China's Tactical Support To Pakistan On Kashmir Leaves India On Dicey Pitch

Its western neighbour바카라�s steadfast rec­alcitrance바카라�the feelings are now mutual바카라�has stemmed in part from its pathological hatred towards the idea of India, as manifested through direct or sponsored acts of terror in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in India, most horrifically in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.

Despite going to war with India in 1962 over the unresolved boundary, China has had a more pragmatic approach in its rel­ations with New Delhi, where cooperation and competition have both been par for the course. Increasingly though, that distinction is getting blurred. Beijing has been stepping out repeatedly to shield Islamabad from initiatives taken by New Delhi to internationally marginalise Pakistan to force it to give up terror as its only foreign policy tool against India. It is significant, therefore, that the question is finally being asked: is Pakistan becoming a major impediment in improvement of Sino-Indian relations?

바카라�Pakistan has always been an issue in India-China relations,바카라� says C. Raja Mohan, director, Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Sin­gapore. 바카라�But now, it has become a lot sharper.바카라�

It was the two-and-a-half-month military standoff between Indian soldiers and those of the People바카라�s Liberation Army at Bhutan바카라�s Doklam plateau that had hastened the informal summit between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi in Wuhan in April last year. Nearly 18 months later, as the Chinese president is invited by the Indian prime minister to Mamallapuram for a second informal summit (likely to be held from October 11-13), the 바카라�Pakistan factor바카라� again looms large.

The most recent of these points of sharp divergence has been China바카라�s making common cause with Pakistan  at the UN Security Council against India바카라�s decision to revoke Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.

바카라�Actually, relations have acquired new wrinkles since Wuhan,바카라� says former Ind­ian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. He points out that China reacted sharply to constitutional changes in J&K. Despite Union external affairs minister S. Jai­shankar바카라�s explanations during his visit to Beijing that it had no implications for external boundaries, it did not ameliorate China바카라�s hostility. It assisted Pakistan to place the Kashmir issue on the UNSC agenda after 50 years, then administered a double blow by making a public statement on behalf of the Security Council, contrary to normal practice. 바카라�It also had the temerity to speak of human rights vio­lations by India. Though it has modified its position on J&K by alluding to UN resolutions,바카라� adds Sibal. He points out their immediate fallouts: postponement of the next round of meetings of the special representatives on the boundary issue and that of the northern area commanders바카라� meeting scheduled in China.

China바카라�s overt show of support for Isla­mabad was also seen early in March, on Pak­istan바카라�s National Day celebrations in Islamabad, when it flew past a squadron of its J-10 fighter jets. That it came soon after the potentially combustible Pul­-w­ama/Balakot incidents was not missed by anyone.

Then there was the mulish stand on Masood Azhar. For years, China, by virtue of being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, had put a 바카라�technical hold바카라� on the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief from being declared a 바카라�global terrorist바카라�. It finally relented in May this year, agreeing to lift the hold on stamping Azhar as such.

China has also consistently prevented India바카라�s membership in the Nuclear Sup­pliers바카라� Group (NSG), arguing that it has to be done in conjunction with Pakistan바카라�s membership. It had similarly delayed India바카라�s entry to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and agreed only after Islamabad too became a member.

바카라�Pakistan remains a serious factor in India바카라�s relations with China,바카라� says Sibal. China, he feels, would have noted with concern the statements from Indian leaders on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir recently because of their implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). If a conflict occurs with Pakistan, the China factor immediately internationalises it.

바카라�China is hitting at our weakest spot by supporting Pakistan; this cannot be overlooked by us,바카라� adds Sibal. 바카라�It will remain an inhibiting factor in developing optimal ties, along with China바카라�s territorial provocations.바카라�

Sino-Pakistan relations have grown over the years바카라�perhaps owing to the principle of close ties with 바카라�enemy바카라�s enemy바카라�. Ties started moving forward from the mid-1950s, when Pakistan dropped the Republic of China government in Taiwan in favour of the People바카라�s Republic of China in Beijing. It soared to a higher plane after the Sino-Indian boundary war when, through a 1963 agreement, Pakistan conceded a sizeable chunk of territory in PoK to China.

In subsequent years, Pakistan has provi­ded China a window to the Islamic world, as also allowing its territory to be used by the Chinese as a listening post to US activities in the region. It is also a major market for Chinese military hardware, accounting for nearly 47 per cent of all sales, and a major investment destination for China. The $60 billion CPEC is at the core of China바카라�s Belt and Road Initiative, giving it overland access to the Indian Ocean.

Yet, despite its cosiness with Pakistan, China has been balanced in dealing with India-Pakistan bilateral issues on many occasions. As historian Srinath Raghavan argues, both during the 1965 and 1971 India-Pak wars, Chinese action backing Pakistan was limited to iss­uing demarches. It also kept a hands-off approach through the 1990s, even during the Kargil conflict after the nuclear tests of 1998. Indeed, this was a phase when the Chinese leadership asked Pakistan to keep aside the perennially contentious Kashmir issue and focus on areas like trade and economic cooperation to improve ties with India. There was, of course, a limit to China바카라�s neutrality. In 2008, even when a Chinese national was among those killed by Pakistani terrorists during the Mumbai attack, China pointedly refused to join India and others in condemning Islamabad.

바카라�China is concerned about terrorism but to the extent that it doesn바카라�t reach its Mus­­lim areas,바카라� says Pakistani strategic commentator Ayesha Siddiqa. Pakistan is important to China, she says, because it바카라�s a long, tested relationship. They have good defence-industrial ties and China has used Pakistan for decades to market its weapons elsewhere. 바카라�Besides, Pakistan acts as a good balancer vis-a-vis India,바카라� Siddiqa adds.

Former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon, however, argues that China started leaning more towards Pakistan with the thickening of India-US ties. In his book Choices, Menon wrote that the US-India deal had 바카라�provoked a natural rebalancing (leading China to move closer to Pakistan) that we were probably slow to anticipate.바카라�

Where does India stand in the face of its neighbours바카라� close embrace? Most experts feel that though the 바카라�P factor바카라� has negatively impacted Sino-Indian relations and forms the backdrop of the informal Xi-Modi summit, Modi and Xi will try not to allow it to affect ties beyond a point.

바카라�In the last one year, we saw the attempt was to keep the border tranquil,바카라� says Raja Mohan. There is a mutual awareness of the need for restraint and for a stable boundary, he adds. Raja Mohan feels that while the Chinese are concerned about where India is going with the US, India will be worried about Chinese activities in its neighbourhood. 바카라�There has to be trust. Even if differences cannot be res­olved, there should be some understanding on what the other side is doing,바카라� he says. 바카라�There has to be assurances that the red lines are not crossed.바카라�

As Xi and Modi have a freewheeling disc­­ussion on these vexatious issues,  their conversation will also focus on ways to strengthen the economic partnership between the two sides. In fact, the spiralling trade tensions between China and the US could afford opportunities for India and China to work for mutual benefit.

바카라�Jobs have to be created, for which we need heavy investment from China,바카라� says Alka Acharya, professor of JNU바카라�s Institute of Chinese Studies. Though she feels India may not show its hand on allowing Huawei access for 5G technology in the country yet, progress is likely on other areas of trade access and investment.

She points out that Chinese investment in India바카라�s infrastructure sector could employ large numbers of uns­ki­lled workers and may help ease some pressure on the government. Progress also beckons in other areas, like giving more access to Indian pha­rma firms for marketing cheap drugs in China바카라�a huge domestic market바카라�and revive other mutual commitments.

Cooperation between the reg­ions of China and Indian states could also boost investment and trade. 바카라�Basically, it is fine-tuning existing hurdles and giving what had been agreed a push,바카라� adds Acharya.

But the meeting between Xi and Modi takes place when global affairs are in a state of unusual flux, increasing unpredictability. One such is the Indo-Pacific area바카라�one of immense importance to both China and India.

바카라�The Indo-Pacific is a vast maritime space,바카라� says C. Uday Bhaskar, director, Centre for Policy Studies. 바카라�Both India and China ought to evolve a polit­ico-military framework where there can be a functional engagement and cooperation in a mutually acceptable manner,바카라� he adds. This, he feels, could address the bandwith of safeguarding interests and assuaging anxieties.

But the biggest question continues to nag us: can they work together? According to Uday Bhaskar, this will depend on Modi and Xi바카라�s perspicacity, strategic acumen and 바카라�the quality of advice given them by their principal advisors바카라�. This apart, the two countries can work together for a stable West Asia.

바카라�Both India and China have very high stakes in West Asian stability,바카라� says Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian diplomat. Both countries, underlines Ahmad, depend on the region for oil and gas imports and have very significant economic interests. The region is India바카라�s principal trade partner and source for investment. For China, bes­ides trade ties, it is the locale of several multibillion-dollar projects that are being executed by Chinese companies. Besides, the region is extremely impo­rtant to both countries for their connectivity projects.

바카라�The region바카라�s deteriorating security situation is thus a matter of great concern for both nations,바카라� says Ahmad.

Modi and Xi had also been talking of working together in Afghanistan. But as India바카라�s former ambassador to the country, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, poi­nts out, discussions will now have to be taken to the implementation stage by the two governments.

Realistically speaking, what will the two leaders bring to the table when they meet later this month? What, indeed, will be their take-away?

Maybe, an indication could be found in what foreign minister S. Jai­shankar said recently during a conversation in the Council for For­eign Relations in the US. He adm­itted that there are differences bet­ween India and China on a number of issues바카라�the boundary dispute, despite several rounds of negotiations, still remains unresolved. But the nations have also evolved a mechanism to add­ress those differences. It has been a very stable, very mature relationship. Most important was his pithy comment: 바카라�Frankly, it is not a relationship that has given cause for anxiety to the world for many, many years.바카라�

For all the tension involving our western neighbour, it is quite possible then, that in an increasingly unpredictable world, India-China ties will be a bulwark of stability.

***

Ayesha Siddiqa
Pakistani strategic writer

바카라�China is concerned about terrorism only to the extent that it doesn바카라�t reach its Muslim areas. It has allowed Pakistan to handle the Taliban. Pakistan-based terrorists don바카라�t hurt China and have strategically stayed away from it. They do not threaten CPEC. But if the Iran-US war comes to the region and Pakistan is seen supporting the US, there may be problems.바카라�

Talmiz Ahmed
Former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia and UAE

바카라�India and China enjoy high esteem and carry considerable diplomatic clout in West Asia. They can put in place a regional security arrangement. This will call for considerable effort and patience. India and China do have bilateral concerns, but they also have areas of convergence. West Asia is one such issue where their interests converge.바카라�

Kanwal Sibal
Former foreign secretary of India

바카라�China would have noted with concern the statements of our leaders on PoK because of its implications for CPEC. If a conflict occurs, even if limited, with Pakistan, China would help Pakistan internationalise it. China is hitting at our weakest spot by supporting Pakistan. It will remain an inhibiting factor in developing optimal ties.바카라�

C. Uday Bhaskar
Director, Centre for Policy Studies

바카라�India, along with many nations including US and Russia, have upheld the rule of law and customary practice in the maritime domain. The South China Sea dispute, involving nations with competing claims, is a sore point. But it would be misleading to infer that the whole gamut of India-China maritime cooperation is predicated on the S. China Sea.바카라�

C. Raja Mohan
Director, South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

바카라�The Chinese would have concern on where India is going with the US. India will have concerns about China in its neighbourhood. They will have to be addressed carefully. There has to be trust. While differences can바카라�t be resolved there should be understanding of what the other Is doing.바카라�

Alka Acharya
Professor, Chinese Studies, JNU

바카라�Huawei will be kept hanging in balance. Prime Minister Modi might try to see what else he can get from the Chinese President before he concedes. Huawei is also caught up in the world바카라�s strategic debate. This obviously will be something that the Chinese will push for. Getting India in the kitty on this issue will be good for them.바카라�

Gautam Mukhopadhaya
Former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan

바카라�There is potential for parallel, even coordinated activities in investment in Afghanistan바카라�s mineral sector and connectivity through Central Asia to Chabahar and also in countering extremism. But though there has been exploratory contacts at the track two level, China바카라�s position remains too wedded to Pakistan to allow meaningful cooperation. China바카라�s CPEC through PoK is another factor.바카라�