Now that the Russia-Ukraine War is into its second year, there are apprehensions in many quarters that it may galvanise into some World War III. The ramification of the war between Russia and Ukraine is not confined merely to these two countries, but the global community is feeling the heat due to the rise in the prices of food grains as well as energy prices.
However, just before the war바카라s first anniversary, the apprehensions reached a decisive phase when Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21 that Russia was suspending its membership of the New START Treaty. He stated, 바카라I am compelled to announce today that Russia is .바카라
Russia바카라s suspension of its membership has raised many pertinent points, thus impacting global disarmament processes. At the same time, apprehensions are emanating from many quarters that there is a signal from Russia that it is preparing for a nuclear war against the West led by the United States. The question that arises here is whether Russia may use a nuclear weapon as a last resort in case of a war? Hence there is a need to study the implications of Russia바카라s suspension of New START Treaty.
The Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement directly blamed the United States for the suspension of the treaty. A ministry official stated 바카라the United States is now openly seeking to inflict a 바카라strategic defeat바카라 on Russia, while tensions encouraged by Washington go far beyond the Ukraine crisis with the United States and the US-led West trying to harm our country at every possible level, in every sphere and region of the 바카라.
Though in the same statement, Foreign Ministry of Russia further outlined, 바카라In order to maintain the necessary level of predictability and stability in the nuclear missile area, Russia will take a responsible approach and will continue to strictly comply with the quantitative restrictions stipulated in the Treaty for strategic offensive arms within the .바카라
One can draw three inferences from the official statement of Putin and Russian Foreign Ministry.
1) The statement of Putin indicates that the United States is responsible for the present strategic impasse caused by the current War.
2) By suspending itself from the treaty, Moscow may be giving an implicit threat to the United States.
3) Russia wants to maintain a 바카라strategic choice바카라 in deploying nuclear weapons against the United States in case of necessity by suspending its membership from the treaty.
Looking at the course of events, it appears that Russia is keen to confront the West and NATO countries directly by deploying nuclear missiles which can lead to World War III.
In this regard, one may recall that when Putin announced Russia바카라s suspension from the treaty, many strategic experts believed this might affect global disarmament. One may recall that the New START Treaty was enacted in February 2011, replacing the old Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT)of 2002. Both the New START Treaty and SORT had primary objective of capping the nuclear missiles of Russia and the United States. Thus, it aimed to ensure some nuclear parity regarding deploying nuclear warheads.
Originally, the duration of the Treaty was 10 years till 2021 but it was extended for another five years till 2026. The Treaty permits 바카라on-site inspections and exhibitions, data exchanges and notifications related to strategic offensive arms and facilities covered by the Treaty, and provisions to facilitate the use of national technical means for treaty 바카라. At the same time, the Provision of the Treaty limits the deployment of 바카라1500 nuclear warheads, 800 ICBM Launcher and heavy bombers바카라 as reported by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). A recent Federation of American Scientists(FAS) study titled Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories shows that Russia has 5,977 and the United States 5,428 nuclear .
Though Russia suspended its membership in the New START Treaty last month, the United States and Russia had accused each other of violating the Treaty even before the onset of the Russia-Ukraine War. One point on which both the United States and Russia are having differing perspectives is that there is no 바카라transparency바카라 over the Treaty바카라s implementation. This generates a sense of mutual apprehensions and security dilemma for both. Another contentious issue between the two sides is the on-site inspection of nuclear arsenals.
The present Russian decision has only aggravated the crisis. During the current war, Moscow and Washington accused each other of violating the treaty more glaringly. The missile attacks against each other by both Russia and Ukraine have also led to a growing escalation of mutual suspicion. This is a fact that Ukraine is currently using the missiles given to it by the United States. In this regard, Russian officials are singling out the attack by the Ukrainian missiles on Russia바카라s Engel바카라s airbase. Similarly, as reported in the press, Russia was accused of subsequent violations of the provisions of the treaty by the United States. All these developments pose more significant challenges to the global disarmament process.
Russia바카라s suspension of its membership from the treaty led to a cautious response from its main adversary 바카라 the United States. US Secretary of State Secretary Antony Blinken said, 바카라The announcement by Russia that it바카라s suspending participation in New START is regrettable and irresponsible. We바카라ll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does. We바카라ll, of course, make sure that in any event, we are postured appropriately for the security of our own country and that of our .바카라
On the other hand, Russian President바카라s Spokesperson Dmitry Peshkov blamed both the West and NATO for aggravating the situation.
바카라If only they wanted, they would have sat down at the negotiating table. There would have been very complex, positional, sometimes irreconcilable talks, but they would have been underway. But they ,바카라 Russian official news agency Sputnik quoted Peshkov as saying.
The above statements of both Bilken and Peshkov reflect the uneasiness and mistrust between Washington and Moscow that contributes to the present strategic impasse. However, the immediate consequence of the suspension of the treaty is that there may be an uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear missiles on the part of both Russia and the United States. Russia바카라s suspension of the treaty is a reminiscence of the United States바카라 withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019.
Even during the Cold War바카라s heyday, the United States and the erstwhile Soviet Union developed institutional mechanisms to halt the proliferation of missiles like PTBT and NPT. The recent stand-off between Russia and the United States over the START will aggravate the uncertainty. It may contribute to a new challenge to the global disarmament process and escalate further arms race. As reported in Moscow Times, Putin just after announcing Russia바카라s suspension from stated, 바카라We won바카라t be the first to conduct them. But if the US does, .
As reported in Moscow Times, Putin also immediately ordered Russia바카라s nuclear agency Rosatom to be ready in case of any future eventuality.
Taking a cue from the present stand-off between Russia and the United States over the current nuclear question, many countries like North Korea, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and China may go for further proliferation of nuclear weapons without any scrutiny. This may aggravate the security challenges to global geopolitics and cause a rise in the illicit proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
In a nutshell, it can be underlined that better sense should prevail and Russia and the United States should reach a consensus regarding nuclear weapon disarmament and an understanding of its ramifications. Steps should also be taken by both Moscow and Washington to resolve other outstanding issues, including the present war between Russia and Ukraine amicably. Peace is paramount for the global community and both Russia and the United States should understand this.
(Nalin Kumar Mohapatra is Assistant Professor at Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views expressed are personal to the author.)
