Bangladesh, in recent decades, has been ruled by two women. The first one, Khaleda Zia, led a regime that was corrupt, anti-Indian and governed with the fundamentalist Islamic group Jamaat-e-Islami, before she lost power. Sheikh Hasina, who came in next, was not very different. But despite allegations of corruption and a growing autocratic way cropping up against her, it was her avowed commitment to secularism that made the Awami League leader India바카라s preferred choice as an ally.
For New Delhi, backing Hasina meant safeguarding the interest of Hindus, while taking care of India바카라s security priority in keeping the eastern flank stable.
That position of comfort and dependability is being questioned by many in Bangladesh and India. They want New Delhi to review its decade-long position and deal with the emerging reality in Dhaka.
The discomfiture stems from the Bangladesh prime minister바카라s recent cosiness with radical Islamic groups like the Hefazat-e-Islam바카라which demands imposition of stricter Islamic law, including a blasphemy code바카라and has started worrying liberal sections in Bangladesh as well as the Indian foreign policy establishment.
Many wonder if this budding entente with Islamists is just part of an Awami League tactic to face the challenge of the year-end parliamentary polls. The worse fear, of course, remains that of Hefazat members eventually exerting significant influence over government policies to fundamentally alter the pluralistic nature of Bangladeshi society.
바카라There is an intense debate within the Awami League government over this crucial issue,바카라 says information minister Hasanul Haq Inu. Other Awami League insiders also admit that the PM바카라s tactic vis-a-vis the Hefazat has created consternation within a party rank-and file wary of having any truck with Islamic groups.
Even though an identity forged by the Bengali language played an overwhelming role in the bloody and glorious liberation struggle of Bangladesh and crafted a new nation바카라s image before the outside world, the Islamic identity바카라though relegated in the background바카라has remained vital. As leader of the world바카라s fourth largest Muslim nation, Hasina is acutely aware of Islam바카라s crucial role in her country. For years, she has been trying to strike a balance바카라for remember, her regime tried and executed top Jamaat leaders for their criminal roles during 1971 (though decried by many in the country and abroad) and so made implacable enemies of radical Islamic parties바카라between Awami League바카라s secular ideals and Islam.
Some in Bangladesh now fear about that balance being disturbed through some of Hasina바카라s policies as she unabashedly tries to woo the Hefazat. Last June, she removed the Lady of Justice바카라s statue from the entrance of the Dhaka High Court premises after the Hefazat complained about the 바카라idolatrous practice바카라. It was reinstalled further away after an outcry.
Then there were silent changes in school textbooks, with secular content from subjects like literature and history removed and Islamic content pushed in. Works by non-Muslim writers바카라titans of the language like Bharatchandra Ray, Saratchandra Chattopadhyay and Rabindranath Tagore바카라were removed and replaced.
Next, Hasina withdrew her party바카라s participation in the celebrated dawn procession, the 바카라Mongol Shubhojatra바카라, on Poila Boisakh, the Bengali New Year바카라s day. Again, in the name of 바카라mainstreaming바카라, the Dawah-e-Hadith course taught in Hefazat-run madrassas was now to be accorded the status of a postgraduate degree.
The Hefazat claims to be a pressure-group of madrassa teachers and students that was formed in Chittagong in 2010, ostensibly with Saudi funds. As the organisation with its network of madrasas spread, close links were formed with the Jamaat-e-Islami. It became apparent during the Shahbagh Movement of 2013 that spearheaded the move to build a national opinion for executing top Jamaat leaders for alleged 바카라war crimes바카라. With Jamaat on the backfoot, Hefazat members mobilised thousands of its students and teachers. With a rallying cry of 바카라Islam under threat바카라, it laid siege to Dhaka. It was broken after a bloody crackdown by security forces, leading to bloodshed and loss of life.
With some of its top leaders executed and the rest either in exile or in hiding, it is interesting why Hasina is pandering to the demands of such radical Islamists as the Hefazat. Awami League insiders say this is to pre-empt their inevitable alliance with the Jamaat and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Hasina바카라s personal popularity notwithstanding, many of her ministers are perceived to be corrupt and do not inspire Bangladeshis. Most observers, including those in the Awami League, feel the party might lose if the year-end elections are held in a 바카라free and fair바카라 manner.
바카라Over the last two years, Hasina has become exceedingly unpopular and, by association, India, which is being blamed for supporting her regime,바카라 says BNP secretary-general Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.
For India though, Hasina continues to be the best bet. Though aware of rampant corruption in the Awami regime, Hasina바카라s autocratic style and the unpopularity this has spawned, she has delivered on India바카라s security interest바카라cleaning up the country of elements who were launching anti-Indian activities from Bangladeshi soil. Moreover, New Delhi바카라s past experience with the BNP is anything but inspiring. Despite promises and assertions by the BNP leadership about the need to build strong ties with India, a natural ally, most Indian policy-makers are wary of BNP rule. If the party grabs power, it is Khaleda Zia바카라s son and heir-apparent Tarique who is likely to take over. Indians see Tarique as under complete control of pro-Pakistani elements in the Bangladesh armed forces. Worse, he appears to be a puppet in the hands of the ISI.
바카라Tarique is a most misunderstood, and much-maligned figure in the Indian establishment,바카라 says BNP바카라s standing committee member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury. 바카라He really wants to put the past behind him and make a fresh start with India, towards strong bilateral ties.바카라
Few Indians would accept Chowdhury바카라s argument. South Block believes the day BNP wins the elections, Tarique, now in exile in London, will be on the next flight back to Dhaka, soon to be followed by a revival of anti-India elements in Bangladesh.
The coming months are crucial for Bangladesh. Begum Zia, who was sentenced to five years in jail for corruption by a Dhaka court may spend the polls in her solitary cell. In the mean time, Hasina may try to get rid of some of her corrupt ministers and start a dialogue with BNP leaders for their participation in the elections. It바카라s unlikely that without Khaleda바카라s release the BNP will participate. Without BNP, the Awami League may again get reelected uncontested in most seats, like in 2014. But the credibility of Bangladesh as a parliamentary democracy will be severely eroded before the world.
However, the prospect of spending another long spell in the wilderness may force BNP leaders to take to the streets and mobilise support and demand Khaleda바카라s release. As polls draw near, Bangladesh could well plunge into violence and political instability. If that happens, will Hefazat link up with its former allies, disregarding Hasina바카라s policy of 바카라mainstreaming바카라 them? The jury is out on whether the Hefazat, so pampered by Hasina, stays by her side in times of strife.
By Pranay Sharma in Dhaka
