Vladimir Putin바카라s military aggression against Ukraine is meeting more opposition from Ukrainians than he expected. The Russian president also saw widespread condemnation of his military바카라s aggression in Ukraine at the UN General Assembly. But the opposition Putin faces domestically in Russia is also likely giving him cause for alarm.
There are clear reasons, however, to be sceptical of claims that Putin will soon be deposed in a palace coup 바카라 or that the existing elite could be removed by mass protests.
There are three broad categories of Russians who have voiced their opposition to the war, albeit in different ways. It helps to visualise these as three concentric circles, starting from the largest and closing in.
Anti-war street protests attended by regular citizens have swept the country. Within the first week of Russia바카라s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, at least 7,669 people were detained by police at anti-war protests across Russia according to OVD-Info, a Russian human rights organisation. Those detained include people all the way from primary school children to an elderly pensioner in St Petersburg.
Jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny has called for daily anti-war protests in and outside Russia, referring to Putin as an 바카라insane tsar바카라.
Cultural elite and the intelligentsia
Portions of the intellectual and cultural elite have also voiced their opposition to war 바카라 from TV celebrities to sportspeople and scientists. Beyond individual statements, a flurry of open letters have been signed, including by 44 of the country바카라s top chess players and by academics.
There are already cases, though, of signatories facing negative consequences, including losing their jobs. As well as the detentions at protests, this serves as a clear reminder of the bravery of those publicly opposing the war.
Economic and political elite
What about important economic actors? With the enormous fortunes that stand to be lost because of the west바카라s unprecedented sanctions on Russia, it is plausible that they might speak out.
Some already have. A few of Russia바카라s wealthiest people 바카라 for example, the oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska 바카라 have called for peace. One of the country바카라s largest oil companies, Lukoil, has also called for an end to the war in Ukraine.
But there is clear caution. Calling for peace is not the same as directly criticising Putin, as Fridman has acknowledged.
Some public dissent has also been shown already by minor political officials: for instance, a Russian adviser to the World Bank and a Russian delegate at a UN climate conference.
What about people higher up the political food chain? Today바카라s Kremlinology has begun to resemble that of the Soviet era, where the opacity of politics forced western analysts to scrutinise material like photographs of official events to glean insights into intra-elite dynamics.
In similar fashion, people are now trying to read the body language of senior officials during meetings with Putin for signs of disquiet. One notable example relates to an image of Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia바카라s Central Bank, captured looking glum with her arms crossed and eyes down at the opposite end to Putin of a comically long table.
So far, however, there are no signs of significant cracks at the top. And that바카라s no surprise 바카라 Putin has surrounded himself with hyper-loyalists, the inner circle of which share his impression of a west intent on undermining Russia and his rule. Even if members of the broader political elite are deeply shocked by 바카라 or disagree with 바카라 Russia바카라s assault on Ukraine, the costs of voicing dissent or trying to exit the system are overwhelmingly high. For the moment, at least.
The true depth and breadth of opposition
It바카라s very difficult to measure the true extent of opposition to the war 바카라 and to Putin personally 바카라 across these three groups, as well as to work out how this might change over time.
The Russian president바카라s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has said that the 바카라level of support for the president, for his decisions, and his actions is very, very high바카라. According to the Kremlin-friendly VTsIOM polling agency, 68% of Russians support Russia바카라s activities in Ukraine, with another Kremlin-aligned agency, FOM, reporting that 71% of Russians trust in Putin following the start of Russia바카라s military operation, up from 60% just before the invasion.
How can this be? Russian state media continues to portray a very different reality to the coverage in western media. Rather than a full-scale assault, the narrative is of a 바카라special operation바카라 to protect ethnic Russians in the so-called 바카라republics바카라 of Donetsk and Luhansk from 바카라genocide바카라 being carried out by Ukraine바카라s 바카라neo-Nazi바카라 government.
Words like 바카라invasion바카라 and 바카라war바카라 are banned in Russian media. Independent outlets have been blocked or shut down. And Russians face the prospect of harsh punishment for challenging the state바카라s line on the conflict.
A bleak outlook
The degree of opposition going forward depends on a number of factors, including the Russian military바카라s ability to subdue Ukrainian forces. The scale of economic hardship in Russia will also influence public opinion. But a lot will also depend on the Russian state바카라s capacity and willingness to repress dissent at home and continue to control the narrative. We바카라ll see economic problems and the deaths of Russian soldiers continue to be blamed by the Kremlin on the west.
Putin has staked his survival on this. And we바카라ve seen what he is capable of doing to critical voices: the incarceration of Navalny and the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 being just two examples. Given the steps that have already been taken to respond to domestic opposition, it is likely that 바카라 in the short term, at least 바카라 we will see a doubling down of repression, including to prevent any cascade of dissent that might shake the very foundations of the regime. (The Conversation)
