The prospects for peace in Myanmar, much less a return to democracy, seem dimmer than ever two years after the army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, experts say.
On Wednesday, legions of opponents of military rule heeded a call by protest organisers to stay home in what they call a 바카라silent strike바카라 to show their strength and solidarity.
The opposition바카라s General Strike Coordination Body, formed soon after the 2021 takeover, urged people to stay inside in their homes or workplaces from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Photos posted on social media showed empty streets in the normally bustling downtown area of Yangon, the country바카라s largest city, with just a few vehicles on the roads, and there were reports of similar scenes elsewhere.
Small peaceful protests are an almost-daily occurrence throughout the country, but on the anniversary of the Feb. 1, 2021, seizure of power by the army, two points stand out: The level of violence, especially in the countryside, has reached the level of civil war; and the grassroots movement opposing military rule has defied expectations by largely holding off the ruling generals.
The violence extends beyond the rural battlefields where the army is burning and bombing villages, displacing hundreds of thousands of people in what is a largely neglected humanitarian crisis.
It also occurs in the cities, where activists are arrested and tortured and urban guerrillas retaliate with bombings and assassinations of targets linked to the military.
The military, after closed trials, have also executed by hanging activists accused of 바카라terrorism.바카라
According to the independent Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a watchdog group that tracks killings and arrests, 2,940 civilians have been killed by the authorities since the army takeover, and another 17,572 arrested 바카라 13,763 of whom remain detained.
The actual death toll is likely to be much higher since the group does not generally include deaths on the side of the military government and cannot easily verify cases in remote areas.
"The level of violence involving both armed combatants and civilians is alarming and unexpected,바카라 said Min Zaw Oo, a veteran political activist in exile who founded the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security.
바카라The scale of the killing and harm inflicted on civilians has been devastating, and unlike anything we have seen in the country in recent memory,바카라 he said.
When the army ousted Suu Kyi in 2021, it arrested her and top members of her governing National League for Democracy party, which had won a landslide victory for a second term in a November 2020 general election.
The military claimed it acted because there had been massive electoral fraud, a claim not backed up by objective election observers.
Suu Kyi, 77, is serving prison sentences totaling 33 years after being convicted in a series of politically tainted prosecutions brought by the military.
Shortly after the military seized power and quashed nonviolent protests with lethal force, thousands of young people slipped away to remote rural areas to become guerrilla fighters.
Operating in decentralized 바카라People바카라s Defence Forces,바카라 or PDFs, they are proving to be effective warriors, specialising in ambushes and occasionally overrunning isolated army and police posts.
They have benefited greatly from supplies and training provided by the some of the country바카라s ethnic minority rebels 바카라 Ethnic Armed Organisations, or EAOs 바카라 who have been fighting the army for decades for greater autonomy.
"That바카라s not only a very brave thing to do. It바카라s a very difficult thing to do,바카라 Richard Horsey, an independent analyst and adviser to the International Crisis Group, told The Associated Press.
바카라It바카라s a very challenging thing to do, to take on, you know, a military that바카라s been fighting counter-insurgency warfare (for) basically its whole existence.바카라
David Mathieson, another independent analyst with over 20 years바카라 experience in Myanmar, says the opposition바카라s combat capabilities are 바카라a mixed picture in terms of battlefield performance, organisation and unity amongst them.바카라
바카라But it바카라s also important to remember two years in that no one was predicting that they were actually going to be as effective as they are now. And in certain areas, the PDFs have been taking on the Myanmar military and, in many respects, besting them on the battlefield in terms of ambush and pitched battles, taking over bases.바카라
He says the military바카라s heavy weaponry and air power push the situation into a kind of a stalemate where the PDFs are not necessarily taking over large swaths of territory, but fighting back and prevailing.
바카라So no one바카라s winning at the moment,바카라 Mathieson said.
The military government of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has an advantage 바카라 not just in arms and trained manpower, but also in geography.
Myanmar바카라s main neighbours 바카라 Thailand, China and India 바카라 have geopolitical and economic interests in Myanmar that leave them satisfied with the status quo, which largely secures its borders from becoming a major supply route for weapons and other supplies for the resistance.
And while much of the world maintains sanctions against the generals and their government, they can rely on obtaining arms from Russia and China.
Min Aung Hlaing바카라s government is also nominally pursuing a political solution to the crisis it caused, most notably in its promise to hold fresh elections this year.
Suu Kyi바카라s party has rejected taking part, deriding the polls as neither free nor fair, and other activists are employing more direct action, attacking teams from the military government who are conducting surveys to compile voter rolls.
"The regime is pushing for an election which the opposition has vowed to derail,바카라 said Min Zaw Oo.
바카라The election won바카라t change the political status quo; instead, it will intensify violence.바카라
The planned polls 바카라are being run by a regime that overturned the popularly elected government.
They are clearly being seen by the Myanmar people for what they are: a cynical effort to overwrite those previous election results that gave a landslide victory to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy so these are not elections in any meaningful sense of the word,바카라 Horsey said.
바카라They have no legitimacy or credibility.바카라
On the diplomatic front, the military government thumbs its nose at international efforts to defuse the crisis, even those from sympathetic fellow members in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose harshest response has been to not invite Myanmar바카라s top military leaders to attend its meetings.
Myanmar바카라s army government rejects virtually all efforts at peacemaking as interference in its internal affairs.
The resistance, by contrast, actively reaches out for international support. It won small, new diplomatic victories Tuesday as the United States, Australia, Britain and Canada announced new sanctions meant to squeeze the military바카라s revenue and supply lines.
The British and Canadian sanctions are especially noteworthy, as they target the supply of aviation fuel, a move activists have been pleading for to counter the increasing number of airstrikes the pro-democracy forces and their allies in ethnic minority rebel groups have been facing in the field.
바카라Currently, both sides are not ready to seek a political solution,바카라 warned Min Zaw Oo.
바카라The military stalemate won바카라t shift significantly this year, despite more deaths and violence.바카라
