Less than nine months before Punjab votes a new government, commonsense dictates that the Congress focuses its energy to retain power in one of the three states it governs. But then, political pragmatism is anathema to the party바카라s praxis. For months, the party바카라s central leadership has been dousing factional fires in its Punjab unit that were left simmering for nearly three years without decisive and pre-emptive intervention.
The power game within the Congress is now in its final lap with the party바카라s central leadership바카라Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra바카라having held separate discussions with almost all stakeholders. The meeting between chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh and party chief Sonia a fortnight ago indicated that the Punjab impasse may finally end. The party바카라s general secretary in-charge of Punjab, Harish Rawat, insists that an 바카라amicable resolution바카라 is in the offing, with a revamp of Singh바카라s cabinet and the party바카라s state unit likely soon.
The mutiny by Punjab바카라s Congress leaders forced Sonia to set up a three-member panel headed by Mallikarjun Kharge. The panel met over 150 leaders and made an avoidable public spectacle of summoning the CM twice to Delhi. While Congress sources insist that most dissenters have been pacified, they also concede that a formula to rein in cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu remains elusive. Sidhu바카라s long meeting with the Gandhi siblings earlier this July was supposed to pacify the mercurial leader who had quit the BJP to join the Congress five years ago. But, the former cricketer has continued with his broadside against the CM. The Amritsar East MLA바카라s rebellious ways, say sources, have irked the high command. Rahul aide and Ludhiana MP Ravneet Singh Bittu says Sidhu 바카라is damaging the party by repeatedly attacking the government when our leadership is trying to resolve the crisis...there should be no place in the party for such indiscipline바카라.
Singh is learnt to have told Sonia that he would urgently employ all the correctives that the high command has suggested, but 바카라cannot be held responsible바카라 for anything that Sidhu does. 바카라We discussed internal matters of the party and whatever decision she takes as far as Punjab is concerned, we are ready to accept. We are geared up for the elections and we will collectively strengthen the party,바카라 Singh told reporters after meeting Sonia.
The public posturing aside, Congress sources admit that the proposed revamp in Punjab will be tricky. A senior party leader says: 바카라Sidhu is insistent on being named the Punjab Congress chief and has rebuffed the offer of deputy chief minister, but the CM and most other leaders are opposed to him being made the state unit president.바카라 Singh, a Jat Sikh like Sidhu, has informed Sonia that the state unit chief must be a Hindu to balance caste/community equations in Punjab. The Congress, sources say, is open to naming Sidhu as chairman of its campaign committee for the election, but he hasn바카라t warmed up to the idea. There are others in the party who believe Sidhu is just another tweet away from quitting the Congress and joining the AAP despite the renegade leader repeatedly dissing Arvind Kejriwal바카라s promise of replicating his famously populist Delhi model of governance in Punjab.
As Congress leaders fight among themselves, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and AAP are already in election mode. They are going after Singh바카라s allegedly autocratic conduct and his government바카라s unfulfilled poll promises. In rural Punjab, anger is growing against inflated power bills and frequent outages, threatening to derail possible gains the Congress may have made due to the farmers바카라 anger against the BJP and SAD over the three contentious farm laws. Rising unemployment, continuing menace of drugs and sand mining mafia, and the government바카라s failure in securing convictions in the 2015 sacrilege cases against SAD leaders have collectively brought the Captain under fire.
Sidhu has accused Singh of working 바카라in cahoots with the Badals바카라 (Akali Dal patriarch Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal) and protecting controversial Akali strongman Bikram Majithia. AAP MLA Harpal Singh Cheema, leader of Opposition in the Punjab assembly, echoes the same view and accuses the CM of giving 바카라huge advertisements claiming his government has fulfilled all its promises.... Everything has been done on paper, while the situation on the ground is worse than it was when the Congress came to power in 2017.바카라
AAP is in the process of unveiling its poll manifesto for the state, a glimpse of which Kejriwal gave recently by promising 300 units of free electricity to every Punjabi household. The party made an impressive debut in the Punjab polls in 2017 by winning 20 of the 117 seats and displacing SAD as the main opposition party against the 77-MLA-strong Congress. In the state바카라s Malwa region, a traditional Akali bastion, AAP won 18 of the 69 seats. However, the party has been in disarray since. Over half of its MLAs have either quit or turned rebels. The party is now trying to lure disgruntled BJP and Congress leaders, including Sidhu, to its fold.
To offset the impact of AAP바카라s populist pronouncements, the Congress is likely to promise similar sops and assert that the Amarinder government바카라s power subsidy model is better than Kejriwal바카라s. Congress leaders insist that the current public anger over overblown electricity bills is the legacy of the power purchase agreements (PPA) of the previous SAD-BJP government that spelt windfall for private thermal power plants at the expense of the public. SAD chief Sukhbir Badal dismisses allegations of his party바카라s largesse to private power companies. 바카라If cancelling the PPAs will give Punjabis cheap power, the Amarinder government must do so,바카라 Badal says, accusing the Congress and AAP of 바카라playing politics바카라 on the issue.
The Congress is also somewhat rattled with the aggressive outreach that its rivals are planning to win over Punjab바카라s nearly 32 per cent Dalit vote bank. Both AAP and the Akalis have promised a Dalit deputy CM if voted to power. A desperate BJP has gone a step further by questioning why the Jat Sikh-dominated state can바카라t have a Dalit CM. The Congress may appoint a Dalit deputy to Singh when his cabinet is revamped in the coming weeks. The Akalis, who until 2017 were the Congress바카라s main rivals in Punjab, have clinched a pre-poll alliance with Mayawati바카라s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The alliance is an attempt to offset loss of Hindu and Khatri Sikh votes in urban areas that the Akalis counted on in the past owing to their alliance with the BJP. The SAD-BJP alliance ended following the Centre바카라s decision to ram through three controversial farm laws in Parliament that have enraged farmers.
Kejriwal has promised 300 units of free electricity to every household in Punjab.
Veteran journalist and rebel AAP MLA Kanwar Sandhu says simply promising the deputy CM바카라s post for Dalits won바카라t guarantee poll victory. Sandhu says the Congress government바카라s performance has been 바카라below par on most counts바카라, but the party still has the best chance of winning the 2022 polls. 바카라If BSP바카라s vote share increases from the 2017 tally of 1.5 per cent to about three per cent, the conversion in terms of seats won can be huge and benefit the Akalis too,바카라 says Sandhu. Congress MP Manish Tewari disagrees, stating that the 바카라SAD-BSP alliance is a non-starter.바카라 The BSP stands little chance of victory in the 20 odd seats allotted to it; we don바카라t even know if this alliance will last till the assembly polls because of the resentment within Punjab BSP over seat sharing.바카라
The only electoral certainty in Punjab that almost all parties agree on is that the BJP is heading for a near-rout. The party was always a marginal political player in the state, piggybacking on SAD. However, it had electoral clout in pockets of the state바카라s Majha and Doaba regions that account for 25 and 23 seats respectively. The wrath of the farmers against the BJP in predominantly agrarian Punjab has now left the party with no allies.
The coming weeks are crucial for the Congress. It needs to display dexterity in dealing with internal turmoil and putting voters at ease. For its rivals바카라AAP and SAD바카라the next nine months will be a test of reinvention and revival, while the BJP may finally realise that muscular policies don바카라t always pay electoral dividends. The Congress is hopeful of retaining the state because of a splintered Opposition and the farmers바카라 anger against both SAD and BJP. But there바카라s a possible twist too. Congress leaders are wary that with the Centre not budging on the farm laws, the more ambitious and aggressive farmers unions may branch out of the 바카라apolitical바카라 conglomerate of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha and prop up 바카라independent kisan candidates바카라, thereby damaging not just the Akalis and the BJP, but even the Congress. Bhartiya Kisan Union leader Gurnam Singh Chaduni바카라s exhortation to farmers for making an electoral foray through 바카라Mission Punjab바카라 is a new political challenge for an already beleaguered Captain to deal with.
(This appeared in the print edition as "The Forced Hand")
