 19th congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017 was in a way a coming-out party for China. The country had arrived on the world stage: its ultimate aim was not just Asian hegemony, but to challenge the US itself. It was at this event that Xi elevated himself to a status that hitherto only Mao Zedong has seen, after which measures were initiated to ease the way for him remaining president for life. Xi now spoke of exporting the Chinese way of ­socialism to the world. After Deng Xiaoping바카라�s opening up in 1978, when Chinese were told to put their heads down and concentrate on development, Beijing has crossed that threshold, and is today the number two economy in the world. The time to assert its dominance has arrived.

And what about India? Non-alignment was the hallmark of Nehru바카라�s foreign policy. It suited the world at that time, with newly liberated colonies forging a new solidarity, ­staying aloof from the Cold War camps led by the US and the former Soviet Union, and not getting involved in their relentless proxy wars across Asia, Africa and Latin America. Over the years, non-alignment lost much of the sheen of its glory days바카라�though NAM still exists as a body, it바카라�s moribund. Is it dead in spirit too?

Well, India has never abandoned the right to make its ­sovereign choices. Despite proximity with the US, it still ­accords a lot of value to its old partnership with Russia바카라�nor has it let Washington바카라�s caveats circumscribe its dealing with Iran. And Modi cannot at least be faulted for not ­trying with China. Under his regime, the principle of non-alignment still operates, with a few simple tweaks to fit today바카라�s situation, and of course delinked from the Nehruvian nomenclature. Strategic autonomy and strategic choices are the new buzzwords. Like every other ­nation, India will do what is best for its national interest. Foreign minister S. Jaishankar has publicly said several times in different forums that 바카라�non-alignment is an old concept today, but India will never be a part of an alliance system바카라�. And again: 바카라�We were never part of an alliance ­system and we will never be.바카라�

So while New Delhi dallies with the US and its allies in Quad, it바카라�s also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian grouping where China and Russia call the shots. Russia, India and China also partner in RIC. India바카라�s ties with the EU and ASEAN are excellent. There was also the BRICS initiative, even if at present it seems likely to belie the enthusiasm with which it began. India has great ties with both Israel and the Gulf kingdoms. And Rajnath Singh바카라�s stopover in Tehran last week for talks with his counterpart was a clear attempt to ease the strains brought on by US sanctions. As it is, China바카라�s overtures to Iran, with a $400 billion deal spread over a 25-year period, is causing major consternation across the world바카라�an Indian affirmation of old ties with Iran comes not a day too late. Forging links with sundry countries on issues of shared ­interests is the only way forward in a fast-changing world with multiple interests.

바카라�India has to maximise its advantages and make the best of the current flux, being overcautious and timid will not help,바카라� says Kantha, now director of the Institute of China Studies. 바카라�India will have to redefine its China strategy and rework policy to fit the changed circumstances. There are no easy answers, nor a readymade playbook, we have to learn as we go along.바카라� Self-interest demands that, given the asymmetry in economic and defence capabilities, India has to make use of 바카라�external balancing factors,바카라� Kantha says바카라�that includes loose alliances with the US and other powers with similar concerns about the rise of a belligerent China. Again, whether the Modi government will bring Tibet and Taiwan into the equation is hard to say. But it바카라�s surely not business as usual.