The first grim tidings came from the state to its south, with the bar graph of success dipping in height conspicuously. But the party pulled through in Gujarat, and it was left to Rajasthan to wear the taint of outright defeat, even if only in three bypolls. Chief minister Vasundhararaje, as she emerged to describe the drubbing as a 바카라wake-up call바카라 for the BJP, had an uncharacteristic air about her: sedate, shorn of that usual sense of pomp, deep in thought. With caveats, that perhaps describes the mood in the party nationally too, as it nears the home stretch to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It was to be an unquestioned mandate, drawing on the limitless Modi cheque for the second time. But with just a year shy of Lok Sabha campaign time, the BJP finds itself a trifle apprehensive, in a way they had not anticipated.
With good reason. If the trend of diminishing returns seen in Gujarat/Rajasthan persists in the assembly polls later this year, it would not just be a marker of receding popularity but could itself create a negative momentum. The key problem for the BJP is this: the party is already at its peak in 12 big states (see graphic), with a whopping 284 out of a total 332 seats in its kitty or that of its NDA allies. It cannot climb further바카라if anything, the graph can only go south in most of the states. And if the erosion in its core zones is steep, making up for it in the potential buffer zones will be tough.
It바카라s clear that the BJP, having read the signals, is mindful of a certain disillusionment with governance issues that Modi바카라s personal charisma and appeal are barely balancing. That바카라s why it바카라s enlarging its strategic options, if not exactly rewriting its blueprint. So Modi바카라s clean image is still a key propaganda item바카라especially since the Indian public still hasn바카라t recovered from the UPA-era scam exhaustion. DeMo will still be marketed as a move towards probity바카라and GST, and now the elite bugbear LTCG, as essential reforms. Hindutva will be there, unfailingly, with Yogi Adityanath billed as a star campaigner. But beyond that usual script, there is now a new welfarist vocabulary바카라things like Modicare, being spoken of as a 바카라game-changer바카라, and the Ujjwala scheme that바카라s already reached LPG connections to 3.2 crore women and is targeting 8 crore.
Party leaders are not letting slip any sign of nervousness but admit they may have to depend on allies for the final numbers. 바카라Even if we lose some seats in the next elections, we will still form the government. The benchmark the BJP set in 2014 is very high. It바카라s possible that we may not get majority single-handedly,바카라 concedes a party leader involved in number-crunching. The BJP had won 282 seats on its own in the 543-seat house, attaining a majority on its own. With allies, it stands at a formidable 336.
On one thing there바카라s no ambiguity. Modi remains the trumpcard, as was seen in the Gujarat campaign: he batted single-handedly and almost non-stop on a very dicey pitch and ensured a BJP victory against all odds. The Modi magic evidently endures, and seen against less solid assets, the overwhelming reliance on it is both visible and understandable. 바카라The PM will remain our mascot; his clean image and work will win us a second term. He바카라s seen as a bold, decisive leader who enhanced India바카라s prestige in the world. Nobody can stop Modi from coming back in 2019,바카라 predicts party general secretary Muralidhar Rao. If the incantatory tones are still heard, it바카라s because they still work like a charm.
The BJP has another asset: the Opposition. It바카라s fragmented, directionless and without a strong, salient focal point to gather all anti-Modi feelings. Rao pooh-poohs the possibility of a united Opposition fighting the BJP in 2019. 바카라When India바카라s Opposition couldn바카라t unite to fight the British, it definitely won바카라t be able to take on a respected leader of the country like Modi,바카라 he laughs.
Rajasthan Congress chief Sachin Pilot
But it will still take lots of seats바카라states that can be alternate catchment areas. What about the two states under Rao바카라s charge바카라Karnataka and Tamil Nadu? The party will win the Karnataka assembly polls and definitely improve its tally of 17 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats there in 2019, he insists. On Tamil Nadu, he promises only a 바카라respectable presence바카라 on its own. To be sure, it바카라s a fluid picture바카라with even superstar Rajnikanth in the mix바카라but whichever way it turns, the BJP can always go there shopping for allies.
Party vice-president and Rajya Sabha MP Vinay Sahasrabuddhe finds himself in one of the unenviable 바카라maximum states바카라: he바카라s in-charge of Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP already has 26 of 29 Lok Sabha seats. No room to improve, plenty of room to fall. 바카라If the party loses some seats, it바카라s bound to gain in other places. Whether the losses and gains match or not remains to be seen. Both government and party are working hard,바카라 he says, almost philosophical in tone.
Soon after the BJP came to power in 2014, it started working on breaking new ground. Sahasrabuddhe was entrusted with a membership drive aimed at making the BJP the world바카라s largest party바카라the base now stands at over 13 crore. At that time, the aim was expansionist: to take the BJP바카라s footprint to non-traditional areas like the Northeast and what it calls the 바카라Coromandel states바카라 i.e. the South plus Orissa and West Bengal. But now it바카라s working out differently, like an extra bank account it can draw from in crisis.
바카라The BJP바카라s tally in West Bengal is two out of 42. And Orissa is represented by a solitary BJP MP, in a total of 21. The party will gain in both states, which send 63 MPs to the Lok Sabha,바카라 says a BJP general secretary. 바카라In Bengal, the BJP is second, though a distant second, while the Left and Congress are nowhere in the picture. In Orissa too, we바카라ve gone to number two. Any vote against the ruling BJD will come to us. Adhyakshji (party chief Amit Shah) had the foresight to extend the party footprint. That바카라s how Assam was won and we took power in Manipur for the first time.바카라 The BJP sees the often neglected Northeast as a fertile area. A party leader active there cites the region바카라s 25 Lok Sabha seats, of which at present the NDA has only 10.
But the real struggle will come in its old fortresses: holding on against a tide is always tougher than riding the crest of a wave. And there are a multiplicity of factors to manage, a combination of the local and the national. Take Rajasthan. Vasundhara had not allowed the BJP to name a sangathan mantri바카라or general secretary (organisation)바카라for the state for the major part of her tenure. It바카라s only five months ago that Shah finally installed his trusted lieutenant, Chandra Sekhar, there (he had worked closely with Shah during the UP assembly polls as in-charge of its western regions).
바카라The cadre here are quite demotivated. Chandra Sekhar didn바카라t have enough time to invigorate them before the bypolls,바카라 admits a party senior. 바카라But positive results should be visible in time for the assembly polls.바카라 The not-so-veiled message to Raje has been to change her ways or make way for a change. 바카라She has responded positively and is working on her style of functioning,바카라 the leader adds. Avinash Rai Khanna, party vice-president and Rajasthan in-charge, has no time for despondency either. 바카라Why are we forgetting BJP바카라s record win Dholpur last year? It wasn바카라t even our traditional seat. There바카라s no need to be pessimistic,바카라 he says. The first focus is the assembly polls. 바카라We have 160 out of 200 seats. It바카라s a challenge to retain the seats and we will,바카라 says a determined Khanna.
Finally, there바카라s the infantry바카라the Hindutva footsoldiers of the larger parivar, the BJP바카라s biggest strength. A UP-based BJP leader, veteran of many wars, has this to say: 바카라Our workers along with those of the RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal and other sister organisations are spread all over the country, ears to the ground. They have the voters바카라 pulse. Our critics can call them the fringe element or whatever. They are the ones who know what바카라s happening, what people want. We know from them the wind is still blowing for what the BJP stands for.바카라
By Bhavna Vij-Aurora in New Delhi
