Smarting under India바카라s rising stocks in a region that has traditionally stood by it in past crises, Pakistan has launched an aggressive diplomatic campaign to enlist the unequivocal support of Gulf nations on Kashmir and recover its status as their most coveted South Asian partner. Much of Pakistan바카라s dismay stemmed from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain바카라s decision on August 24 to separately confer their highest civilian awards on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a leader Imran Khan had been trying to present as the chief tormentor of Kashmiris.
To make matters worse, US President Donald Trump, who the past few weeks had been dangling the 바카라mediation between India and Pakistan바카라 carrot before Imran as a spur to restart the stalled dialogue, agreed with Modi that the two neighbours should resolve the Kashmir issue bilaterally. Modi and Trump met at the G7 Summit at Biarritz, France, where the PM was present as a special invitee of French President Emmanuelle Macron, indicating a growing closeness between the two sides as well as India바카라s growing global clout.
After their August 26 meeting, in which Modi informed Trump why there was no scope for an outside presence in India-Pakistan affairs, the two leaders held a joint press conference바카라marked by mutual bonhomie바카라and told newsmen that South Asian countries should use bilateral talks to resolve outstanding issues.
For Pakistan, Biarritz came as a major diplomatic setback, as Islamabad had been banking on Trump to force 바카라third party mediation바카라 on India. Soon after the dispiriting development, Imran decided to take his countrymen into confidence바카라in a nationwide televised address he vowed to remain a tireless ambassador for the Kashmir cause despite the challenges before Pakistan.
Earlier last week, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also the Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of UAE, presented the 바카라Order of Zayed바카라 on Modi, an award reserved for leaders of very close, important countries. And within hours of Modi바카라s arrival in Bahrain (the maiden Indian prime ministerial visit), he was awarded the King Hamad Order of the Renaissance by King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa of Bahrain. Apart from UAE and Bahrain, a number of other Islamic nations, including Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Afghanistan and Maldives have also similarly honoured Modi.
The decision to present Modi with the Order of Zayed, sources say, was taken in April, when the UAE leadership was convinced of his victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Yet, like life itself, timing plays a crucial role in diplomacy. The conferral of the honours by UAE and Bahrain on Modi at this juncture shows that for many Gulf leaders, the issue of Kashmir is just not big enough to spoil their relations with India.
However, Imran tried to put up a brave front in the face of these setbacks. 바카라I will tell the world about this, I have shared this with heads of states I have been in contact with. I will raise this issue in my speech at the UN General Assembly,바카라 he assured Pakistanis.
Keen observers of the Gulf have indeed detected a change in the attitude towards Kashmir among key players. 바카라From 2001 onwards, key Gulf countries had made it clear that Kashmir was not a big issue for them. It is a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan that should be resolved by them through peaceful negotiations,바카라 says Talmiz Ahmed, former Indian ambassador to both Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Though Imran acknowledged this reality, he attributed the lack of action by these 바카라Muslim countries바카라 to 바카라selfish reasons바카라. 바카라If some Muslim countries are not raising this issue because of their economic interests, they will eventually come on our side. They will have to, with time,바카라 he said optimistically. Continuing his aggressive drive, Imran also called up Saudi crown prince Mohamed bin Salman and apprised him of the situation in Kashmir in the wake of India바카라s decision to scrap the state바카라s special status.
Yet, despite Imran바카라s relentless campaign바카라much of which is meant as optics for common Pakistanis바카라there is a creeping realisation among the Pakistani establishment that the situation in the Gulf and their attitude towards the India-Pakistan dispute have changed significantly.
A few key developments in the past decade or so have brought about this change in the Gulf바카라s attitude towards India. Over eight million Indians live and work in the Gulf, with three million each in Saudi Arabia and UAE. While 9/11 and the Mumbai terror attacks of November 2008 both played a key role in a reassessment in the Gulf towards Pakistan and terrorism, India바카라s growing economic heft, both as an investment destination and as key Gulf investor, has elevated its status there. The Gulf Cooperation Council is India바카라s largest trade partner, with a volume of over $104 billion. Interestingly, in a departure from the past, it is not all concentrated in the oil sector바카라indicative of the multifarious economic bonds of today. However, the Gulf바카라which hosts five million of its citizens바카라is crucial for Pakistan too. The region happens to be its key investment and trade partner as well.
India and the Gulf countries have now moved away from a buyer-seller relationship, even though nearly 50 per cent of India바카라s energy needs are met by them. But unlike India바카라s sole dependence on West Asia for petroleum in the past, increased competition in the oil and gas sector from the US and Australia has meant that countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE are interested in holding India in a tight economic embrace. The two-way investment in the energy and infrastructure sector between India and the Gulf has created a relationship that is more sustainable and long-term.
According to Ahmed. 바카라This does not mean that the Gulf is rejecting Pakistan in favour of India.바카라 He points out that the changed scenario shows that they have been able to realise the importance of both the South Asian neighbours for different reasons바카라India as a huge market as well as a source for investment, while Pakistan continues to be important for its military and in the field of security.
바카라While they make it clear that Kashmir is no longer an issue for them to get rattled about, they would like both India and Pakistan to normalise bilateral ties,바카라 adds Ahmed.
But, with the immense pressure that goads him to take a hardline position and castigate every Indian move in J&K, will Imran Khan be able to create the right atmosphere that will convince India to start thinking about engaging with Pakistan in a meaningful manner?
The coming weeks certainly will not allow any such rapprochement, as both the Indian and Pakistani premiers head for New York for the UN General Assembly, where they will try to convince world leaders with their side of the story on Kashmir. Beyond that lies the great unknown.
Maybe the dust will settle down and the two hostile neighbours will find the required space and reasons to resume talks and move forward. In the throes of the current acrimony, that seems to be the tallest of asks.
