Eight years after the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group helped the Russian government cement its rule in Ukraine바카라s Crimea, it captured a Russian military headquarters, shot down Russian military aircraft, and marched to the capital city of Moscow last week.
By the time a deal was struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, the Wagner Group column was within 200 kms of Moscow. To put it into context, imagine a private military marching to Delhi from the Northeast and reaching unopposed as close as Agra.
While the defiant Wagner uprising and stunning pace of march to Moscow shocked the world, it was not entirely unpredictable. Prigozhin had long thrashed the Russian defence leadership and some experts had said it was only a matter of time before the war of words escalated into a conflict on the ground.
The dramatic day-long mutiny of Prigozhin began on Friday and ended late on Saturday when a deal was brokered between him and the Kremlin with the help of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Wagner mutiny timeline: The 24 hours that shook Russia
While there was a long road to Prigozhin바카라s rebellion, he claimed that the immediate trigger was a Russian military attack on Wagner personnel.
After claiming that Wagner personnel had been attacked by the Russian military, Prigozhin said that he was marching with his private military on a 바카라march for justice바카라 to overthrow the Russian defence leadership. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov were the targets.
Friday
In a series of messages, Prigozhin threatened an armed rebellion. He said he would 바카라go to the end바카라 to stop the Russian defence leadership바카라s 바카라evil바카라.
In his messages, he questioned the invasion of Ukraine and criticised Shoigu for 바카라poorly planning바카라 the war and 바카라embarrassing바카라 the Russian military, according to The Moscow Times.
바카라Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war...The mentally-ill scumbags decided 바카라It바카라s okay, we바카라ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as cannon fodder. They바카라ll die under artillery fire, but we바카라ll get what we want'. That바카라s why it has become a protracted war,바카라 said Prigozhin, as per The Moscow Times.
Prigozhin insisted his military march was 바카라not a military coup바카라 and did not 바카라interfere with the troops in any way바카라 and said that he was targeting the military brass, pointing at Shoigu, according to The Telegraph.
바카라There are 25,000 of us and we are coming to sort things out...Those who want to join us, it바카라s time to finish with this mess,바카라 Prigozhin was quoted as saying.
Prigozhin also called upon the members of the Russian military to revolt against their leaders and join his march.
바카라We don바카라t fight children. Shoigu kills children. He put 18-year-old boys against us. These guys will live and go back to their mothers. But we will destroy everything that gets in the way,바카라 The Telegraph quoted Prigozhin as saying.
Following Prigozhin's threats, Russia was put on a high alert and security in Moscow was beefed up. Counter-terrorism emergency was imposed in Moscow and Voronezh regions. The Russian FSB opened a criminal case against Prigozhin and charged him for mutiny that carries a 12 to 20-year-sentence.
Prigozhin's rebellion was on.
Saturday
1 am: Putin was briefed at around 1 am about the 바카라attempted armed rebellion바카라, according to ABC News.
By that time, Prigozhin's Wagner Group personnel had entered the key Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, which houses the headquarters of the Russian military overseeing the Ukraine war efforts. A statement from the Kremlin at the time termed it a 바카라rebellion바카라 but did not name Prigozhin.
7:30 am: Prigozhin claimed control of Rostov-on-Don and the Russian military headquarters there.
Visuals of the Wagner military vehicles, including tanks and armoured carriers, surfaced on social media.
In a message, Prigozhin announced that Wagner personnel would now march to Moscow.
바카라We will destroy anyone who stands in our way...We are moving forward and will go until the end,바카라 said Prigozhin as he announced Wagner personnel바카라s march to Moscow under their 바카라march for justice바카라.
9:30 am: Wagner personnel were well on their way to Moscow by then. During this time, they were targeted by Russian military aircraft and there were reports that the Wagner personnel had shot down a number of Russian military aircraft. Later, Prigozhin confirmed this.
10 am: In his first reaction since Prigozhin바카라s revolt began, Putin addressed the nation and termed the mutineers traitors.
Putin said that 바카라those on path of treason바카라 would be punished and termed the revolt a 바카라stab in the back바카라. He called the rebellion a 바카라mortal바카라 threat to the Russian state.
The CNN reported, 바카라Putin said the country had been 바카라betrayed by those who are trying to organise a mutiny, pushing the country toward anarchy and fratricide바카라. He said 바카라excessive ambition and vested interests have led to treason바카라. Putin said it was a 바카라blow to Russia바카라, adding, 바카라internal turmoil is a mortal threat to our statehood, to us as a nation바카라."
10 am-5 pm: The Wagner personnel had reached within 480 kms of Moscow by 5 pm, according to ABC News.
The convoy largely passed unopposed except for certain Russian military air attacks that resulted in helicopters being shot down by Wagner.
During this time, as Wagner marched to Moscow, Putin바카라s ally and Chechan leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he had dispatched his troops to intercept Wagner personnel on the way to Moscow. Photographs of Chechen convoys also surfaced on social media.
There were also reports, which could not be independently confirmed, that Chechan special forces personnel had by this time reached the Moscow region to bolster the Russian military바카라s defence against potential confrontation with Wagner personnel.
Kadyrov termed Prigozhin-led Wagner바카라s mutiny as a 바카라hideous betrayal바카라 and pledged support to Putin.
8 pm: Prigozhin announced that he had ordered the Wagner personnel to halt their march to Moscow.
By that time, the Wagner personnel had reached within 200 kms of Moscow.
Later, a deal was announced between Kremlin and Wagner Group, under which Prigozhin would go to Belarus, all charges against him and mutineer Wagner personnel would be dropped, and Wagner personnel would be offered Defence Ministry contracts.
Prigozhin said that he ordered his soldiers to halt and turn around to stop 바카라shedding Russian blood바카라. In a statement issued a day later, he said that the march to Moscow was a 바카라demonstration of our protest바카라 against the 바카라injustice바카라 from the Russian defence leadership and not an attempt to overthrow the government.
바카라The goal of the march was to not allow the destruction of the Wagner private military company and hold to account the officials who through their unprofessional actions have committed a massive number of errors. Society demanded it,바카라 said Prigozhin in an 11-minute statement.
The long road to Wagner mutiny
The Wagner Group's mutiny was neither sudden nor entirely unpredictable.
The Russian elite, particularly in the military leadership circles, had been feuding for a long time and experts said that it was only a matter of time before their war of words turned into a confrontation on the ground.
Earlier, Prigozhin had accused the Russian defence leadership, particularly Defence Minister Shoigu, of poor operations in Ukraine and withholding essential supplies like ammunition from reaching the frontlines. He frequently went into expletive-laden messages against Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Gerasimov.
When the Russian government mobilised soldiers last year, The Moscow Times reported that Prigozhin said that 바카라scumbag바카라 Russian military personnel should be mobilised in place of civilians. Later in January-February, he called the military bureaucracy 바카라monstrous바카라 and said that the slow-progressing Russian military was attempting to 바카라steal바카라 Wagner바카라s victories. Slamming the low supply of ammunition, Prigozhin said 바카라this can be equated with high treason바카라.
In May, Prigozhin said that the Wagner Group was soon going to cease to exist and again called the Russian military leaders 바카라scumbags바카라 for not providing them with ammunition.
바카라All the stories about preventing the Ukrainian reserves from entering Bakhmut are total crap. Not a single shot was made by the Russian Army. Nobody is giving them ammunition. Not to them, not to us. A criminal order was made not to give out ammunition...Ammunition is stacked high in warehouses as I already said before. Scumbags who made these decisions should be answerable to the mothers of those killed in action,바카라 The Drive quoted Prigozhin as saying.
Wagner's revolt was also not directly aimed at Putin, says Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA).
바카라First things first, it was not a coup against Putin. It was the result of a long-drawn power struggle between PMC Wagner바카라s chief Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defence,바카라 says Rao.
Blow to Putin's ironclad grip, setback to war-efforts
Prigozhin's rebellion and the march to Moscow emerged as the most serious threat to the authority of Putin, who has been at the helm of Russia for 23 years.
While the revolt ended without widespread fighting, the very fact that the revolt happened highlights the failure to control the feuding ruling Russian elite and points at weakening of hold over the factions within the Russian oligarchy, say experts.
바카라I'm not sure if it was a coup specifically against Putin. Perhaps, this is a showdown between the elites, for example, against Defence Minister Shoigu. However, it shows the weakness of the Russian government. Even if Putin was not the target of this coup attempt, the fact that the elite are fighting among themselves, ignoring the consequences for his authority, speaks volumes,바카라 says Kseniya Kirillova, an analyst at the Washington DC-based think tank Jamestown Foundation.
Rao of IDSA says 바카라there is no way under the sun바카라 that he would have done it without strong internal support.
Rao tells Outlook, 바카라Prigozhin would have never rebelled if he didn바카라t know for sure that he would get away with it. In my assessment, he has the support of a certain section within the Russian FSB. His confidence and daring drew from at least some support from FSB, a section of Russian oligarchs, and a certain section of Russian public. It is indeed strange that despite his long and aggressive verbal campaign against the Russian MoD, he still survived and thrived without any fear of being terminated that never happened. His Wagner forces marched to Rostov-on-don with no opposition from the Russian army, special forces, or police.바카라
Even when the Russian military made an attempt, Prigozhin's troops repulsed the attacks and faced no consequences.
Rao tells Outlook, 바카라After capturing Rostov, Prigozhin led the column to Moscow and reached within 200 kms of it where on his way when the Russian army tried to stop him, the Wagner shot down army helicopters and even an army plane. But instead of pressing any charges, a quick compromise was reached providing Wagner troops amnesty, offering them to join the Russian army, and asking Prigozhin to operate from Belarus instead of Russia. This shows that his rebellion had credible support within the Russian establishment that not only allowed the unthinkable to happen but also protected the mutineers and their leader from any criminal charges. 바카라
While the target of the rebellion was not Putin, something that Prigozhin also confirmed after reaching a deal with the Kremlin, Rao says that the episode has 바카라seriously dented the invincibility of Putin and infallibility of the Russian state바카라. In the tussle with the Russian MoD over private military companies signing contracts, by going to Belarus, Prigozhin has effectively got what he wanted.
Rao tells Outlook, 바카라Forget being tried and punished for treason, Prigozhin or his fighters were not even fined 10 rubles for making a mockery of the country바카라s defence establishment. All charges against him were dropped and he was asked to go to Belarus scot-free. One major point of tussle between Prigozhin and MoD was the MoD바카라s recent directive to all private military companies to sign contracts with the MoD. This was unabashedly refused by Prigozhin who openly defied the directive. Now that Prigozhin and some Wagner troops have been moved to Belarus, they can register there and bypass the requirement of signing Russian MoD contracts. It definitely does not look like a punishment for treason against the Russian state. Prigozhin has got away with defying the MoD and launching an armed rebellion against the ruling elite. How this impacts his crusades in Africa and the Middle East will be revealed in time. However, the armed rebellion and its handling has shown the vulnerability of the Russian state apparatus and has posed serious questions on the iron-hand control that the world thought Putin had.바카라
Prigozhin's rebellion is a setback to Russian war-efforts in Ukraine and to the ruling style of Putin as it showed that the internal conflicts could not be contained, says Nalin Kumar Mohapatra, Assistant Professor, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).
Mohapatra notes that the rebellion came at a crucial moment in the Ukraine War and Russia 바카라no longer has an upper hand and Ukraine has got a tactical benefit바카라 from the recent developments. He adds that Russia is expected to make a short-term retreat.
As for what led to the mutiny, Mohapatra says that it was a fallout of internal squabbling among the Russian ruling elite.
While Mohapatra says that the mutiny and the march to Moscow is definitely a setback to war-efforts and a blow to Putin바카라s leadership, he says that the President of Russia can also emerge stronger out of the ongoing developments.
Explaining his line of thinking, Mohapatra says that Putin has a circle of oligarchs around him 바카라the Russian elite바카라 that draws its power from him, not the other way around, and he ensures that no one oligarch or faction acquires too much power.
Mohapatra tells Outlook, 바카라Putin does not want any one powerful person to emerge around him. He does not want power to be consolidated in one person. He does not want any centre of power other than himself. To ensure this and to keep power decentralised, Putin allows feuds within the Russian ruling elite so that the elite weaken each other and no one ever becomes powerful enough to challenge his authority.바카라
Rao of IDSA says that Putin and the Russian oligarchs have a symbiotic relationship and not a top-down relationship. Since no Russian oligarch criticized the armed mutiny while it was unfolding, it also shows that there is at least some waning of support to the Ukraine war within the oligarchs too. Perhaps the most credible explanation is the financial losses from thousands of sanctions imposed by the West.
The biggest outcome of Prigozhin바카라s mutiny and Wagner바카라s march to Moscow is the display of cracks in the Russian political and defence elite and Putin바카라s hold on power to the entire world, says Rao, adding that while there were indications that Putin did not have an absolute control that he was often thought to have, the mutiny laid bare Russia바카라s faultlines.
Rao says, 바카라The relationship of Putin and the oligarchy is not a top-down relationship, but a symbiotic relationship. One of the reasons why the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a 바카라strategic blunder바카라 for Putin is that it has turned a credible section of the Russian oligarchy against him. The West has imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian oligarchs and officials who have seen their assets and businesses frozen because of Putin바카라s war. Regardless of the Ukraine War바카라s outcome, these oligarchs know that the sanctions are not going away. This is why there is a growing feeling that supporting Putin바카라s war efforts is no longer in their economic favour.바카라
As for the road ahead, Rao says that the dust has not yet settled. Now that the world sees a weakened Putin with deep internal division, a realignment with Russia and its leader of over two decades is also on the cards.
Rao tells Outlook, 바카라The world now sees Putin and Russia in a new light. It will realign accordingly. The West does not want the situation to get dangerously out of hand. Most countries have officially called this Russia바카라s internal matter. Moscow is also in a hurry to show that its business as usual. Without a powerful leader at the helm, the friction among the competing forces within Russia, as revealed by the short lived rebellion, could lead to further disintegration and disarray. The world cannot afford a headless Russia, the largest nuclear power in the world. It would be a very problematic scenario not only for Europe but for the world and also for India. Despite the reputational damage, I would expect that steps will be taken to salvage the situation.바카라
