India and Pakistan are stuck in a time warp. The world has moved on since 1947, when both countries got independence from British rule. Today, with the advent of AI, we are on the verge of the fourth industrial revolution. But the subcontinental neighbours are unable to shake off the history of partition that brought Kashmir into focus. The narrative set over 75 years ago continues to haunt India and Pakistan.
On April 22 afternoon, as images of blood-splattered holiday makers gunned down by terrorists in Pahalgam surfaced, Kashmir once again grabbed the headlines. Finger-pointing at Pakistan followed. But it was the next day, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short an official visit to Saudi Arabia and held a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), that India formally named Pakistan. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters that at the CCS 바카라the cross-border linkages of the terrorist attack were brought out바카라. But Misri provided no details.
Pakistan quickly denied any involvement and deplored the terror strike. It also asked New Delhi to provide evidence to support the charge. Pakistan바카라s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says he is open to a 바카라neutral, transparent바카라 probe into the Pahalgam attack.
We are back to the familiar cycle of accusations and threats. While India accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Kashmir, Islamabad charges New Delhi with aiding terror outfits in its restive Balochistan province. Soon after the hijacking of a passenger train in Balochistan on March 11, Islamabad called out India as the 바카라main sponsor바카라 of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Again, no evidence was provided.
There is public anger across the country. Many, including India바카라s media channels, are baying for blood. Much of this has to do with the fact that under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister Modi, ultranationalism is at its height. As a rising world power, India should not hesitate to give Pakistan a crushing blow. This section of people wants Modi to emulate Israel바카라s Benjamin Netanyahu. Beating the drums of war is one thing, but taking it to the practical level can have dangerous consequences for both countries that have nuclear capability. The Pakistan Army may be stretched for now바카라fighting in Balochistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces바카라but all resources will be mobilised to stave off India if push comes to shove.
On a visit to Bihar, which goes to elections later this year, Modi thundered: 바카라Today, from the soil of Bihar, I want to say to the whole world that India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist, supporter and conspirator. We바카라ll pursue them to the end of the Earth. They will be punished beyond their imagination.바카라 It is implicit in Modi바카라s remarks that India will take action. The question is what will it be? Another surgical strike like in 2016 after Uri or a dogfight after Balakot in 2019? No one knows what the government has in mind. But obviously not an all-out war. More so as Modi was widely appreciated for his remarks to President Vladimir Putin that 바카라this is not the era of war바카라.
India-Pakistan Wars
The first war (1947-1948) took place immediately after Independence, when Pakistan tried to seize Kashmir by force. The Hindu ruler of the Muslim-majority princely state of Kashmir was reluctant to join either India or Pakistan, but quickly signed the Instrument of Accession to India when he found that he was unable to defend his state. The second was in 1965, with Pakistan pushing to take over Kashmir militarily. The Indian army stood its ground and the 17-day war ended with the Tashkent Declaration. Both armies vacated the territory they had seized. The 1971 War of Liberation led to the bifurcation of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh. It was a decisive victory for India with the surrender of over 90,000 Pakistani soldiers. The Pakistan Army has yet to forget that humiliation.
In 1999, a few months after the Lahore Declaration signed between Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, when peace seemed a possibility, General Pervez Musharraf, the then army chief of Pakistan, sent in troops to occupy the mountain tops of Kargil. He was determined to sabotage the peace efforts. India reclaimed the Kargil heights, but at the cost of many lives on both sides.
If the current tensions lead to a full-scale war, China바카라s role is a question that India바카라s policymakers cannot ignore.
A war between nuclear-armed neighbours, with Pakistan often boasting about tactical nuclear weapons that can be used in the battlefield, is a nightmare not just for India and Pakistan, but for the entire region. Former US President Bill Clinton said in 2000 that South Asia was the most dangerous place on earth. The world is watching the developments in South Asia closely.
바카라There is concern here that this might not just lead to a wider conflict with uncertain results, but also an understanding that such attacks are just unacceptable. The broader significance is not yet clear,바카라 says Ian Hall of Australia바카라s Griffith University. 바카라If attacked, Islamabad may look to Beijing or elsewhere for support, but China has long argued that Pakistan needs to rein in the Islamists and stop terrorism. That leaves Pakistan on its own, and then we have to hope the country behaves with restraint and caution,바카라 adds Hall.
Expectedly, after the terror attack, India announced a slew of measures to further downgrade relations with Pakistan. Most were routine바카라whittling down embassy personnel, closing the Attari-Wagah border, and withdrawing South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa facilities for Pakistan. Islamabad responded the next day with similar announcements and stopping Indian flights over its airspace.
Water Wars
But this time, India brought in a new element by targeting the flow of water to Pakistan바카라by keeping the Indus Water Treaty in 바카라abeyance바카라. The treaty had survived wars and frequent diplomatic stand-offs, but this time, while not walking out of the 1960 agreement, Delhi threatened to use water as a coercive tool Pakistan has said that any attempt by India to divert the waters would be considered as an act of war and the nation would respond with full force. Water is an emotive issue everywhere. Pakistan is already facing a severe water shortage. If India diverts or stops the water flow to Pakistan, a lower riparian state, it will affect the lives of millions of poor peasants.
바카라Sindhu is ours and it will remain ours,바카라 Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, chairman of the Pakistan People바카라s Party, reacted and warned: 바카라Either water or your blood will flow in this river.바카라
After partition, the rivers of Punjab were divided between India and Pakistan. India got control of the eastern rivers바카라Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej바카라while Pakistan got exclusive rights to the flow from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, or the western rivers.
바카라The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India is considered to be legally defensible under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969. India views the Pahalgam attack as a substantial and material change in circumstances. The suspension lifts restrictions on dam design and reservoir operations, giving India leverage over water flow, especially during Pakistan바카라s crucial sowing season, putting pressure on the agrarian economy,바카라 says ambassador Anil Wadhwa. 바카라This could be a risky long-term strategy. As a middle riparian state, India also depends on China, which holds sway over the headwaters of the Indus originating in Tibet and the Brahmaputra in the east. The Indus Water Treaty, therefore, has to be viewed against the larger framework of transboundary river cooperation,바카라 Wadhwa explains.
The China Factor
China바카라s economic, political and military might that challenges the US is today바카라s reality. In case the current tensions lead to a full-scale war between India and Pakistan, China바카라s role is a question that India바카라s policymakers cannot ignore. Pakistan and China relations are locked in an ironclad grasp. Their ties are described as 바카라higher than the mountains, deeper than the sea, sweeter than honey, and harder than steel바카라. So will China step in to help? 바카라As an ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan바카라s legitimate security concerns and supports its efforts to uphold its sovereignty and security interests,바카라 Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, told his Pakistani counterpart in a phone call, Global Times reported.
Some in India believe that India바카라s growing relations with the US will stand New Delhi in good stead if China takes the plunge. And diplomatic and military aid may be forthcoming if that happens, but America is too far away, unlike China which is next door. India is in the middle of modernising its defence capabilities, but it is a task half done. It will be hard-stretched to fight a two-front threat from China and Pakistan.
India and China have just begun the process of normalising ties that went into deep freeze after the military confrontation of 2020. 바카라I doubt China will do anything. Their own stand on domestic terrorism by Islamist groups is strong. They may issue some anodyne comment recommending de-escalation. That too, if a question is posed to their spokesperson,바카라 says historian Srinath Raghavan, who tracks China closely.
The hope is that both countries will pull back from the brink. 바카라This negative cycle needs to be brought to an end. One cannot change neighbours. History and culture unite us. The way forward is to cooperate,바카라 says Salman Bashir, former foreign secretary of Pakistan. But who is listening?
Seema Guha is a senior journalist covering foreign affairs
This article is part of Outlook바카라s May 11, 2025 issue, covering the Pahalgam terror attack and the old wounds it has reopened. It appeared in print as 'The Siren Is Wailing'.
