Rahul Gandhi's Nyuntam Aay Yojana Is The 'Final Assault On Poverty'. Really?

The jury is still out on whether Congress president Rahul Gandhi바카라�s poll promise to 20 per cent of India바카라�s poorest of a minimum income guarantee of Rs 72,000 per annum is a fiscally prudent idea. Or, in the immediate term, whether it can be a game-changer in the Lok Sabha polls. But the question was evidently urgent enough for the Modi ­dispensation to respond with something dramatic바카라�to up the game from aerial dogfights to space missiles. For, after over a month of being in an awkward reactive mode since Pulwama-Balakot, it seemed as if the Congress had ­succeeded in steering the Lok Sabha poll narrative away from the BJP바카라�s chest-thumping triumphalism.

As a policy promise, it was a deft hand that the Congress played. The feasibility of NYAY바카라�Nyuntam Aay Yojana바카라�is secondary at the moment. What matters is the extent to which it can strike an emotive chord. And steer the ­conversation back to unemployment, agrarian distress and poverty바카라�the Achilles heel of Prime Minister Narendra Modi바카라�s government. In short, to take the game away from where the BJP plays strong: election rhetoric dominated by a cocktail of jingoistic nationalism and Hindutva pride. Judging from the BJP바카라�s own response, it바카라�s not ­underestimating NYAY.

But will it suffice to make up for the ground the Congress has lost in common perception? The Balakot air strikes didn바카라�t just create a talking point: intangibles like the ­바카라�public mood바카라� have a material effect on political affairs. The air had suddenly seemed favourable for the Congress after its spectacular victories in the assembly polls last winter. There was a new spr­ing in its step바카라�even a touch of ­smugness in its social media voices, a sense of having ­바카라�arrived바카라�. A 바카라�grand바카라� Opposition alliance seemed at hand. After Pulwama-Balakot, the script bottomed out. Buoyancy was replaced by an air of desperation, then resignation. Alliance talks started foundering all over the place. All of a sudden, 2019 seemed a no-contest.

That바카라�s where this new edition of Garibi Hatao comes in. In Rahul바카라�s dogged struggle to shake off the infantile image of him spun by his critics and get taken seriously as prime ministerial material, NYAY may be the most ambitious step yet, in both form and content. Linguistic felicity is one trait rarely attributed to the Gandhi scions. But NYAY, the acronym, was coined by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. (Twitter wits were also offering MIG-19!) At the more substantive level, Rahul says the fine print바카라�the nuts and bolts of how they intend to raise the money required to deliver a guaranteed minimum income of Rs 12,000 per month to five crore households바카라�will be spelt out in the party바카라�s manifesto. Also, the logistics of identifying the beneficiaries.

Nor is it a hastily sketched scheme바카라�the blueprint has been in the works for over eight months, say party sources. Rahul was keen that the manifesto committee, headed by former FM P. Chidambaram, prepares a realistic scheme etching out a 바카라�new paradigm바카라� in social and financial inclusion. His brief was simple: it should be easy to execute and easier to explain to the masses. A sou­rce privy to the consultation says Rahul personally called on several noted economists, including JNU바카라�s Prof Arun Kumar, to understand different models of universal basic income from across the globe. Ideas were also sought from Dr Amartya Sen, though it was not clear whether Rahul had personally met the Nobel laureate or sent an emissary. Dr Manmohan Singh too was in the loop.

The only real surprise was the timing, and that speaks of a new savvy about the nature of the game. Rahul바카라�s decision to announce the scheme on March 25, sources say, was unscripted. It went like this. It was that very day that Chidambaram brought the draft of the party manifesto, with details of NYAY, to the CWC. After a thorough discussion, Rahul said he wanted to go public on NYAY immediately instead of waiting for the formal launch of the ­manifesto, scheduled for early April. He ­obviously wanted it to inflect the public mood, and allow enough time for the news to filter down everywhere before the first phase of polling on April 11.

Its subliminal messaging is key. 바카라�For voters in the 18-40 age bracket angry at Modi for taking away their jobs or wiping out their savings post-­demonetisation, a vote for NYAY is a referendum against the BJP바카라�s policies,바카라� says Congress MP P.L. Punia. 바카라�For those who remember the social inclusion programs of Indira and Rajiv Gandhi, NYAY is an extension of what the Congress has traditionally stood for.바카라� For the economically distressed, it promises a return to the maternalistic care of 바카라�big government바카라�, a tempting idea in times when the economic weather mostly suits big business.

Rahul바카라�s words were well-chosen in that respect. He called the scheme a 바카라�final assault on poverty바카라�, and framed it within a logical formula바카라�바카라�If Modi can give money to India바카라�s richest, the Congress can give money to the poorest people of this country.바카라� Reluctant politician? Well, this is a changed Rahul, one who knows how to weaponise his words, one invested with a coherent politics and sense of timing. The spin Rahul gave to NYAY is logically congruent with his broadsides against Modi바카라�the 바카라�suit-boot ki sarkar바카라� and 바카라�chowkidar chor hai바카라� taunts, the charge of 바카라�stealing Rs 30,000 crore from Indians to give to Anil Ambani바카라�. Besides, of course, being strongly reminiscent of Indira Gandhi바카라�s iconic 1971 poll ­slogan바카라�Garibi Hatao.

No wonder the BJP and its IT cell shot back with the ­slogan바카라�바카라�chauthi peedhi, vahi naara, arey yeh hain poore nakara바카라�바카라�accusing the dynasty of falling back on a 48-year-old slogan. FM Arun Jaitley called it a 바카라�bluff바카라�, ­saying Rs 72,000 is 바카라�less than 2/3rd바카라� of existing direct benefits. But all the protestations only seemed to ­embolden the Congress. 바카라�They are nervous because they know people haven바카라�t forgiven them for their Rs 15 lakh jumla. And the loan-waivers by our ­governments in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan days after being voted to power has assured people that we don바카라�t make false promises,바카라� former Union minister Kumari Selja told Outlook. Another senior Congress leader feels the average voter will only think of 바카라�Rs 72,000 coming into their accounts바카라�, not 바카라�calculate how much they currently get under X,Y,Z schemes바카라�.

The 2019 elections are obviously playing to an open script바카라�the game is on till the last voter punches a button on May 19. But has the Congress done enough to take a standing leap from its disastrous score of 44, and the 19.52 per cent voteshare, of 2014? Has the Grand Old Party, all of 134 years of age, put on a new coat of paint appealing enough to voters used to Modi바카라�s teflon? Even if December 2018 punctured Amit Shah바카라�s barb of a 바카라�Congress-mukt바카라� India, the fact is that it바카라�s absent or in ­serious attrition over large parts of India바카라�s political map. Before this winter, over a dozen assembly polls had ended in ignominy for the Congress. Rahul바카라�s helmsmanship seemed underwhelming바카라�his simplistic oratory and ­propensity for gaffes embedded deeper the derisive ­appellation of 바카라�Pappu바카라� the BJP stuck on him.

But starting with the scare the party gave to the BJP in Gujarat, a transformation was visible. Veteran journalist Harish Khare says, 바카라�There바카라�s no doubt Rahul has matured in politics. Many changes he has brought are for the better and were unthinkable during Sonia Gandhi바카라�s time.바카라� For ­instance, the way he allowed 바카라�the three musketeers of Gujarat바카라�Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani바카라�to almost run the show in the assembly polls바카라�. There are other 바카라�unthinkable changes바카라� too, not necessarily kosher in terms of political ethics but a step up in strategic nous. Take the way Rahul shed the Congress바카라�s traditional hard secularism to experiment with soft Hindutva바카라�­asserting his Shiva-bhakt, janeudhari identity, allowing a rightward lurch on Sabarimala, opting for tactical silence on mob lynchings of Muslims.

At a personal level, criticism about his lack of concentration바카라�renegade Himanta Biswa Sarma바카라�s 바카라�dog and biscuit바카라� barb being the harshest바카라�has ebbed. Rahul now regularly interacts with (and listens attentively to) academics and professionals. There바카라�s also a new spiffiness to the party바카라�s social media outreach. The party manifesto, sources say, reflects ideas that came up in this interpersonal space, as also crowd-sourced ones. At the organisational level, Rahul has been working to break the status quoism of the Sonia days. The change 바카라�is slower than expected바카라� only because 바카라�the party바카라�s electoral space has diminished and alienating veterans would force them to join the BJP or others바카라�, says a senior Congressman. By not rushing the enthronement of young faces like Sachin Pilot, he has avoided repeating his father바카라�s mistakes of the mid-바카라�80s. This was no 바카라�Pappu바카라�바카라�as he told students at Berkeley in 2017, that was only an 바카라�image created by people the BJP paid to malign him day and night바카라�.

The challenges before him have, however, not stopped piling up. No prime ministerial aspirant can afford to ­ignore Uttar Pradesh, the one state that boasts the ­maximum native-born PMs, and here the picture stays muddled. The qualified entry of Priyanka, and her decision to stick to campaigning (that too mostly in eastern UP), was a bit like forfeiting what the party has often called its brahmastra. Nor has she created much of a groundswell on the ground, say worried partymen. As for Rahul, at a more general level, he doesn바카라�t command the respect Sonia does from other Opposition leaders. They see him as their ­junior in politics and, more importantly, as someone who stands in their way of going for prime ministership.

This reflects in the party바카라�s alliance woes. Take the ­on-again-off-again talks with AAP, or the royal snub the Congress got from the SP-BSP in Uttar Pradesh. When the Left backed out in Bengal, it was more of a mood-spoiler than something with a huge numerical consequence. That came in Andhra Pradesh, where CM N. Chandrababu Naidu바카라�the key spirit of the pan-India anti-Modi alliance plan바카라�called off the TDP바카라�s pre-poll pact with the GOP.

So critics have enough to pick on. 바카라�The Congress is like a blind bull in the cropping field,바카라� says former Rajya Sabha MP from Telangana, Rapolu Ananda Bhaskar, who quit the Congress last week. 바카라�It바카라�s making itself irrelevant in states that were strongholds just five years ago. There바카라�s utter confusion and poll sops like NYAY won바카라�t compensate for the lack of an organisation on the ground.바카라� Aligning with the TDP for the Telangana ­assembly polls was 바카라�suicidal바카라�, he says, ­adding that 바카라�all­owing himself to be manipulated by Naidu바카라� was a sign of Rahul바카라�s ­political immaturity. 바카라�Why did he ally with the TDP in Telangana, where Naidu is hated because of his opposition to the statehood movement? Naidu has conveniently snapped ties now,바카라� he points out.

Congress media cell chief Randeep Singh Surjewala is a trifle defensive on the point, but says the 바카라�impression that we have failed to keep our traditional alliances is wholly incorrect.바카라� He cites the NCP in Maharashtra, RJD in Bihar, DMK in Tamil Nadu, JD(S) in Karnataka, the Congress-led UDF in Kerala, NC in Kashmir, and the latest바카라�the four-party 바카라�grand alliance바카라� with JMM et al in Jharkhand.

Can the excitement and hype over NYAY force a rethink among other Opposition parties? Armed with this ­potential vote-catcher, Rahul is likely to shed his ­repetitive ­diatribe on Rafale. 바카라�That had stopped getting any traction with the masses long back바카라�. With NYAY, Rahul can talk about unemployment and poverty with greater force and link it to Modi바카라�s crony capitalism. Rafale won바카라�t go away, but will become more tangential,바카라� says a member of the Congress바카라�s publicity panel.

It바카라�s a pan-India policy blueprint, but the Congress is particularly interested in ­taking the NYAY message to the rural and semi-rural areas of the north. 바카라�These are the regions where, despite rising ­unemployment and agrarian distress, people were getting swayed by Hindutva. Unlike southern states, where we have strong alliances, here the contest is largely bip­olar between us and the BJP,바카라� says a party source. Of course, it바카라�s never too late to have a Mani Shankar Aiyar or, current favorite Sam Pitroda, throw a full toss in the slog overs and give the game away. But the battle for Raisina Hill has ­become more exciting.